Ray and Duff’s Rosehill analysis, plus Brisbane Group 1s

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse all 10 races at Rosehill on Saturday, plus they cast their eyes over the Stradbroke Handicap and JJ Atkins at Eagle Farm.

The Daily Telegraph and Racenet’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances on the 10-race Winter Cup program at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Plus, they look at the two Group 1s in Brisbane.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

Best Bet

R6 no6: Left Field

Next Best

R1 no1: Sovereign Hill

ROSEHILL GARDENS

R1: Chandon Hcp (1400m)

Ron Dufficy: Sovereign Hill was beaten by a nice type last start. If he gets a drying track here, he should be very hard to run down. I like the way Swiftflacon was surging through the line last start and he should eat up 1400m. Goodlucktome was well fancied at his debut. It was just a lack of race experience that beat him..

Ray Thomas: I’m going with the value runner, Swiftfalcon. He hasn’t had a lot go right for him in his two starts but he has hit the line strongly both times indicating the step up to 1400m should suit. The outside barrier might actually work in his favour as he will find the galloping room he needs. Shanwah got into a bumping duel in the straight and was off-balance for a period before getting to the line well for third on debut behind Depth Of Character. The race experience, bigger track and extra distance suits. Sovereign Hill tried hard behind boom colt Emirate last start. Likely leader and only needs to see out 1400m to be the one to catch. Goodlucktome ran well on debut and can only improve.

2: Midway Hcp (1200m)

Dufficy: Yiska was dominant winning last start when suited back in distance. She just has to carry a bit more weight here and she will be hard to toss. Glenbower is a three-year-old who impressed winning his maiden but it is not easy going straight to a Saturday race unless you are very good – and he could well be. So Good So Cool is sure to improve with solid second-up form and extra 100m. Navy Blood failed dismally last start but if you can forgive that flop he has the right to win this on his previous win.

Thomas: Flightcrew had to do some work early to cross from a wide barrier and settle outside the leader then fought hard in the straight when third to Yiska in a Midway here two weeks ago. She has to step up to 1200m which will test her but barrier three is ideal for the filly who should get the run of the race. She gets in well after the claim and is racing in a consistent vein of form. Glenbower is the one to watch. He was dominant winning his maiden first-up at Newcastle and is also drawn to advantage. At the odds, Flightcrew is rated a $14 chance and Glenbower is well-found as the $3.40 favourite. Iron Man has a good first-up record and Conrad is another who usually sprints well fresh.

R3: TAB Highway (1400m)

Dufficy: Know Thyself has far more upside than these. He probably should have won first-up at Canterbury and this is a very suitable race for him. Invasive Dreams was a hidden run second-up in town and this suits her now at her third run back and up and up in distance. Ensign Power gets favours and gives a bit of cheek up-front. Letme Entertainyou is in winning form and maps quite nicely here.

Thomas: Know Thyself is a promising three-year-old by Arrowfield sire sensation The Autumn Sun who impressed with wins at Newcastle and Scone to begin his race career last summer then resumed at Canterbury with a luckless second to Shehasattitude. Know Thyself was held up for a run at a vital stage in the straight and should have won last start. He will appreciate the extra distance and bigger track. Invasive Dreams is an emerging filly better suited back in this grade after she worked to the line well when eighth to One Destiny at Warwick Farm. She struck trouble last start and should have finished much closer. Letme Entertainyou and Silver Halo are racing well.

R4: James Squire Hcp (2000m)

Dufficy: Perfect Play is an improving import. He should be right third-up at 2000m now and set for a peak run. Gulf Of Mexico has talent and although up in grade, has a significant weight pull. Principessa was a run short last start and is capable at decent odds here. For Victory is racing in genuine form and he is sure to be snapping at their heels again.

Thomas: I’m going with the in-form trio of For Victory, trainer Chris Waller and jockey Kerrin McEvoy. For Victory has held his form over an extended campaign with two wins and four placings from his last six starts. He ran up to win at Scone but found promising stablemate Unusual Legacy too strong late. For Victory has won up to 1900m and given his fitness and form, he won’t get a better opportunity to run out 2000m strongly. Perfect Play is the obvious danger. He has been placed in both Australian starts and comes out of the same Scone race when he hit the line well to just miss edging out For Victory for second placing. Lyrical Gangster and Gulf Of Mexico both ran blinders last start and will be fitter.

For Victory wins at Hawkesbury.

R5: TAB Handicap (1400m)

Dufficy: Captain Furai has looked very progressive in his three starts to date and he gets his chance to take another step here. How Dare You has had a tick-over trial since winning a weaker race over the Scone carnival impressively. Little Cointreau won well first-up and has a good-looking record now. He just needs favours from the draw. Silvanito comes out of a very strong form-race last start and might be one at huge odds.

Thomas: Captain Furai, a dual acceptor (race 9, emergency) is well-placed. He started his career with wins at Newcastle and then Kensington beating Franz Josef then ran second to that horse at Rosehill two weeks ago. Captain Furai drops back to 1400m and is the one to beat. How Dare You showed impressive acceleration to score at Scone first-up and will make a race of it with Captain Furai. Wild Gypsy just missed a place behind Franz Josef and Captain Furai last start and that form reads well for this race. Tiger Town is making winning a habit and savaged the line to score at Warwick Farm last start.

R6: Precise Air Hcp (1300m)

Dufficy: Left Field has been very good without winning at her last two. The timing is right. The step-up in distance again suits now and I think she is very hard to beat. Demiana has a sticky draw but should be savaging the line again. Amati was great behind Demiana first-up and is two kilos better off here. Dazzling Lucy has drawn well and did enough in that lead-up race as well.

Thomas: Left Field had to make her run along the worst part of the track near the inside when second to Cigar Flick at Rosehill two weeks ago. She was very game in defeat last start and that came after another excellent effort when third at stakes level at Scone. She gets her chance for a deserved win. Demiana is also racing in top form and was tough getting over the top of her rivals at Warwick Farm. Amati got a long way and in an awkward spot on the turn but she charged through the field to finish third behind Demiana when resuming. Anagain is never far away but finds it hard to win.

R7: ATC Foundation Hcp (1100m)

Dufficy: Passeggiata should find the rail early from the good draw which is an asset and prove hard to run down with the claim. Wild Botanica is primed with a trial since doing a good job in the same race as Passeggiatta last time. Hanau is still a little un-tapped and is a huge query after an eye-catching recent trial. In Flight is a big improver with the firmer footing today

Thomas: Passeggiata is a speedy mare who has been runner-up in both starts this campaign, over 900m at Newcastle then 1000m at Randwick. She was scratched from two races over the long weekend to be saved for this. Passeggiata has won over the Rosehill 1100m on heavy ground previously and is the one to catch. Hanau has been a top two finisher in five of his six starts, winning twice. The Godolphin grey resumes but he has been trialling well. Hi Dubai is a smart mare who likes to lead in her races. She will settle on speed and be in this for a long way. Cinematic Star is improving with racing and comes off a monstrous effort to win at Warwick Farm.

R8: Kia Winter Cup (2400m)

Dufficy: Sir Lucan was too bad to be true last week. I have to give him another chance on a firmer track this week if that is the case. Hopeful is obviously all the rage after his unlucky, eye-catching run last week. Slight concerns he may have been flattered by a heavy track which he loves. Bonny Ezra is back from Queensland and finds a suitable looking race. Point King was solid in the market at his Australian debut. He didn’t do much but this is more like his distance range and he might improve sharply.

Thomas: Sir Lucan ran a terrific race to beat all but the in-form Hezashocka in the Gosford Gold Cup then was sent out favourite in last week’s Lord Mayor’s Cup and after leading to the turn faded badly to run ninth behind Eliyass. There was nothing in the stewards report to explain the flop except the heavy track at Randwick. I’m prepared to give Sir Lucan another chance. Hopeful is the one to beat. He is also on the back-up after doing his best work on the line when second to Eliyass. Hopeful is better suited at 2400m but he hasn’t won a race for more than two years. Bonny Ezra won the Gold Coast Cup then was safely held in Hezashocka’s Premier’s Cup. Stable often has success when they bring their horses back from interstate. Point King is a stakeswinner in Ireland fitter for a recent Randwick run.

R9: Racing For good On July 13 Hcp (1500m)

Dufficy: Franz Josef is up in grade but looks progressive. He has a great racing style and is sure to run well again. Captain Furai is a similar type who will be looking to turn the tables on him again. Nails Murphy found trouble and was eased out of it last start. He is a big improver. Allapercanto is hard to knock off two encouraging wins of late.

Thomas: Franz Josef controlled the race from the front and was dominant late beating Captain Furai at Rosehill two weeks ago. He was second-up at 1500m that day so expect further improvement. Promising galloper perfectly drawn and can win again. I’mintowin is resuming but he did win brilliantly over the Rosehill 1500m when resuming last December. He was beaten as favourite at his next two starts before being spelled. He’s been trialling well and rates as the main danger to Franz Josef. Captain Furai, who has 1-1 head-to-head record with Franz Josef, is also entered for race five and will be very competitive in either. Allapercanto has been winning with authority in easier races.

R10: Rosehill Bowling Club Hcp (1300m)

Dufficy: We finally might see Step Aside racing this week. He’s been scratched two or three times, waiting patiently for a drier track to start off in and he should be ready to go here from a good draw. King Of Naples did more than enough first-up and this distance suits him better. Testator Silens has won a trial since a more than acceptable run first-up. He just needs luck from that alley. Elson Boy continues to amaze, running his rivals ragged and the form out of his last win is very good.

Thomas: Elson Boy has won five races in succession including a heat of the Country Championships, Diggers Cup and Gooree Cup in the bush, and his win at the Scone stand-alone last start. He has good gate speed and is very effective on soft-heavy tracks. In a competitive closer, Elson Boy is one of the main chances again. Sir Ravanelli is also racing in career-best form and finished strongly to win at the Newcastle stand-alone last month. He’s another who likes wet tracks. Step Aside has a very good fresh record and is trialling well. Ang Pow returned to winning form at Doomben and should run well again.

Broadsiding wins the Group 2 BRC Sires' Produce. Picture: Grant Peters - Trackside Photography.

EAGLE FARM

R6: JJ Atkins (1600m)

Dufficy: Mr Artemisia is a horse I really like. I know he is a maiden after three starts and taking on a Group 1 winner but he has the right pedigree to improve again at the mile. Broadsiding has the form on the board and is obviously the horse to beat. His main issue is getting back in the ruck from his inside draw. Aemelius jumped from 1200m to 1500m last week and had legitimate excuses when narrowly beaten and I thought she could not have gone much better. Bittercreek gets the blinkers back on and I’m convinced he has a lot more to offer.

Thomas: Broadsiding won the Champagne Stakes over 1600m at Randwick and then came from near last on the turn to win the BRC Sires so impressively last start. Just needs luck getting clear gallop room from the turn. Mr Artemisia is the big improver and is screaming out for this distance. Bittercreek is promising and I’ve included Imperialist who was so impressive winning last week.

R8: Stradbroke Hcp (1400m)

Dufficy: Anything goes here but I keep coming back to Vilana who is ticking so many boxes with his perfect draw. He’s on the back-up from a big win last week. The Inevitable might be the forgotten horse. His first-up run in the BRC Sprint was eye-catching and he drops from 59kg to 53kg. Magic Time had excuses when she was galloped on last start, she maps well and is a dual Group 1 winner. The best longshot is Here To Shock who will find a charmed position from barrier one.

Thomas: Vilana scored a stunning win in the Morton Cup last week and he drops 3kg into the Stradbroke. I don’t mind the wide barrier as he will probably settle second half with cover and then unleash his powerful finishing surge. Stefi Magnetica is a talented filly down in the weights but must overcome a wide draw. Bella Nipotina defeated I Wish I Win in the Doomben 10,000 then ran second to that sprinter in the Kingsford Smith Cup which is the best form for this race. Her wide draw and big weight is the concern. Magic Time also has her share of weight but is a class mare.

Originally published as Ray and Duff’s Rosehill analysis, plus Brisbane Group 1s