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Shayne O’Cass’ tips, analysis for Run To The Rose Day at Rosehill on Saturday: Lady out to prove she’s a champ

Form student Shayne O’Cass analyses Saturday’s Run To The Rose Day meeting at Rosehill Gardens, presenting his race-by-race tips.

Shayne O’Cass
4 min read
September 12, 2024 - 2:11PM
Hold All Tickets - Punters (Episode 3) 14-09-24

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Shayne O’Cass analyses Saturday’s Run To The Rose Day meeting at Rosehill Gardens, presenting his race-by-race tips.

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RACE 1: Midway (Bm72) 1200m

Unwritten is trained by Greg Hickman, the inaugural Midway winner himself. A son of Written Tycoon, Unwritten has raced nine times this preparation for a win, five placings, two fourths and a fifth in some strong and possibly stronger races. Alabama State is the one with all the upside. Won with a lot of authority in `very fast time at Hawkesbury first-up. Monte Kate is another one with that proverbial ‘upside’.

Bet: Unwritten each-way

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RACE 2: Tab Highway Hcp (C3) 1400m

Spirits Burn Deep was $41 into $26 then $31 into $26 in his two Highways runs prior to Saturday but was $10 the last time we looked. Reason being, the Neil Osborne-trained mare turned in such a good run here on August 31. Drew 3, Molly Bourke then and now. Albury mare Prophet’s Daughter held her ground in the August 17 Highway behind Intervarsity. She has to make up more than four lengths on that one but she has some weight and barrier advantages.

Bet: Spirits Burn Deep to win

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RACE 3: Chandon (Bm88) 1800m

Up And Under was a certainty beaten first-up. Fast forward four weeks and he ran last of 10 beaten 13 lengths but he was more or less ‘eased down’ by James McDonald for welfare reasons. We just need that sting out of these tracks. Up And Under does anyway. Stablemate Unusual Legacy was impossible to miss first-up. He was impressive both to the eye and the clock and here’s a stat to chew on; unbeaten in both second-up appearances. Roma Avenue is an honest and genuine horse who ran in good company last start.

Bet: Up And Under to win or if scratched Unusual Legacy to win

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RACE 4: Hot Rod & Custom Show Bm78 2400m

Confucius say; When in doubt in 2400m races, back Waller. That’s all well and good but he’s got four in this race and any of them can win. From a betting point of view, there are worse wagers than to box the four of them in the trifecta. From a tipping point of view, I settled on Kapakiri for reasons including that he beat Age Of Sail and Perfect Play over this track and distance three runs back. I still think Outlandos has a 2400m win/place in him and he is $71 to win and $15 to place here.

Bet: Box trifecta 4, 5, 7, 9

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RACE 5: NSW Thoroughbred Breeders (Bm78) 1500m

Firestorm has done some good things since she was transferred to Waller from New Zealand where she was sixth to her new stablemate Molly Bloom in the 1000 Guineas. Her last run was also in a Group 1, namely the Queensland Oaks, but make no mistake, she’s a miler. Her stablemate Mare Of Mt Buller was fifth in the Queensland Oaks before her spell. She’ll be better next time and the times after that but 1500m and two trials give her ‘her chance’. Big watch on the other Waller horses; Chica Mojita and Anahita (last chance).

Bet: Firestorm each-way, box trifecta 2, 4, 8, 15

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RACE 6: Irresistible Pools Sheraco Stakes 1200m

Sunshine In Paris is $15 to win The Everest, Joliestar is $5 equal favourite. That seems a pretty big discrepancy before the Sheraco, let’s see what they are after the race. That’s working on the (my) proviso that one of them wins on Saturday. Joliestar has had ‘the run’ and won like Winx true, but I can’t get away from the depth in Sunshine In Paris’ form. Joliestar is $1.80 versus Sunshine in Paris $4.20 too. That’s generous. Belclare is trialling like an atomic bomb.

Bet: Sunshine In Paris to win, exacta 3 to beat 2

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RACE 7: Precise Air Ming Dynasty Quality 1400m

Lady Shenandoah could be the big mover among the three-year-old fillies division this season, right the way through to the autumn in 2025. She is a Waller-trained Snitzel out of a Starcraft mare (speed and stamina) and a half to Hong Kong Group 1 winner, Stronger. Weight to talent ratio makes her such an inviting bet. Last Command was in a different league to the others at Newcastle first-up. His other win was in the Paul Perry when he beat Just Party and Broadsiding.

Bet: Lady Shenandoah to win

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RACE 8: James Squire Run To The Rose 1200m

Fearless is a Newcastle Maiden winner. He is also a Group 1 Champagne Stakes placegetter behind Broadsiding and Linebacker. He was runner-up in a Canonbury and ‘huge’ in the Blue Diamond. He has a monumental task to beat both Storm Boy and Bustling but barrier 1 has got to help, surely, and for what it is worth, I haven’t seen anything trial too much better than him these last few weeks.

Bet: Fearless each-way, quinella 2, 6, Daily Double 1st Leg (6), 2nd Leg (14)

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RACE 9: Toyota Forklifts Theo Marks Stakes 1300m

Molly Bloom was scratched from the Tramway last weekend for reasons unknown. Maybe it was a bit too strong for her, who can say, but this looks a bit ‘easier’ while far from easy of course. Me? I thinks he is going well, she’s a Group 1 winner in NZ but it is a worry that she has no (pre-post) market support. Tannhauser is the best $61 shot I can remember in ages. Sure it is short of his best but I reckon he is going to win some big races in his four-year-old season. Respecting Celestial Legend and Airman.

Bet: Molly Blooms and Tannhauser each-way

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RACE 10: Tab (Bm88) 1100m

Blanc De Blanc, a direct descendant of the broodmare gem, Easy Date, has been dealt some horrible draws in her short career but not so this time. Surely, unless for some inexplicable reason the fence is off, or she gets boxed in, barrier one is a winning draw for this very talented filly. The dangers are numerous. Chief among them are Unflinching, Ostraka and the barnstormer Fox Fighter.

Bet: Blanc De Blanc to win, Tommy Berry to win TAB Jockeys Challenge

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’ tips, analysis for Run To The Rose Day at Rosehill on Saturday: Lady out to prove she’s a champ

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Original URL: https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/horse-racing/shayne-ocass-tips-analysis-for-run-to-the-rose-day-at-rosehill-on-saturday-lady-out-to-prove-shes-a-champ/news-story/aa837c5fb5f4404da4a91d1decdd39c7