Where can the Yamahas beat Marc Marquez and Honda to a MotoGP race win in 2014?

YAMAHA is running dangerously close to going winless in MotoGP season 2014. Where can they do it? Kevin Magee and Chris Vermeulen tell us.

HOHENSTEIN-ERNSTTHAL, GERMANY - JULY 11: Jorge Lorenzo of Spain and Movistar Yamaha MotoGP leads Valentino Rossi of Italy and Movistar Yamaha MotoGP during the MotoGp of Germany - Free Practice at Sachsenring Circuit on July 11, 2014 in Hohenstein-Ernstthal, Germany. (Photo by Mirco Lazzari gp/Getty Images)

WITH just six rounds to go in the MotoGP world championship, the odds of Yamaha posting a victory are lengthening with every passing weekend.

Honda have routed the men in blue this season, Marc Marquez sweeping to 11 wins while Dani Pedrosa picked up the crumbs when the wunderkind had a bad day in Brno.

As close as Yamaha has got to a win.

There is a very real risk that Yamaha could go the season winless. The last time that happened was in 2003, when Valentino Rossi was still a Honda man, Jorge Lorenzo was in his second-year as a 125cc rider, and the all-conquering Marquez was celebrating his 10th birthday.

Where are there best chances? SPEED’s two-wheel experts Kevin Magee and Chris Vermeulen give us the rundown on where Yamaha could break their duck.

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Misano 2013.

MISANO
Last year: 1 — Lorenzo, 2 — Marquez, 3 — Pedrosa

KM: Lorenzo’s won the last three MotoGP races there and, after his effort at Silverstone, he might be up for it.

CV: If it’s hot, the place doesn’t offer a lot of grip on the edge of the tyre, which Lorenzo stays on for a lot longer than the others. Plus, if it’s going to be hot, Bridgestone are going to bring that harder tyre compound that he doesn’t like. And the way that place is, with a lot of stop and start, I think that the Honda, in its corner entry, is going to have the advantage. And I think Marquez and Dani will be able to hold the pace longer than the Yamahas will.

KM: Rossi will also be keen as it’s his home track. I wouldn’t count him out purely on his passion to do well there. But then, that can also lead to ending up in the gravel pit ...

Verdict: Not good, but possible.

Aragon 2013.

ARAGON
Last year: 1 — Marquez, 2 — Lorenzo, 3 — Rossi

CV: I reckon that will be a good chance. The back straight may be a small disadvantage for them, and accelerating out of that slow hairpin. But with the longer corners there, it might suit Yamaha reasonably well.

KM: They’ll probably get hammered on the straight, but they’ll give it back to them in the corners.

Verdict: Good chance despite the long straights.

Motegi 2013.

MOTEGI
Last year: 1 — Lorenzo, 2 — Marquez, 3 — Pedrosa

CV: Lorenzo’s been strong there in the past, and last year he was really dominant. It looked like Marquez and Dani had it all over him, and then with about eight laps to go he pulled the pin and pulled about four seconds on them, he just smashed them. And I know Yamaha have been doing a lot of off-season testing at Motegi. Let’s see if it helps them.

Verdict: Very good chance.

Phillip Island 2013.

PHILLIP ISLAND
Last year: 1 — Lorenzo, 2 — Pedrosa, 3 — Rossi

CH: This is going to be their best chance to take it to Honda. It’s a track where you do stay on the edge of the tyre for a long time and, conditions being right, that will suit Lorenzo. There’s really only one hard stopping point, into Honda hairpin. The Hondas will have the advantage into their ‘own’ corner, but the Yamaha will be the better package for the rest of the track.

KM: And there’s no slow corners to accelerate hard out of. There’s only really the run out of Honda, and all you’re doing is going to Siberia, so you get minimal advantage.

CV: They hit over 330 km/h down the straight, but you’re coming onto the straight in fourth gear. There isn’t that massive acceleration. Then going into Turn 1, you’re not on the brakes for that long.

KM: It’s all about corners that joint. There’s really only one straight, and the only other bit is before you brake into Honda. Both Rossi and Lorenzo are in with a good chance there.

Verdict: Their best chance of the six remaining races.

Sepang 2013.

SEPANG
Last year: 1 — Pedrosa, 2 — Marquez, 3 — Rossi

CF: I think Sepang will be a difficult one for the Yamahas to hang with the Hondas. The hairpins and the straights; they’ll lose out in acceleration and they’ll also lose out under braking into the hairpins, because you’re on the brakes for such a long time, and that’s where Honda has a bigger advantage.

Verdict: Will be very tough.

Valencia 2013.

VALENCIA
Last year: 1 — Lorenzo, 2 — Pedrosa, 3 — Marquez

CV: I think it’ll be more of a neutral track between Yamaha and Honda, it’ll be more down to the riders. That place is strange. It’s really tight and twisty, and there’s not a lot of time difference between everyone.

KM: Watch for Rossi here. I reckon he’ll be strong at Valencia, especially if he hasn’t won a race heading into it.

Verdict: Too close to call, but Yamaha can win there.

WET WEATHER
If it rains during any of the events ahead the boys think Honda may have the edge, but don’t rule out the wet-weather skills of the Yamaha men.

CV: I think wet conditions will just play into Hondas hands. It seems like their electronics system is more adaptable to changing conditions. So if there’s just one wet session and then the race, I think Honda will get the bike on the money faster than Yamaha will.

KM: Lorenzo struggled with his confidence at Assen, but I think he’s well and truly over that given the way he’s riding now. I think he put all that behind him over the summer break.

CV: It’ll also depend on where it’s slippery. When Assen gets cold and wet like that it doesn’t feel comfortable. He obviously has bad memories from there and, if he’s then had a moment very early on, it’s got in his head. As long as he gets comfortable and gets his knee down early, he’ll be fine.

Originally published as Where can the Yamahas beat Marc Marquez and Honda to a MotoGP race win in 2014?