Kembla Grange tips, inside mail for Saturday October 19, 2024

A Brad Widdup gelding can go one better at Newcastle after resuming with a close second at the track and distance.

The Daily Telegraph and Racenet form analyst Adam Sherry gives his best bets and race-by-race analysis for Newcastle plus his top selection at Wagga on Saturday.

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NEWCASTLE TIPS

BEST BET

Race 3 No.1: Akaka Falls

Closed nicely for a close second when resuming over this track and distance. Kept fresh and can go one better.

NEXT BEST

Race 4 No.6: Trafalgar Square

Has tackled strong races so far this campaign including two legs of the Princess Series. Back to a Class 1 and ready to break through.

VALUE BET

Race 6 No.10: Socrazyinlove

First starter who was impressive winning her latest Warwick Farm trial on a heavy track after sitting wide.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1, 4, 5, 7

Race 6: 1, 4, 10, 11

Race 7: 1, 4, 7

Race 8: 4, 5, 10

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Alysha Collett has a nice book of rides and looks a good chance in the TAB Jockey Challenge.

WAGGA TIP

BEST BET

Race 4 No.6: Pearl Trout

Narrowly beaten on debut on the Riverside track. Will be better for the experience and can go one better.

NEWCASTLE INSIDE MAIL

RACE 1

Although beaten as an odds-on fav here two starts back, War Ribbon boxed on for second to subsequent Eagle Farm placegetter Lost Illusions. Was seven weeks between runs when a second to Tenbury Wells over 2000m at Kembla on Sept 28. Impunity needed the run first-up over 1400m before stepping up to 1800m when third to Fleet Commander in a BM64. Back in grade and extra trip suits. City Gold Ready and Stand In Line ran the quinella. Won’t be far away again.

Bet: War Ribbon to win

RACE 2

Aged Care was good in both runs last season when a closing second to Shall Be on debut at Newcastle before finishing a fourth to Overfull in the Inglis Challenge at Scone on May 17. Under a hold in both recent trials. Moncarolinia ran a cheeky fourth at huge odds behind Briasa at Kembla before a half-length second to Cassiel to end her first campaign. Only the one run last time in when making ground for fifth to Limahuli over this track and distance on July 13. Brokerage and Threefold have claims.

Bet: Aged Care to win

RACE 3

Akaka Falls was about three lengths off Reigning King at the 600m and whittled the margin back to a long neck second when resuming over the track and trip on Sept 21. Can go one better. Smiling Prophet was consistent in provincial grade last campaign including a Wyong win three runs back. Is a first-up winner at this track and distance and expect a forward showing. One Kind has won two from three first-up and placed four from five at the track and trip.

Bet: Akaka Falls to win

RACE 4

Trafalgar Square contested the Silver Shadow and Furious Stakes. Although down the order, was three lengths off Manaal in the latter. Was a length off the unbeaten Extremely Hardys in a BM72 on the Kensington last start. Back to a Class 1 and gets her chance to break through. French Ruler was runner-up to Wanaruah on debut at Canterbury in June. Resumed with a narrow win from Sisu Spirit in a Super Maiden at this track and distance on Oct 5. Snatchreilly can run well fresh.

Bet: Trafalgar Square to win

RACE 5

Mayweather is a debutant by Lonhro and a three-quarter brother to two stakes winners also trained by Peter Snowden. Took a sit before storming home to win his Canterbury trial by three lengths then had a similar run and was eased late when a nose winner ion his Rosehill trial. Chiba had trialled nicely ahead of his debut and started favourite when third behind impressive debutant Livin’ Thing at Hawkesbury on Sept 12. He will take good benefit from the run. Superhero and Lucky Force won’t be far away.

Bet: Mayweather to win

RACE 6

Socrazyinlove is a debutant by I Am Invincible from a great-granddaughter of Eight Carat. Sat three-wide and raced away to win her Sept 25 Warwick Farm trial on heavy ground. Flying Embers got a little keen in the run when fourth to Amelita first-up at Canterbury. Sat outside the leader and grabbed late by Obscure when second at Kembla last start. Ready to peak now. Tautou has solid form in her seven starts with four placings and finishing just behind the placegetters in the others. Less than a length off Yoshinobu at Wyong last start.

Bet: Socrazyinlove each-way

RACE 7

Russley Crown settled near last and was the widest on the bend before flashing home to finish a close second behind Rhythm Is A Dancer when resuming with 62kg in the Spring Cup at Tamworth on Sept 30. He won this race last year and is a huge chance to back-to-back. Dances With Hooves did a terrific job in her first campaign winning four of her eight starts and getting to the Group 1 Australian Oaks. Will take improvement from her first-up sixth behind Pippie Beach in a BM72 at Rosehill on Oct 2.

Bet: Russley Crown to win

RACE 8

Draco’s Fire is a consistent performer. Resumed with a second to the in-form Spanish Fox at Hawkesbury before a close fifth to Rush Attack and a third to Evenflow at his last two starts here. Drawn well and gets a 3kg claim from Mollie Fitzgerald. Kenmare Bay has been freshened since his second to Image Of The Sun in record time over 1900m after leading here on Sept 3. Audrey’s Lane has placed two of three this campaign. Won’t be far away again.

Bet: Draco’s Fire each-way

Originally published as Kembla Grange tips, inside mail for Saturday October 19, 2024