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THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers, inside mail for racing on Saturday, December 21, 2024

Tips, market movers and the latest track conditions … Ray Thomas gives you the inside mail you need to back a winner at Randwick, Pakenham, Eagle Farm and beyond today.

Ray Thomas
5 min read
December 21, 2024 - 7:05AM
Punters Hold All Tickets – Final Episode of 2024

Is Nadal the real deal? How good is Gilded Water? Can Our Kobison find his old brilliance?

With Christmas only days away, it’s rare to find potential autumn carnival contenders racing at this time of year but this trio could be the exception to the rule.

The exciting Nadal came from last to score a stunning win in The Meteorite at Cranbourne last start and is favourite to win the final $1 million race of the calendar year, the inaugural The Supernova at Pakenham.

Nadal’s trainer Ciaron Maher has had a sensational start to the 2024-25 season with his stable runners already earning more than $40 million prizemoney.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

Maher has his eyes on another big-money prize at Pakenham with Nadal joined by in-form stablemate Chorlton Lane in The Supernova.

At Royal Randwick, it would be fitting if the Maher-trained Gilded Water, owned by His Majesty King Charles III, can maintain his unbeaten Australian record in the Precise Air Handicap (2400m).

Former English stayer Gilded Water was impressive winning over 2000m at the Kembla stand-alone meeting last month and he will enjoy going out to 2400m today.

Our Kobison, already a track record holder over 1200m at Rosehill, has favourable conditions to run fast time again in the Toyota Forklifts Handicap (1100m) at the Randwick meeting.

There is an expectation Nadal, Gilded Water and Our Kobison can emerge as legitimate autumn carnival big-race contenders if they win as expected today.

Also at Randwick, the juvenile opener, the Shinzo At Coolmore Plate (1000m) is challenging for race of the day with some superbly-bred two-year-olds making their debuts including Albany Road, Cenotaph, Chergui, Devil Night, Pallaton and Quietly Arrogant.

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ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Warm, mostly sunny day with the slight chance of a thunderstorm late in the afternoon and a forecast top temperature of 28c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 3m out

PAKENHAM
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day with a slight chance of a morning shower and a forecast top temperature of 22c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: True

EAGLE FARM
Weather: Warm, sunny day with light winds and a forecast top temperature of 31c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: 4.5m out

MURRAY BRIDGE
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy with a forecast top temperature is 26c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 3m out 1200m chute, True remainder

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BE WARY
Randwick’s rail has shifted out 3m after racing in the true position last week. With the track in the good 4 range, Randwick should provide another even racing surface. Similar conditions at Pakenham so there is no expectation of any discernible track bias there, either.

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ROYAL RANDWICK TIPS

THE BEST BET
ACCREDITED (Race 10 No.9) is airborne this campaign and should have won both starts. He was desperately unlucky first-up at Canterbury when blocked for a run in the straight and just missed reeling in Yiska. Then Accredited made up for that defeat with a dominant front-running effort at the Warwick Farm midweeks. The Joe Pride-trained chestnut is up in grade for the Randwick closer but he is the one to beat.

THE NEXT BEST
OUR KOBISON (Race 9 No.1) had never raced on a track rated worse than a soft 5 before and he was clearly uncomfortable in the soft 7 conditions at Rosehill first-up but never shirked his task to finish second in the Starlight Stakes. He gets back into a firm track at Randwick which suits this sprinter who is the Rosehill 1200m track record holder. Our Kobison is not badly in at the weights after the claim and is very effective second-up from a spell. He’s ready to win.

VALUE BET
DEVIL NIGHT (Race 1 No.4) cost $1.4 million at the Magic Millions Sale earlier this year. He is by Newgate’s champion sire Extreme Choice out of Mischief Night and is closely related to the outstanding Pierata. Trained by Team Hawkes, Devil Night had his only official barrier trial last week at Rosehill and looked a natural leading throughout to win the heat narrowly but impressively. This is a deep juvenile opener but Devil Night is value at $10.

THE WHISPER
GILDED WATER (Race 6 No.3), owned by His Majesty King Charles III, made a statement at his Australian debut when he ran down Alalcance to score in fast time over 2000m. The further the race went that day, the stronger Gilded Water looked and the step up to 2400m will be perfect for him. The former English stayer has a promising future and looks placed to advantage by trainer Ciaron Maher.

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race selections and analysis for Randwick on Saturday

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PAKENHAM TIPS

THE BEST BET
SAMANGU (Race 3 No.10) is a well-bred mare by Blue Diamond winner Written By and she has won both starts very impressively this campaign. She was brilliant winning her maiden at Ballarat and even better at Caulfield Heath when she led throughout and dashed away to win by more than three lengths. The Grahame Begg-trained four-year-old is an emerging talent, she’s drawn an inside barrier, and should win again.

NEXT BEST
NADAL (Race 8 No.6) produced an unbelievable finishing sprint to win The Meteorite at Cranbourne last start. The exciting Ciaron Maher-trained sprinter looked to be giving his rivals too big a start at the 400m but finished so fast he won by a widening margin of nearly three lengths. Nadal has been a different horse since being gelded and bad luck is his biggest danger in The Supernova.

VALUE BET
THE OPEN (Race 10 No.3) is extremely consistent with six wins (and four placings) from 12 starts but is almost always allowed to race at each-way odds. It’s situation normal for the Pakenham closer with The Open at $6.50 despite his impressive effort to win at Ballarat last start where he attacked the line strongly. Trained by Patrick and Michelle Payne, The Open is only third-up and should be peaking for this race. He’s great each-way value – again!

THE WHISPER
OH TOO GOOD (Race 6 No.7) has firmed into odds-on favouritism for her showdown with RUNNING BY ($2.60). This does look a match between two very good, in-form mares but if “money talks” then Oh Too Good is shaping as the one to beat. Oh Too Good was only second-up when she improved her imposing record to four wins and three second placings from just seven starts with a comfortable Cranbourne win. Running By will make a race of this but stick with Oh Too Good.

• EXPERT TIPS: Mark Guest’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Pakenham on Saturday

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: Quietly Arrogant $6-$5
Race 2: Moritz Girl $6-$5, Texas Fireball $2.80-$2.50
Race 3: Rapt $3.60-$3.30, Callistemon $11-$7
Race 4: Lulumon $4.60-$4, Infatuation $6-$4.80, I Am Famous $6-$5, Pippie Beach $8-$6.50
Race 5: Midnight Dynamite $11-$7, Inside Man $11-$9.50, Diddle Dumpling $6-$5
Race 6: Gilded Water $2.50-$2.30, Good Banter $11-$7.50
Race 7: Bright Red $4.60-$4.20, Heed The Omens $8-$6, Churchill’s Choice $11-$9, Fiddlers Green $15-$9
Race 8: Elettrica $8-$4.60, So Risque $11-$5.50
Race 9: Garza Blanca $6-$4.80
Race 10: Yorkshire $3.60-$3, Accredited $4.60-$4

• Tips from the big bookies: Supernova, Pakenham Cup and BJ McLachlan Day

PAKENHAM
Race 1: Charmed Run $6-$4.80, Lazy Susan $7-$6.50
Race 2: Sweethearted $6-$5, Harpalee $8-$7.50, Salsa Fellow $17-$8.50
Race 3: Samangu $2.30-$2.15, Kiko $10-$6.50, Sisterhood $8.50-$6.50
Race 4: Divus Romulus $4.80-$2.90
Race 5: Ruakaka Raider $6-$3.90, Deakin $6-$5.50, Actaeon $6-$5.50
Race 6: Oh Too Good $2.70-$2
Race 7: Nations Call $5.50-$4.40, Smokin’ Princess $9.50-$5.50, Perfect Play $13-$8.50
Race 8: Nadal $3-$2.70, Here To Shock $7.50-$6.50, Tuvalu $8-$7.50, Arkansaw Kid $9.50-$9
Race 9: Muramasa $5.50-$3.30, Strawberry Rock $16-$12
Race 10: Global Harmony $7-$3.40

• BIG BETS: Punters aim to ace bookies in Supernova

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INTERSTATE MAIL
Eagle Farm Race 2 No.3 ZAPHOD
Eagle Farm Race 8 No.3 HIDDEN WEALTH
Murray Bridge Race 1 No.2 OVERSTRIKE
Murray Bridge Race 3 No.7 SEEKING STARDOM

• EXPERT TIPS: Graeme Carey’s race-by-race tips, analysis and quaddie picks for Eagle Farm on Saturday

PROVINCIAL MAIL
Wyong Race 1 No.1 SUMMER SOIREE
Wyong Race 4 No.6 MISS CARTEL

• ASCOT, MURRAY BRIDGE TIPS: Veteran set to go back-to-back

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Tips, market movers, inside mail for racing on Saturday, December 21, 2024

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Original URL: https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/the-last-say-tips-market-movers-inside-mail-for-racing-on-saturday-december-21-2024/news-story/e546712687e488944cb517f5061644eb