The curious case of the Stradbroke Handicap betting market

There has rarely been a Stradbroke Handicap betting market like it with only one horse in single figures the week before Queensland’s biggest race.

It’s a Stradbroke Handicap betting market like few have ever seen.

With just over a week to go before Queensland’s most prestigious race, there is only one horse in single figures in betting in the TAB fixed odds market.

After his dominant win in the Group 3 BRC Sprint, War Machine was promoted to $5 Stradbroke Handicap favouritism as the famed Lindsay Park dynasty tries to win its first Stradbroke.

Since then, without even racing, War Machine has been slashed even further and is now a pronounced $3 Stradbroke favourite.

READ: WATCH: Rothfire boosts hopes of Stradbroke ‘miracle'

It’s not just the fact that punters have continued to warm to War Machine, but there are other factors at play.

Benedetta, a one-time Stradbroke fancy, will now not contest the race and will only run in Saturday’s Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup.

Other potential Stradbroke contenders have either fallen by the wayside or been disappointing.

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Three-year-old colt Bosustow was considered a strong Stradbroke chance but then failed to flatter in Wednesday’s rescheduled Fred Best Classic where he appeared to have every chance but could only finish sixth as the $2.45 favourite.

Bosustow has now blown out to be a $21 Stradbroke chance but co-trainer Rob Archibald confirmed the colt would tackle the race and said last year’s Stradbroke winning jockey Zac Lloyd had been booked to ride.

READ: $8000 filly who ‘walks like a duck' spices up Stradbroke field

Bosustow will push onto the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap. Picture: Bethany Allday, Trackside Photography.

Others, such as Rothfire, are in doubt.

Giga Kick, weighted with 58.5kg in the Stradbroke, almost certainly wouldn’t back up after racing in Saturday’s Kingsford Smith Cup.

While Private Eye will attack the Stradbroke as a $15 chance, he will avoid the Kingsford Smith.

It would mean he would have to snap decades of Stradbroke tradition and land the race first-up.

Could Chris Waller pull a rabbit out of a hat and race boom three-year-old Angel Capital in the Stradbroke first-up?

Angel Capital sits 26th in the order of entry but with the attrition rate above him he would be close to being assured a Stradbroke berth if Waller wanted to pull the trigger.

It would be almost unprecedented for a three-year-old to run first-up in a Stradbroke, the Yulong trained youngster is currently a $21 chance.

Could Angel Capital contest the Stradbroke first up? Picture: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

There still remains a lot to play out, key decisions to be made and some things could change after some races at Eagle Farm on Saturday.

But only two things seem sure in the 2025 Stradbroke and that is there will be two fairytale stories.

READ: The Inflictor, trained by truck driver Craig Cousins, has qualified for a start and there has rarely been a Stradbroke tale like this one.

And there is another amazing story playing out, with Toby Edmonds securing one-time $8,000 yearling filly Spicy Martini a Stradbroke start after an emotional triumph in the Fred Best Classic at Doomben on Wednesday.

“She has pulled up great,” Edmonds said on Thursday.

Originally published as The curious case of the Stradbroke Handicap betting market