Matty Johns: Has Adam O’Brien taken Newcastle Knights as far as he can?
Adam O'Brien has delivered what the Knights were after when appointing him, but some powerbrokers feel he’s run his race. MATTY JOHNS reveals where the cracks started appearing and why the resolution is murky.
NRL
Don't miss out on the headlines from NRL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
It’s been a rough week in Newcastle.
It started with the news that Knights coach Adam O’Brien was on the brink of being sacked.
It didn’t come as a huge surprise. O’Brien, for the past two seasons, has coached with little clear air, the strain in plain sight at most post-match press conferences.
The axe hasn’t fallen immediately, but there are mixed reports about his future.
Suggestions he is at long odds to be at the helm next season, with only a stunning late-season turnaround a potential saviour.
Or that powerbrokers are willing to back him to start 2026 in charge, unless there’s a catastrophic end to their current campaign.
There’s no doubt it’s a tough call. The Knights have endured a horror run of injuries this season and O'Brien, in many ways, has delivered what the club was after when appointing him; a coach who could stabilise the team and deliver consistent finals appearances.
That’s a big achievement. In the previous five seasons before O’Brien’s arrival, the Knights had suffered a three-peat of wooden spoons and finished in 11th place twice.
But some Knights powerbrokers obviously feel O’Brien has taken the team as far as he can.
A fair call, given in all the Knights’ finals appearances they never looked a team who could seriously challenge for the title.
CRACKS START TO APPEAR
Some believe O’Brien began his walk on the plank the moment he made the statement regarding Knights fans booing the team off at halftime against Manly.
“Those people that booed don’t know anything about rugby league,” O’Brien said.
He was big enough to apologise publicly the next day but making that comment about a fan base who have stuck loyal during a 20-year period which has delivered far more pain than joy, was an error in judgement.
PRECARIOUS PONGA POSITION
For Knights fans, the news on their coach was just the left jab. The big right cross connected a few hours later with reports a New Zealand-based rugby union agent has been shopping their superstar, Kalyn Ponga, to European rugby clubs.
Despite Ponga taking to social media on Thursday to reiterate that he’s “committed to the end of 2027”, there’s been a nervousness among the club and fans about his future for the past year, with the representative fullback openly expressing his desire to one day play for the All Blacks, combined with rumours that several cashed-up NRL clubs were planning to poach Ponga from the Steel City.
However, some view this as an opportunity for the Knights.
Ponga has had a horror few years with injury and allowing him to walk would free up salary cap space and allow the Knights to regenerate their playing roster.
I completely disagree. A Ponga exit would be devastating for the club on numerous levels.
Firstly the obvious, from a performance perspective, Ponga makes the Knights a dramatically better side.
His late-season return from injury in 2023 didn’t just save their season but saw him make an incredible surge to win the Dally M medal.
But it’s more than just on-field contribution. It’s about the clubs marketability, sponsorship, profile and the big one, the ability to retain and recruit players.
KALYN THE RECRUITER
Recruitment is already a problem for the Knights. There’s no better evidence than having to give Dylan Brown a $13 million, 10-year contract to convince him the red-and-blue jersey is a good fit.
But for Brown, it was also the lure of playing alongside someone he openly admires, Ponga.
Without Ponga, $13 million may not have been enough.
Recruitment is about to get a lot more difficult.
The NRL is on the brink of a free agency frenzy.
The arrival of the Perth Bears in 2027 and PNG in 2028 will spark a period of signing madness which, according to one leading player agent, hasn’t been seen since Super League.
The Bears are on the clock and will begin an aggressive raid on the player market from November 1.
A year later, PNG will hit the free agency market with the lure of tax-free dollars.
Never in the game’s history will recruitment be so difficult.
That places the Knights in a precarious position. A player of Ponga’s quality simply couldn’t be replaced and losing him would make the ability to recruit quality players dramatically more difficult.
And it’s what it does to future plans.
THE DYLAN BROWN CONUNDRUM
The Knights’ next five years is based around a Brown/Ponga attacking partnership.
Doubts already exist around Brown’s ability to wear the halfback jersey and steer the team. Without Ponga, these doubts would double.
This week there were reports Parramatta coach Jason Ryles told Brown several weeks back he was free to leave for Newcastle this year, before the June 30 transfer deadline.
Ryles was keen to start planning for a future without Brown and was unable to guarantee him his preferred five-eighth position, hence Joash Papalii’s selection in the No.6 jersey and Brown being shifted to hooker against Penrith and named 18th man against Canberra.
Brown chose to stay at the Eels and not get a jump-start on his decade-long Newcastle career, raising slight concerns among Novocastrians about his enthusiasm to join their team.
FRACTURED PATHWAYS SYSTEM
The next few years are crucial for the Knights, they must do a better job in their own backyard.
The Hunter Valley is one of the great rugby league regions, with one of the biggest junior catchments, but the club isn’t enjoying the spoils it should.
It’s not the fault of the current administration, they’ve inherited a long-time problem where the junior coaching has been poor and talent identification worse, all the while homegrown future stars have been pinched from under their noses.
The Knights’ future recruitment might be at the mercy of an increasingly competitive market, but its junior nursery is in its own hands.
More Coverage
Originally published as Matty Johns: Has Adam O’Brien taken Newcastle Knights as far as he can?
Panthers resurgence continues as cruel Souths curse strikes again
The Penrith Panthers’ stunning resurgence has continued with a sixth straight win, as the Rabbitohs’ cruel injury curse claimed another two victims in their seventh loss in a row.
Brailey steals the show as Sharks get finals run back on track
Cronulla star Blayke Brailey has once again shown why he is the form player of the NRL competition, as the Sharks ripped the Roosters apart to secure a crucial win.