Kevin Magee says big question of MotoGP year is can Marc Marquez back up rookie success?

THE big question as a new MotoGP season gets underway in Doha: Is Marc Marquez a one-hit wonder or a potential legend of the sport?

MARC Marquez, 21, became the youngest ever Premier Class World Champion in the 64-year history of MotoGP last year, an achievement made even more impressive by doing it in his rookie year.

The question, as he prepares to start his defence in Qatar on Sunday, is will the Spaniard be a one hit wonder, or go on to restructure the record books in more ways than any rider before him?

The only other rider to become champion in his first season was 27-year-old Kenny Roberts in 1978.

Roberts went on to defend that title in 1979 and made it a hat-trick in 1980.

Marquez never defended either of his previous World Titles; the 125 in 2010 and Moto2 in 2012 — in both cases he graduated up to the next higher class instead.

Now he finds himself in a new position, at the top of the Premier Class — the pinnacle in world championship motorcycle road racing. Many World Champions have said before that it is harder to defend the World Championship than win it to begin with.

Repsol Honda MotoGP rider Marc Marquez of Spain speeds at the Losail International Circuit during a free practice in Doha, Qatar on Thursday.

WHAT’S NEW?

The Grand Prix Commission have released some new rules for the new season.

1. The Championship ECU and software will be mandatory for all entries with effect from 2016.

All current and prospective participants in the MotoGP class will collaborate to assist with the design and development of the ECU software.

During the development of the software a closed user website will be set up to enable participants to monitor software development and to input their suggested modifications.

2. With immediate effect, a manufacturer with entries under the factory option who has not achieved a win in dry conditions in the previous year, or new manufacturer entering the championship, is entitled to use 12 engines per rider per season (no design freezing), 24 litres of fuel and the same tyres allocation and testing opportunities as the Open category. This concession is valid until the start of the 2016 season.

3. The above concessions will be reduced under the following circumstances:

Should any rider, or combination of riders nominated by the same manufacturer, participating under the conditions of described in clause 2 above, achieve a race win, two second places or three podiums places in dry conditions during the 2014 season then for that manufacturer the fuel tank capacity will be reduced to 22 litres. Furthermore, should the same manufacturer achieve three race wins in the 2014 season the manufacturer would also lose the right to use the soft tyres available to the Open category entries.

In each case the reduced concessions will apply to the remaining events of the 2014 season and the whole of the 2015 season.

“Factory” entries have a 20 litre fuel capacity, down from 21 last year, a limit of 5 engines, sealed before the first practice at the first GP, therefore engine development during the season has been frozen and they will be running their own software.

“Open” entries get 24 litres of fuel, 12 unsealed engines, therefore able to do development throughout the season, standard Dorna ECU software and a soft tyre option, which may upset the regular frontrunners. How these new rules will pan out over 18 Grands Prix, from March 23rd at Qatar until 9th of November at Valencia will be very interesting indeed. Dorna’s goal is to have the entire field running under the Open class rules by 2016.

Marquez is battling injury but looked in a relaxed mood in Doha.

POST AND PRE-SEASON TESTING NOTES

Marquez was fastest overall at Valencia last November, followed by Smith, Lorenzo, Bradl, Pedrosa, Bautista and Rossi.

Sepang Feb 4th, 5th and 6th saw Marquez again fastest overall from Rossi, Lorenzo, Aleix Espargaro, Bradl, Pedrosa and Marquez.

The World Champion celebrated his 21st birthday on Feb 17th, only to break his right fibula (smaller bone between knee and ankle) two days later dirt tracking, therefore missing testing at Sepang on Feb 26, 27 & 28th.

It was Rossi who topped the timesheets at the end of the 3 days from Pedrosa, Dovizioso, Aleix Espargaro, Bradl, Bautista, Lorenzo, Crutchlow.

With Bridgestone needing to get some testing done at Phillip Island, after massive rear tyre issues at last year’s GP, Repsol Honda and Dani Pedrosa, minus Marquez, Lorenzo and Rossi on their Yamahas, Ducati and their boys, Dovizioso and Crutchlow packed up and headed south to the most punishing circuit on rear tyres of the season.

Bridgestone tested two fronts and eight rears, six of the rears were specifically for the Island’s extreme loads on the left shoulder of the rear tyre. Over the March 3rd, 4th & 5th these five riders tortured Bridgestone’s developments over 861 laps, the equivalent to 32 GP races. Bridgestone’s development manager, Shinji Aoki, was very satisfied with the results, saying conditions were similar to what can be expected in October and the options performed well during race simulations.

With the final pre-season test looming at Qatar one day later on the March 7, 8 & 9th, Honda, Yamaha, Ducati and their riders were happy to rest up instead of test up, indicating that they are ready to race the season opener under lights in the desert, come March 23rd. After three days in the desert the rest came in this order, Aleix Espargaro and his younger brother Pol (MotoGP rookie) were 1st and 2nd, from Smith, Bradl, Bautista, Iannone, Edwards.

Main man Marquez has stated he will be chasing points in Qatar and then everything will back to normal race weekends three weeks later in Austin, Texas. Will he harness himself during practice, qualifying and especially on race day? He has it all in front of him.

MotoGP rider Jorge Lorenzo of Spain is an expert at holding a race lead.

Lorenzo will be fixated on winning his third MotoGP crown in alternate years, the evens, 2010 and 2012.

Jorge has won under lights in the desert the last two years, with a robot like race pace, lap after lap, once he takes the lead, he devastates his opposition.

Pedrosa, like Rossi has a new engineer, Raul Jara, who first spotted Dani many years ago in Spain, now taking over from long term engineer and mentor, Albert Puig, who has been charged by HRC with overseeing some of their activities, including the Shell Advance Asia Talent Cup. Dani is one of the “aliens” but not a MotoGP World Champion, which, there is no doubt, is a thorn in his side. Is this year his best chance? Repsol Honda teammates over years have had some “interesting” results over the years.

Rossi’s shock split with Jeremy Burgess at the end of last season surprised many, including JB himself. Silvano Galbusera is who VR has chosen to replace JB. Rossi worked with Silvano at a WSBK test when he rode the R1 which Silvano was in charge of in WSBK.

He is Italian which may in itself be a help for Valentino to get his mojo back, he’s shown good pace in testing, can he run with the three “aliens”. Will in fact there be three aliens at Qatar with Marquez having missed recent testing, due to his broken leg?

Can Valentino Rossi get his mojo back this season?

Dovizioso will be having his 28th birthday on race day in the desert. Having won only one MotoGP victory from 105 attempts, his win per race percentage is just 0.95%, Pedrosa 25 of 132 = 18.93%, Lorenzo 31 of 101 = 30.69%, Rossi 80 of 233 = 34.33%, and yes, Marquez on top of the percentages too with six wins from 17 starts = 35.29% ! Those five are the only MotoGP race winners on grid.

Most likely maiden MotoGP winners, Stephan Bradl will be closely followed by Cal Crutchlow. Aleix Espargaro has shown very good pace in testing, and he will shock some of the more established stars during the season.

Over the last 1o seasons, the opening round winner has gone on to become the World Champion five times. Therefore it is a 50/50 bet that the victor under lights at Qatar this Sunday will be the 2014 MotoGP World Champion.

Kevin Magee is a former Grand Prix rider who commentates on the sport for Speed TV on Fox Sports.