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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy agree that punters can get an early win with Unusual Legacy at Rosehill on Saturday … but there’s plenty of value to be found, particularly late in the day.

Ray Thomas
11 min read
September 13, 2024 - 1:00PM
Hold All Tickets - Punters (Episode 3) 14-09-24

Racenent and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances on a bumper 10-race program featuring the Run To The Rose, Theo Marks Stakes and Sheraco Stakes at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

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DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 3 No.7 UNUSUAL LEGACY

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill on Saturday

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RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1200m)

Ron Dufficy: It is an even race obviously but I like TREIZE (5) here. I think she did more than enough on the wrong part of the track there first-up, fighting on well behind Well Time. With a touch of luck from a sticky draw, I think she is right in the finish here. I think the danger is HELLBENT ON YOU (9). I like the way she is trialling up. She showed talent last preparation and the stable is going well. She might be over the odds. ALABAMA STATE (15) looks a young three-year-old with upside. I like the way he levelled out winning an easier race there first-up at Hawkesbury. He is another one, that just that awkward draw makes it a little sticky for him. VICTORY LANE (1) was under a hold in a recent trial. I know he has got a big weight but he was very good in a strong race first-up last preparation.

Ray Thomas: ALABAMA STATE (15) burst through the pack and raced away to a very impressive win at Hawkesbury when resuming last month, recording very fast time for the 1100m. Emerging colt improving with racing although he has to overcome a wide draw. TREIZE (5) led for home but tired last when a first-up fifth behind Well Timed at Randwick three weeks ago. She’s a lightly-raced mare with ability and will be improved by that recent run. LADY SHENANIGANS (13) is coming off one of the best runs of his career when he led for a long way before a close second to Hi Dubai at Canterbury which is strong form for this race. LOVERO (3) ran well first-up behind the very fast Bonita Queen but she hasn’t won in four previous second-up attempts.

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RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1400m)

Dufficy: I am going to have something on WIGGLES (2) here. I think he is a horse that has his foot on the till and is ready to win another race. Hopefully he can race a little closer from the inside draw and give himself a chance to get over the top of them late. I think INTERVARSITY (1) is the danger. She is a promising mare with upside. She was very good winning at this level two starts ago and obviously that is a big tick last start getting to stakes level, close up there. Of the others, I think SPIRITS BURN DEEP (14) was a touch unlucky the other day getting held up at a vital stage. I don’t mind AGIRLSBESTFRIEND (12) freshened-up back in distance.

Thomas: INTERVARSITY (1) came from a wide barrier and was too good for her Highway rivals at Rosehill then she was competitive at stakes level in the Mona Lisa Stakes when beaten less than a length into fourth behind Terra Mater last start. Intervarsity drops back to Highway grade and is reasonably weighted after the claim. WIGGLES (2) is in good form and should get the run of the race from his favourable draw. EVERIDO (18) got too far back at Canberra last start and ran on strongly late. If he gets a start he can run a race. AGIRLSBESTFRIEND (12) is a consistent Highway performer and she can run well fresh.

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RACE 3: CHANDON HCP (1800m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on UNUSUAL LEGACY (7). He’s a nice staying prospect in the making. He was great first-up, this looks perfect for him with a bit of speed up front I think he can charge over the top of them. RAF ATTACK (2) is the danger. He was good at Hawkesbury, he maps quite nicely from this draw and should be around the mark. ROMA AVENUE (3), on a back-up here is a tough honest customer and I’ll throw in UP AND UNDER (8) who is a bit of a mystery after not being right last start but he’s more than capable if he puts his best foot forward.

Thomas: UNUSUAL LEGACY (7) got held up back in the run but stretching out generously late for an eye-catching third behind Too Much Caviar when resuming over 1500m here. They clash again but the extra 300m is certainly advantageous for Unusual Legacy. TOO MUCH CAVIAR (5) will race on speed, make his own luck and take plenty of running down. RAF ATTACK (2) ran well second-up in the Rowley Mile at Listed level and this is obviously much easier. He will be in the finish. The consistent ROMA AVENUE (3) is backing up after trying very hard at Randwick last week.

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RACE 4: HOT ROD & CUSTOM SHOW HCP (2400m)

Dufficy: It is hard to go past MATUSALEM (7). Obviously dry tracks are the key to him and Kerrin McEvoy gets on with him well. I know it is his first attempt at this distance but I can’t see any issue with that either. FIRST LIGHT (4) was okay second-up so this is his go third-up at 2400m. Three of his four wins have been at this distance so he goes in. CAMPALDINO (11) is an ex-Kiwi third-up here and with blinkers back on so he is attractive, although he is up a little in class. COMMANDO DRIFT (10) did an amazing job to win first-up at 2100m at Sandown last start so I think she commands a little bit of respect here with different form.

Thomas: I liked the way FIRST LIGHT (4) hit the line when fourth behind stablemate Matusalem here two weeks ago. First Light was having only his second run back that day and will be peaking now he’s up to his optimal distance range. He’s terrific value at double figure odds. MATUSALEM (7) is an emerging stayer but this is his first try at 2400m and he meets First Light on 3kg worse weight terms. CAMPALDINO (11) is a lightly-raced former New Zealander who was having only his second start for the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable when narrowly beaten at Warwick Farm last start. He’s a big improver. In-form mare FUN SUNDAY (13) is chasing a hat-trick of wins after a very determined effort at Newcastle and she drops 6kg here.

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RACE 5: NSW THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: I quite like I’VE BEAN TRYIN’ (1) here. He’s a genuine horse. He has great second-up statistics and I know he has got a big weight but he is beautifully-graded in a race like this. I think HIGH DANDY (17) might be his danger. He’s a bold running type of horse on the improve. Stiffer test for him here today but he’ll give a great sight up front. FIRESTORM (2) did win fresh first-up at 1400m last preparation. I am not convinced she is a stayer so I want to put her in. The best of the rest is VIVY AIR (13) who just needs luck from the awkward draw so third-up now, there is no excuses for her.

Thomas: HIGH DANDY (17) has been very impressive with successive wins since resuming, showing sustained speed to win both races by comfortable margins. He faces his moment of truth here going up in grade and drawing wide but he’s a promising horse with tactical speed. I’ve gone his way from VIVY AIR (13) who finds it hard to win but is never far away. CADETSHIP (3) tried hard when beaten narrowly in a similar race last start and he will be hard to beat again. OSMAN (5) is racing in a rich vein of form.

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RACE 6: SHERACO STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: JOLIESTAR (3) was just so exciting to watch first-up, toying with her rivals, so I can’t see her getting beat really other than the fact that I am not sold on the barrier draw. I think she’s got to be ridden probably a little closer, Ray. MAKARENA (8) sets up nicely, barrier one with a couple of trials under her belt. SUNSHINE IN PARIS (2) is a good yardstick, she’s a very good mare, ready to stamp herself for the TAB Everest. I’ll throw in COMMEMORATIVE (9) who will be rushing home with a run under her belt.

Thomas: It’s hard to tip against JOLIESTAR (3). If she turns up in the form that won her the Show County Quality first-up, she can win again – she was awesome last start and can clinch an Everest slot with a similar effort. The danger is definitely SUNSHINE IN PARIS (2). She’s a brilliant mare and broke 1m 9s to win this race so brilliantly when resuming last spring. Her trials have been good and she’s set to run well. COMMEMORATIVE (9) was doing her best work on the line when second to Kimochi in the Toy Show Quality. Fitter now and will be running on strongly. MAKARENA (8) is a talented mare who never runs a bad race.

• All Sunshine ahead of Everest hope’s Sheraco defence

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RACE 7: MING DYNASTY QUALITY (1400m)

Dufficy: I was taken with the trial of IMPERIAL FORCE (7) recently (fourth behind The Everest slot-holder Bustling). I know he had post-race issues first-up in a weaker race than this when a beaten odds-on favourite but I think he represents odds here and I think he is going to run well from that good draw. MAYFAIR (1) is very fit and well. The Storm Boy form reads well but he has to go from 1100m to 1400m which is not an easy task. JUST PARTY (3) is another one hard to approach after that cardiac arrhythmia first-up but he’s had a lovely easy trial since and I am wary of him. SNACK BAR (4) is yet to run a bad race and was pretty good first-up so he surely won’t be far away again.

Thomas: I like CLEAR PROOF (2) here, Ronnie. He’s a striking son of Justify who won his debut at $101 but showed that was no fluke when he came from last on the turn and ran on strongly for second to Gatsby’s over 1100m a month ago. Clear Proof is stepping out to 1400m but should be better suited over this trip. He’s at value odds, too. LADY SHENANDOAH (11) shaped well against boom filly Clean Energy in both starts last season and has the class will sprint well fresh. MAYFAIR (1) was competitive against Storm Boy last start but he’s getting out to 1400m and has to carry topweight of 59kg. If there is to be an upset, then IRON HAWK (6) is worth consideration. He ran well against boom filly Autumn Glow last start and should appreciate this trip.

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RACE 8: RUN TO THE ROSE (1200m)

Dufficy: It’s all about STORM BOY (2). He returned with a bang running his rivals into the ground and is hard to beat again off that effort but there is more opposition here. BUSTLING (4) was outstanding in Perth doing some really good things running time. He’s looked sharp on his right leg winning that recent trial so he won’t be any pushover. Neither will TRAFFIC WARDEN (1) who is a very talented horse. He looks in outstanding order. I know he is off a bleeding attack but I would suggest he is a hundred per cent ready to go. LINEBACKER (5) – I love this horse going forward. Whether he can win today is another story but he will run well.

Thomas: STORM BOY (2) showed sustained speed to lead throughout and dominate his rivals in the San Domenico Stakes. Boom colt who can be a touch slow out so barrier six should work in his favour, giving him the chance to get into stride early then drive forward into a controlling position, probably outside the likely leader Bustling. The best part of Storm Boy’s first-up win was the last 100m and he will be strongly through the line again. SWITZERLAND (3) looked a potential topliner with three wins to start his career including a brilliant effort in the Todman Stakes then had his excuses when unplaced in the Golden Slipper. He’s had two easy trials to prepare for his return but there has been good support for him this week. BUSTLING (4) isn’t the biggest horse in training but he’s big on talent and has looked sharp in his trials. TRAFFIC WARDEN (1) is another who showed a lot of ability last season and he was very impressive winning a recent Hawkesbury trial.

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RACE 9: THEO MARKS STAKES (1300m)

Dufficy: BASES LOADED (9) has got a little bit of work to do to get across from that draw but he bolted home in fast time in that most recent trial. I thought he might be a nice lightweight Epsom hope this horse and he might prove that here first-up. CELESTIAL LEGEND (1) is not generally regarded as a good fresh horse but is just a very good racehorse who should savage the line late and is obviously a good winning chance. PUNCH LANE (8) was dominant winning his past two in Queensland prior to that short break. Just a query whether the heavy tracks flattered him there. COASTWATCH (7) is an interesting horse who might be more forward than most here looking at his trials and he looked back to his best form at the end of last prep as well.

Thomas: CELESTIAL LEGEND (1) is obviously the class horse and might blow this field away but at the odds I want to have something on Airman. He was in the wrong part of the track at Randwick last start when sixth to a rampant Joliestar in the Show County. AIRMAN (5) has drawn wide here which suits his racing style as he likes plenty of galloping room. He’s got a race fitness edge and will run well at big odds. Celestial Legend is resuming and has topweight of 59kg but is well drawn in gate three. If he is anywhere near his best, he is clearly the one to beat. BASES LOADED (9) has residual fitness of a successful Brisbane winter carnival campaign and he gapped his rivals in a Randwick barrier trial two weeks ago. WHINCHAT (15) goes well fresh and is a good lightweight chance.

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RACE 10: TAB HANDICAP (1100m)

Dufficy: A throw at the stumps here with DASHING LEGEND (5). She went out far too hard first-up at 1200m and considering that, I thought she was excellent. So back to 1100m here with a hard run under her belt, I’ll have something on her in a race of many chances. BLANC DE BLANC (14) is up in class but drops in weight and has come back well. UNFLINCHING (3) is a query running the 1100m right out but will look the winner for a long way. OSTRAKA (4) probably wants a little further but was a stakeswinner at the end of last preparation and bears close watching here.

Thomas: I’ve gone wide again with INFANCY (10). There was merit in her first-up run when she didn’t get a lot of room in the straight and had to make her run in inferior going. Infancy will strip fitter and is over the odds. THE BLACK CLOUD (11) was disappointing first-up but is better than that and drops back in grade. There’s a lot to like about BLANC DE BLANC (14). She chased home a smart horse in Briasa first-up, she’s drawn to advantage here and is down in the weights. BOOM TORQUE (2), the Kosciuszko hopeful, is a dual acceptor but looks hard to beat in the closer.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

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