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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday: $6 best bet

Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy has been taken with the trials of a proven Group 1 performer who goes around at juicy odds on Saturday. Get Duff and Ray’s tips for Randwick.

Ray Thomas
11 min read
September 20, 2024 - 12:21PM
Hold All Tickets - Punters (Episode 4) 21-09-24

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate all the chances on another fascinating feature spring carnival meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

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DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 6 No.1 AMENABLE

DUFF’S NEXT BEST
Race 1 No.11 EL CASTELLO

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RACE 1: VALE GRAHAM MCNEICE MIDWAY (1600m)

Ron Dufficy: I am quite keen on the three-year-old, EL CASTELLO (11). He is fresh blood here. He toughed it out very well winning first-up and there have been two winners out of that race already and he has just got that little bit of Broadsiding from last preparation so I am quite comfortable with him. FLYING BANDIT (7) is an improver. He is also a lightly-raced horse, a four-year-old who appears to have upside. I like the way he lengthened there first-up at Hawkesbury. LET’S GO BRO (8) seems to map well, right on top of the speed here, and give himself every opportunity. GOLD PATTERN (2) is sneaking up in the weights now but is going great winning two recent races at this level.

Ray Thomas: FLYING BANDIT (7) got back in the field when resuming at Hawkesbury but made a long sustained run from the 600m and just missed. It was a terrific return from the chestnut who won successive starts at Goulburn and Kembla Grange before his spell. Improving type suited by the Randwick mile course. EL CASTELLO (11) was placed behind boom colt Broadsiding in the Fernhill Handicap last autumn and resumed with a fighting win at Warwick Farm. Promising colt, drawn to advantage and will go close. LET’S GO BRO (8) ran well at Newcastle behind the in-form Northern Eyes and GOLD PATTERN (2) comes off strong wins at Rosehill and Warwick Farm.

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RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1000m)

Dufficy: This is a pretty sharp Highway, Ray. I am a believer in KREON (6) now. He is just inexperienced but he showed that good improvement with that run under his belt running very fast time at Goulburn winning with a leg in the air. So I am happy to say that he can continue on that upward spiral. SHE’S EXOTIC (5) is the X-factor. She’s had a soft trial win, she is unbeaten all by big margins. They’ve found James McDonald so everything looks positive with her. PERENNIAL (2) looks set up well with a nice Scone trial and a few little gear changes there and does seem to get the right run from the draw. SARATOGA POWER (9) was very good charging over the top of them and is ready for a step up in class now.

Thomas: We have the same top four, Ronnie. I’m with SHE’S EXOTIC (5), who won her only three starts last season by comfortable margins, showing versatility to either lead or come from off speed. She resumes off a very good trial win at Tamworth, drawn well and gets James McDonald. Her danger is another emerging sprinter, the grey KREON (6). He was backed into favouritism when resuming in a Highway here and missed a place but bounced back with a very easy win in fast time at Goulburn. Kreon has drawn alongside She’s Exotic and they might match motors for a long way. PERENNIAL (2) has won three of his six starts and resumes of a stylish trial effort. He’s unbeaten fresh. SARATOGA POWER (9) has continued to improve with every run and was dynamic at Muswellbrook, winning easily and breaking 57s for 1000m.

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RACE 3: SHOOT OUT MILE (1600m)

Dufficy: BEAR ON THE LOOSE (6) looks the top pick. He is an interesting lightly-raced import. He was very good in two wet track runs at his only Aussie preparation. Although out-sprinted in a couple of trials, I think he is ready to go. SNOWMAN (7) is the danger. He’s a hard horse to assess after an ordinary first-up run in Victoria but he has the form to win this race and Chris Waller is very good at switching his horses interstate. CLIFF HOUSE (9) did more than enough in the Goulburn Cup first-up and he’s got great second-up statistics. ST LAWRENCE (2) is racing well without winning and is ready for another crack at the mile.

Thomas: I’m staying with FLOATING (5). I was on him last start when he was disadvantaged by the track bias before finishing fifth. Floating deserves another chance and is good value at double figure odds. BEAR ON THE LOOSE (6) created a big impression winning at his Australian debut at Rosehill then had excuses when fourth to Aramco at Randwick during winter. He resumes off two very good trials and should go close. ST LAWRENCE (2) just missed in the Goulburn Cup and is continuing to race well but is finding it hard to win. GALERON (1) ran a close second to Major Beel over this course and distance and will be hard to beat.

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RACE 4: NICK MORAITIS TROPHY (1400m)

Dufficy: Tough race. I’m going to give THUNDERLIPS (6) another chance. His two runs back are more than acceptable so 1400m third-up now is ideal. Obviously needs things to fall into place from that draw. As does his stablemate HOLLYWOOD HERO (1) who captured the attention in that same race first-up. He’s also drawn wide but will improve at 1400m no doubt so I think the Bjorn Baker-trained pair have got something to say at odds here. WELL TIMED (10) is likeable. He’s a nice enough horse on the improve as well. The barrier draw help. Just has to prove himself running 1400m right out for mine, but no knock. HIGH BLUE SEA (9) was building up to another win but was just a little flat last start. With the draw, I see him getting a good run in a suitable race.

Thomas: WELL TIMED (10) won a Midway impressively then was three-wide most of the race and was caught on the wrong part of the track but didn’t shirk his task when third to Uzziah last start. He’s drawn a better barrier this time and should get his chance. PURE ALPHA (14) is lightly raced but has ability and resumes off a soft trial. He should be in the mix here. THUNDERLIPS (6) has been improved by two runs back from a spell and is working his way into form. The wide draw is an issue but if he can slide across early and get on speed, he will take running down. Similarly, NORTHERN EYES (5) has to overcome a horror draw but he has reeled off four successive wins including his tough effort to win a Midway here last start.

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RACE 5: KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000m)

Dufficy: I like CEOLWULF (11). I think he has always promised to be a good horse and now that he has put that second-up win on the board, he could easily go on with it here. He just needs a good James McDonald ride. ZARDOZI (18) is too good a mare not to give another chance. I know she was very flat there second-up as were the punters but she is better than that. ADELAIDE RIVER (8) looked back on track catching the eye there first-up in the Chelmsford. He is very dangerous. ELIYASS (6) hasn’t put a foot wrong but there is more depth to this race and I think he’s short enough.

Thomas: ZARDOZI (18) has been scratched from the 7 Stakes to run in this and looks very hard to beat. The classy Godolphin mare ran a blinder first-up in the Winx Stakes then might have been a touch flat last start when unplaced in the Chelmsford Stakes although she was disadvantaged by the track bias. She is looking for this trip now. ELIYASS (6), the boom former French stayer, is unbeaten in two Australian starts, both at stakes level, and will be in the mix again. CEOLWULF (11) was very impressive at Rosehill and is better suited at 2000m. GOLDEN PATH (12) has won three on the bounce and goes into this race fresh off a good Warwick Farm trial effort behind Ceolwulf.

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RACE 6: BILL RITCHIE HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: I am very keen on AMENABLE (1) here. He gets his blinkers back on first-up, he ran a great race in the Stradbroke, I love the way he’s trialling and I am convinced he’ll be hard to beat at odds. TOM KITTEN (4) needs a lot more things to go his way this time. He’s had a nice little trial since he did everything asked of him first-up as a gelding, so just needs to overcome that draw. SCARLET OAK (14) is very dangerous if she is wound-up for this. She is a very good mare who did an amazing job in her first racing preparation and her trials are good. FREEDOM RALLY (2) gets blinkers and can improve.

Thomas: TOM KITTEN (4) made a spring carnival statement with strong comeback win at Rosehill last month. He has had a month between runs but had a tick-over trial to prepare for this race. Drawn wide but gets back in his races and will be powering home. Big watch on SCARLET OAK (14). She showed considerable talent in the autumn where she went from a maiden win in New Zealand to a Group 2 winner in her debut preparation. She’s had two trials to prepare for her return and gets in on the limit weight. AIRMAN (7) is over the odds, GRINGOTTS (8) is promising, AMENABLE (1) and KINTYRE (10) are certainly worth plenty of consideration.

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RACE 7: TEA ROSE STAKES (1400m)

Dufficy: It’s hard to tip against AUTUMN GLOW (6). She’s just been ultra impressive coming through the back door into this race, has that real X-factor about her and will be hard to beat again. MANAAL (1) is a gutsy and reliable filly, proven at Group 1 level at 1400m, and presents well. As does AMEENA (2) who is tied to the hip with Manaal and gives the impression 1400m would be okay for her as well. LAZZURA (5) can improve from that first-up run and she does get that cosy sit behind them with the run of the race here.

Thomas: This is some race between unbeaten AUTUMN GLOW (6), MANAAL (1) and AMEENA (2), Ronnie. Autumn Glow has only been to the races twice and looked so impressive beating the boys easily in the Group 3 Up And Coming Stakes last start. She’s back to fillies grade at level weights and I don’t mind her draw as she needs galloping room. Manaal is all class and showed her determination to hold off Ameena in the Furious Stakes when both fillies had to make their runs on the worst part of the track. Ameena, who won the Silver Shadow Stakes earlier in spring, has to overcome the outside barrier. The promising SNOW IN MAY (10) is also unbeaten and will appreciate the Randwick 1400m course.

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RACE 8: 7 STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: I think FANGIRL (6) is the one to beat. She is a high quality mare, she’s had the soft trial after a more than acceptable first-up run with little excuses there. I just think the mile plays her way there this week. ZOUGOTCHA (7) was gallant in defeat in the Winx Stakes. She also has a similar set up to Fangirl with a trial since. She’s just got a lovely racing style, she doesn’t run bad. The X-factor could be ROYAL PATRONAGE (3) with different form. He’s a very interesting import. He beat Amelia’s Jewel over an unsuitable distance first-up so who knows what he could do here.

Thomas: FANGIRL (6) hasn’t won second-up for three years but that statistic is a little misleading as she has been racing at the highest level and never runs poorly. Her first-up third in the Winx Stakes was very good as she had to make her run wide out and was closing fast on the line. Fangirl will be improved by that run and is the one to beat. ZOUGOTCHA (7) held on for second in the Winx Stakes, she will put herself into the right position on speed and Fangirl will have to be on her game to run her down. ROYAL PATRONAGE (3) created a big impression on his Australian debut winning the Tramway Stakes and is even better suited going out to 1600m. HINGED (8) nearly broke a long losing run when edged out by Buckaroo in the Chelmsford Stakes which is good form for this race.

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RACE 9: THE SHORTS (1100m)

Dufficy: I was impressed with PRIVATE EYE (1) in the Concorde. I thought he showed that he was back. He was very soft in the market there and arguably in the wrong part of the track so 1100m suits him much, much better. LADY OF CAMELOT (7), the Golden Slipper winning filly, I want to forgive her first-up run at 1000m. Hopefully she can get into more of a rhythm at 1100m at home. No knock on I AM ME (6) who landed big bets winning the Concorde. Did get favours at 1000m but her 1100m form is just as good as her 1000m form so she is popular again. MUMBAI MUSE (12); if she reproduces what she did last week behind Sunshine In Paris in fast time, with that barrier one, she’s going to be right in the finish here.

Thomas: I thought LADY OF CAMELOT (7) was very game in defeat when third to Mornington Glory in the Moir Stakes. Lady Of Camelot didn’t have a lot of galloping room in the straight but never shirked her task and was only narrowly beaten on the line. The Golden Slipper winner has drawn a little wide but with so much speed inside her, she can slide across and be in a stalking position from the turn. STEFI MAGNETICA (3) is going to enjoy this frenetic tempo. She won the Stradbroke Handicap last winter and has retained some residual fitness as evidenced by her eye-catching barrier trial effort. Watch for her charging home. It’s hard to find any negatives for I AM ME (6). She ran very fast time winning the Concorde Stakes, is likely to get all the favours from her good draw and will go close. PRIVATE EYE (1) won this race last year and is more than capable of finishing right over the top of his rivals.

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RACE 10: The Agency Real Estate Hcp (1200m)

Dufficy: I don’t know what formlines to follow here. It’s a tricky race but I just think KIBOU (2) third-up now, blinkers, pushing forward, is going to give you a good sight. MORAVIA (3) was very good, finishing off nicely in the Concorde. Whether he was flattered by inside running, we’ll find out in this race. There is a bolter here in RAIKOKE (7) who is from the right stable. He was lame first-up but showed nice talent in Melbourne last preparation against the right horses and he might be way over the odds here.

Thomas: BATTLETON (8) lost a little momentum when he had to switch off heels at a vital stage in the straight and was narrowly beaten by Fox Fighter on the line at Rosehill last start. He should be peaking third-up from a spell and represents value in an open race. KIBOU (2) comes out of the same race as Battleton, finishing the closest of thirds, and he is also ready to win. MORAVIA (3) will find this much easier than the Concorde Stakes where he was beaten less than four lengths.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday: $6 best bet

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