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Mitch and Shayno’s Randwick tips, analysis: $14 value bet

A barnstorming trial has Mitch Cohen confident that a $14 value selection can salute for punters at Randwick on Saturday. Get Mitch Cohen and Shayne O’Cass’ race-by-race tips and analysis.

Racenet
10 min read
July 26, 2024 - 10:52AM
Sweet Mercy (red and blue cap, red silks with white stars and blue and white sleeves) wins at Warwick Farm in March. Mitch Cohen thinks the David Payne-trained mare is a terrific chance at a good price at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Bradley Photos
Sweet Mercy (red and blue cap, red silks with white stars and blue and white sleeves) wins at Warwick Farm in March. Mitch Cohen thinks the David Payne-trained mare is a terrific chance at a good price at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Bradley Photos

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Mitch Cohen and Shayne O’Cass analyse the 10- race card at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

MITCH’S BEST BET
Race 5 No.1 WORLD ALLIANCE

MITCH’S BEST VALUE
Race 10 No.9 SWEET MERCY

SHAYNO’S BEST BET
Race 4 No.5 MASCARET

SHAYNO’S BEST VALUE
Race 8 No.7 INVADER ZIM

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Randwick on Saturday

• SATURDAY MARKET MOVERS: $15 to $5.50 firmer at Randwick

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Race 1: 2yo Handicap (1100m)

Shayno: Great race to start the day, notable for the presence of the aptly-named BARBIE’S SISTER (2) who won the same stakes race in Brisbane as her sister Outback Barbie. We know the Tony Gollan-trained daughter of Spirit Of Boom is fast but she will need to be quick out the gates from her outside draw if she is going to cross. She is probably the best horse in the race but the untapped nature and brilliance of TARPAULIN (1)’s win at Warwick Farm will keep her honest. At the end of all that Mitchy, I went with Tarpaulin almost solely for the fact that he drew 2. It’s a long way short of being a two-horse race. I loved what the $950,000 I Am Invincible-Fenway filly QATARS CHOICE (8) has done at the trials. She will be the strongest late of all if she can keep in touch, she could ambush the other two.

Mitch: Our final Saturday two-year-old race of the season and I am tipping there are a few here we will be seeing a bit more of over the coming months. QATARS CHOICE (8) saw her price slashed in half to sit on the third line of betting and I can see why. I loved the way she hit the line in her latest trial. Her mum Fenway won a Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes so this might be short of her best but she should hit the line strongly. I suppose the big question mark on TARPAULIN (1) is whether he can show the dash on top of the ground. He’s looked dynamite on heavy tracks but it’s going to be good on Saturday. BULLFIGHTER (4) is the one who could be a sharp improver in the better going.

• Bullfighter continues Gai’s 2yo charge

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Race 2: TAB Highway Plate (Class 3, 1800m)

Shayno: There are a handful of horses in Saturday’s Highway that are crying out for 1800m. Chief among them is AGIRSLBESTFRIEND (7). The Marc Quinn-trained mare has the pattern that has always indicated that she would get over ground and although she failed once before over the trip, she is better placed now to get it; she showed that with that mile run up at Doomben. The next in line looking for 1800m is the Matthew Dunn-trained IMARICHGIRL (11) who was good at Eagle Farm last start over 1600m and of course she is by Mongolian Khan so that helps. CENOTES (1) had no chance the way the Highway was run the other day but surely winding-up to top speed late in the Randwick Mile. FINAL COMMENT (4) is best of the rest.

Mitch: We are looking in very different directions for the Highway but that’s the nature of these races – lots of angles, lots of chances. COUNTY KILKENNY (2) is coming out of a 1500m Highway race late last month where he stuck on nicely for second behind Toes In The Water. He should feature prominently in the run from a good draw and while he’s never featured over more than a mile, he gives every indication it won’t be an issue. FIELD THE MOMENT (10) hasn’t finished worse than second in his past four starts. A slow tempo gifted the race to the winner in his last start but he was best of the rest. KAIHOKO (3) is a horse I’ve got a bit of a soft spot for but the draw will make his life tricky.

• Morgan’s ‘dive into unknown’ pays big dividends

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Race 3: Midway Benchmark 72 (1600m)

Shayno: GREEN SHADOWS (3) is a Ryan/Alexiou-trained son of the Ryan-trained Menari. Ryan saw enough in the horse to buy him for $80,000 not at Riverside or the Gold Coast but all the way over in Perth at their Yearling Sale. Granted, Green Shadows has only won three times in 31 starts but he has finished second six times and I wonder how many of those could have been wins if he had a better pattern? Worried about the rail being out so far on Saturday but he gets J-Mac. That goes double for PURE HYDROGEN (17) who is famously slow early but fast late. You can never rule out DR EVIL (2) in a Midway. One other Mitchy; the drier the better brings PEACE OFFICER (1) into play.

Mitch: This is a race that gave me a headache with no reason standout in my eyes. JUSTELA (11) is a mare that has been racing consistent for Queen Elizabeth Stakes winning trainer Kerry Parker, winning two back on her home turf at Kembla Grange. She knocked up late last start in similar grade but expecting her to relish a return to drier ground this time. NOVEMBER FALLS (13) is another with the Kembla connection. The Mitch Beer-trained mare is racing well but she might have to use up a bit of gas from the wide draw. AMBASSADORS (15) has to go in wider exotics. He’s drawn to get all the favours.

• Lees confident Coolmore filly can take next step

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Race 4: 3yo+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 78 (1800m)

Shayno: Very keen on MASCARET (5) here. It is of untold significance that her last win was in the race last year; that is – same trip, same track and wait for it, same jockey. That jockey being none other than James McDonald. Mascaret was rock solid in her two lead-up runs to this, noting that she was 1600m back to 1400m. That was the real BLACKCOMB (3) who we saw finishing off stoutly to run third at Rosehill in the Bear On The Loose and Don Diego De Vega race. At least one of those horses franked the form for Blackcomb. DEFINING (2) is unproven at the distance but she is so honest that you would expect her to acquit herself well and she gets the on-pace favours. DECADENT TALE (14) may have been suited on Heavy but she has won on Soft and Good if we get down into that range.

Mitch: I’ve played around MASCARET (5). BLACKCOMB (3) did more than enough chasing home those two imports last start that look destined to be contesting stakes races over the next 12 months. That was on heavy ground but the switch back to good going should be a massive tick for her. All four of her career wins have come on dry tracks. FAIRWAY STAR (8) has had four runs to get her ready for her first crack at 1800m and can run well. The same goes for AUTUMNNATION (10). She just needs a bit more clear air in running than she got last time.

• Racewatch: Tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday

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Race 5: 3&4yo Benchmark 72 (1100m)

Shayno: Future Kosciuszko slot-holders will no doubt all be sizing up the unbeaten JOISELLE (13) here, trained by Kosciuszko winner Brett Cavanough. I have watched her win live in all three Mitchy – two of the wins, she just blew them away and the other one, she showed all the fighting qualities to complement her brilliance. The more I went and replayed the two wins this preparation from WORLD ALLIANCE (1), the more I liked him. He was just so emphatic! He does have a considerable weight to shoulder on Saturday but I can see Matthew Smith didn’t want to separate the horse from his natural rider, Jason Collett. HI DUBAI (9) is coming good now, third-up, off a really nice ‘close’ at the Farm.

Mitch: I’ve made WORLD ALLIANCE (1) my best on the program. Like you Shayno, I watched those replays a couple of times and loved the way he surged through the line on both occasions. There should be enough speed in this for him to relax off the early tempo and explode late. BOSTON ROCKS (2) is his danger back on top of the ground. You’d be happy to forgive his first run for Matthew Dale on an unsuitable heavy track. Take nothing away from JOISELLE (13), she just keeps winning. She’s only tiny but boy does she have a motor on her.

• World Alliance can build picket fence at Randwick on Saturday

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Race 6: Benchmark 88 (1600m)

Shayno: Zac Wadick has some good rides to perhaps follow up his historic Rosehill win from last Saturday Mitchy. He’s on SPACE AGE (8) here for Ciaron Maher in the Seymour Bloodstock colours. Space Age was an easy winner at Warwick Farm then came here to HQ and looked to have the race parcelled up before Nash swamped them all on HA HA HA (3) who runs here also. You would expect Spage Age to be up in, or near the lead, and is that the pattern of the day? I really don’t know what to make of Ha Ha Ha. Surely TIJUANA (2) has claims to a medal.

Mitch: This race was already pretty thin and is shaping as a really tactical affair following a couple of early scratchings. HA HA HA (3) is the way I am leaning. She was given a nice amount of time to settle in Australia and it’s already paying dividends for connections. That was a comfortable win last start at the track and trip and she’s drawn to be able to settle much closer here. It’s hard to split SPACE AGE (8) and TIJUANA (2). Both are rock hard fit now and have been around the money all preparation.

• Waller’s tough call: $3 million yearling ‘needed to be gelded’

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Race 7: Benchmark 88 (1100m)

Shayno: Small but select. That’s the long and short of the unofficial feature race of the weekend in Sydney – and not an easy one to approach with any confidence although I know you are keen on FLEETWOOD (4). I am with him too for reasons that I will leave to you so I can offer a little trivia; he was one of not that many yearling Godolphin buy each year, costing $160,000 at the Magic Millions. Gee, they are good judges! SHEZANALISTER (2) is so honest and talented. I thought she had ‘no hope’ with that big weight first-up but she proved me wrong.

Mitch: This is a race in two for mine – FLEETWOOD (4) and SHEZANALISTER (2) – and the market suggests as much. I was fairly bullish about Fleetwood earlier in the week as he prepares to return to Sydney on the back of a stakes placing down the Flemington straight. Back to Randwick, J-Mac on and a perfect draw – it’s hard to fault him. With that said, Shezanalister has me worried.I also doubted she with the 61kg but she was excellent. She won’t know herself with 56.5kg on back on Saturday and should strip fitter second up.

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Race 8: 3yo Benchmark 72 (1300m)

Shayno: Just for context, I was all over INVADER ZIM (7) first-up: okay, he got beaten, but not by far and he did cover a little bit of extra ground. I think he could end up in some good races as a four-year-old and beyond. The way KADALL (3) drifted from $13 to $21 first-up proved what most pundits assumed., that he would be better for the run, which didn’t stop him from being (my) run of the race that afternoon. Look at the second-up form! KERGUELEN (4) is racing inferior horses but is at least beating them easily.

Mitch: Some might believe I’ve enlisted in the ‘Blue Army’ late on the card. I landed on Godolphin’s KERGUELEN (4) here but I have to say, this looks a deep race. He’s another galloper that has been excelling on heavy going, notably dominating at Warwick Farm last time. He can take the next step. You’ve summed up INVADER ZIM (7) nicely, he’s a danger for sure. The other one is the filly LADY BOSS (9). She comes out of the same race as Chris Waller’s galloper where she just peaked on her run late.

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Race 9: Colts, Horses and Geldings Benchmark 78 (1800m)

Shayno: KING OF FLORIDA (9) had major excuses at his Australian debut when 10th of 12 at Rosehill behind Elouyou on June 29. They all kicked up inside of him and was flushed out before he was ready to make his run, hence why he faded. There was a bit of love for him at his scheduled start here two weeks ago but he broke through the gates and was scratched. He had a trial since and went as well as you would like and expect. Me? I think he’s a Gong/Festival Stakes/The Ingham-style horse. ETNA ROSSO (3) has run last in his two trials but was never, ever called upon. The fact that this is 1800m gives him an opportunity to win.

Mitch: Here I was thinking I’d be on the only one on KING OF FLORIDA (9). I reckon he’s more than entitled to be given a second chance. Let’s not forget that was a heavy track on his Australian debut as well, he’s never raced going that wet in his life. It was a little hiccup up between runs but he showed more than enough in his tick over trial to suggest he’s going well enough. Stablemate ETNA ROSSO (3) is an interesting galloper returning from a spell. He’s been asked to do very little in his two trials and will need every bit of the 1800m first up.

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Race 10: 4yo+ Benchmark 78 (1300m)

Shayno: SEQUESTERED (10) hasn’t raced since tailing off at Flemington on Champions day last year, November 11 to be exact. James Cummings has trialled her twice, the first was good, the second was very good. Her numbers across the board are excellent and it goes without saying, but not unnoticed, that James McDonald is a key booking. I can see why you like SWEET MERCY (14), Mitchy. I just want to throw one more in; ARTS (8). I have always been a fan of the horse (and her trainer) and there is a certain X-Factor there.

Mitch: Certainly a fan of SWEET MERCY (14), Shayno. David Payne had her ready to win first up last preparation and she delivered. Her recent trial gives me confidence she can do it again fresh from a break. And you’d struggle to find a jockey riding in better form than Chad Schofield in recent weeks. I will give SEQUESTERED (10) plenty of respect, particularly given her strong first up return. She is coming back from a lengthy 259-day spell, though, so there is a chance there is some ring rust there.

Originally published as Mitch and Shayno’s Randwick tips, analysis: $14 value bet

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