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Turnbull Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form assessments

Jett Hatton presents his tips and form assessment for each of the runners in Saturday’s Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington.

Jett Hatton
4 min read
October 3, 2024 - 1:30PM
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The $750,000 million Turnbull Stakes has drawn together a high-class field of quality middle distance and staying gallopers.

There was a field of 16 runners declared for the 2000m contest. Here is a runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Saturday.

• Exciting colts hard to split in Danehill

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1 – CIRCLE OF FIRE

Sydney Cup winner who resumed in the Makybe Diva Stakes last month. Showed nothing on that occasion, finishing more than 20 lengths from the winner. The extra 400m will suit and he’ll be fitter too.

VERDICT: Can’t imagine him troubling the top five.

2 – BOIS D’ARGENT

Surprise Doomben Cup winner during the Brisbane winter carnival. Resumed in the Underwood Stakes and looked out of his depth.

VERDICT: Not here.

3 – BUCKAROO

Has returned a different horse since being gelded. Narrow winner of the Chelmsford Stakes two starts back before exploding in the Underwood Stakes to win by 3-½ lengths. Did only beat Huetor and Pericles, so there’s got to be some query on the form, but it’s impossible to deny the horse is in great order.

VERDICT: In the mix again.

4 – VIA SISTINA

Star mare that flopped in the Makybe Diva Stakes when favourite. It didn’t seem like she handled the heavy (9) conditions that day and while there’s rain expected in Melbourne in the lead-up to Saturday, the track won’t get any worse than soft. By far the most talented horse in the race and up to 2000m is where we’ll see her at her best. It is worth noting she’s zero from four racing anti-clockwise.

VERDICT: Entitled to be forgiven and slated as the horse to beat.

5 – WARMONGER

Eye catching run first-up in the Makybe Diva Stakes following a preparation that saw him win the Queensland Derby by more than 10 lengths. Only got warm late over the 1600m and turned in the quickest final 200m of the race. It’s likely that he’s a run away from peak fitness but the extra 400m obviously suits.

VERDICT: Solid place hope.

6 – ELIYASS

A winning machine that has only lost twice in 11 starts and none of those defeats have been in Australia or over 2000m. Has had the benefit of favourable barriers at his three runs over here and now draws gate 16 but has the racing style to offset the draw – and he has 400m to find a position before they turn.

VERDICT: Impossible to knock on form.

7 – ATISHU

She’s never won on a heavy track so be forgiving of her last start failure in the Makybe Diva Stakes. The 2000m at Flemington has seen her reel off big wins in the Group 1 Champions Stakes and Group 2 Matriarch Stakes while she was also third in this year’s Australian Cup.

VERDICT: Strong each-way prospects.

8 – HUETOR

Ran a big price first-up in the Underwood Stakes when the market gave him little hope. This is no doubt a harder race and he is zero from two at Flemington. Michael Dee stays with Warmonger so Koby Jennings gets the ride.

VERDICT: Hard to have.

9 – SHARP ‘N’ SMART

The best days seem to be well and truly behind this horse. Is a three-time Group 1 winner but he hasn’t won since his 2023 New Zealand Derby triumph and comes into this race having been beaten in a $45,000 race at Te Rapa.

VERDICT: Under the odds at $31.

10 – YOUNG WERTHER

It’s the third time Young Werther tackles the Turnbull Stakes and he has finished in the placings each time previously. Strong win last start at Caulfield when lugging 61kg to victory. This is no doubt a harder race and he is winless in 10 starts at Group 1 level but history says he’ll run well.

VERDICT: Have a few ahead of him.

11 – FRANCESCO GUARDI

This Chris Waller-trained galloper is going better than his price would suggest. Still likely to find the 2000m short of his best trip, and will be better suited when he gets into a handicap but look for him to be hitting the line late.

VERDICT: Sneaky top four chance for exotics.

12 – PLACE DU CARROUSEL

Not much went her way first-up in the Underwood. Had to be replated at the barriers and the firm track wasn’t to her liking. An obvious talent having already won at Group 1 level and we’ve seen her perform over here when she finished second to Via Sistina in the Ranvet Stakes. The more it rains, the better chance this mare has to chalk up her first win in Australia.

VERDICT: Can bounce back and is a contender.

13 – BANKERS CHOICE

Nothing in the formguide suggests this former Kiwi is up to Group 1 level. Will likely be taken back from a wide barrier and it’s hard to envision him going past many in the straight.

VERDICT: Looks outclassed.

14 – DUKE DE SESSA

Honest horse that seems to give his all every time he runs. Used petrol early to lead in the Underwood Stakes and continued to fight all the way to the line.

VERDICT: Needs an easier target.

15 – KNIGHT’S CHOICE

Queensland raider down for a crack at the big races. Comfortably beaten in the Underwood Stakes when getting every chance in the run under Craig Williams. This isn’t any easier.

VERDICT: Out of his depth.

16 – VALIANT KING

Did start $10 in last year’s Caulfield Cup when sixth to Without A Fight. Now with Chris Waller, he was beaten a long way first-up off a lengthy break but a switch to Melbourne does suit. Tommy Berry rode first-up and did say Valiant King changed his lead leg on a number of occasions at his first clockwise run in Australia.

VERDICT: Not the worst $101 shot.

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CLINTON PAYNE’S TURNBULL TIPS
1st – VIA SISTINA (No.4)
2nd – ATISHU (No.7)
3rd – ELIYASS (No.6)
4th – WARMONGER (No.5)

Originally published as Turnbull Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form assessments

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