Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Cranbourne Cup day

A class drop should get Port Philip back to winning ways while a Lindsay Park-trained galloper can provide punters with a big finish to Saturday’s Cranbourne Cup meeting.

Port Philip will drop in class for his next assignment at Cranbourne on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Cranbourne Cup meeting.

BEST BET

PORT PHILLIP (Race 3, No. 1)

Pushed a subsequent Melbourne Cup placegetter all the way in the Bendigo Cup. That’s impeccable form for a Benchmark 84 race.

VALUE BET

BELLINGER (Race 9, No. 5)

His first two runs this time in have been solid and he’ll be fitter for those. He’s unbeaten at Cranbourne and should go close again in the last.

EARLY QUADDIE

2, 3, 5/1, 2, 6 /1, 4, 6, 9/2, 7, 9, 10

$100 flexi for 69.44 per cent

BIG6

1, 4/2, 7, 9, 10/2, 3, 4, 7/2, 4, 6, 9, 15/8, 12/1, 5, 12, 14

$100 flexi for 7.81 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7

Race 7: 2, 4, 6, 9, 15

Race 8: 8, 12

Race 9: 1, 5, 12, 14

$100 flexi for 50 per cent

RACE 1 (12:35PM): RHINO THE WRECKER 2YO PLATE (1000m)

Interesting race to start Cranbourne Cup Day with all but one runner on debut. Going with the runner with race experience SAILOR’S RUM (5) to start the day well for the McEvoy camp. There was nothing wrong with his debut run at The Valley and will improve on firmer footing. DOUBTING EYE (1) trialled OK in Sydney but has the big advantage of the running rail from barrier one. ROUSSILLON (4) should show plenty of speed and has drawn well. REMEDIES (9) is well bred and should show something on debut.

SUGGESTED BET: Sailor’s Rum each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Roussillon $4.20 – $3.70.

RACE 2 (1:10PM): O’BRIEN REAL ESTATE 3YO CRANBOURNE CLASSIC (2025m)

DUNKEL (2) impressed with the way he rounded up his rivals to score on debut at The Valley. He’s up in grade and I’m not sure he should be odds-on but he’s the one to beat. GOTTABESAVVY (3) fought on well to score at Moe last time and is showing staying ability. HE’S A LEGEND (5) is improving with racing and his on-pace racing style will be an asset for him throughout his career. RESERVOIR DOG (8) has looked in need of this distance in recent runs and can fill a placing.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 2, 3, 5, 8

TAB MARKET MOVER: He’s a Legend $7.50 – $5.50.

Impressive debut winner Dunkel will attempt to stay unbeaten for the Patrick Payne stable at Cranbourne. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 3 (1:45PM): REED CRANES & TRANSPORT MARATHON HANDICAP (2540m)

Happy to back PORT PHILIP (1) to return to winning ways after an excellent effort behind the subsequent Melbourne Cup placegetter High Emocean in the Bendigo Cup. He’ll find this much easier. NOBEL HEIGHTS (2) was outgunned in the Bendigo cup second-up but will be fitter and his best form is on good tracks. IDEAL MISS (6) was a comfortable winner in easier company at Cranbourne last time out but drops 7kg for this harder assignment. KISSINGER (3) was a close second behind Port Philip last time out and is better off against him at the weights.

SUGGESTED BET: Port Philip to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Port Philip $3.20 – $2.90.

RACE 4 (2:20PM) FRANKSTON SAND SOIL & MINI MIX 3YO HANDICAP (1200m)

GREECE (4) hasn’t raced since her dominant maiden win at Geelong in September and she should get the conditions she needs to fire at Cranbourne. Ethan Brown will give her every chance from barrier one. Her stablemate CALICO JACK (6) impressed winning at Cranbourne last time out and can continue to improve. MCTAGGART (9) is another improving type that scored at Cranbourne second-up. CROSSWINDS (1) is a talented sprinter that should go well despite giving away plenty of weight to his rivals.

SUGGESTED BET: Greece to win – if you must.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Greece $2.30 – $1.85.

RACE 5 (3PM): ROSEMONT STUD FILLIES & MARES PENDANT (1400m)

This is an open race but BLISTERING (7) could provide some value for punters after two strong efforts at her two spring runs and she’s drawn to get the right run in barrier one. MERE FANCY (10) hit the line well when resuming over 1200m and will be suited over 1400m. MEGAMEA (2) got back and ran on OK at Geelong last time but she was close-up in Group 2 company at Flemington two starts back. ADELE AMOUR (3) ran on well when not far away at Group 3 level at Flemington and drops in class.

SUGGESTED BET: Blistering each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: She’s All Class $5 – $4.20

RACE 6 (3:40PM): FREEWAY FORD SHOOTING STAR (1500m)

We don’t see many Class 3 races around Victoria but BRAYDEN STAR (7) should race well at the level in his Australian debut. His jumpouts indicate he’s settled well in the Busuttin and Young stable and can fire fresh. STAUNCH (3) is improving with racing and he’s one of the chances while VICTORY BAY (2) ran on hard to score fresh and will be fitter. THALER (4) impressed leading all the way at Pakenham and is worth including again.

SUGGESTED BET: Brayden Star to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Brayden Star $5 – 3.90.

Bold frontrunner Buffalo River will again give his rivals something to chase in the $500,000 Cranbourne Cup. Picture: Michael Klein

RACE 7 (4:20PM): LISTED CRANBOURNE CUP (1600m)

The Cranbourne Cup looks to be the hardest race on the carnival with the weather to play a big part. If the forecast rain arrives, BUFFALO RIVER (4) could be hard to run down after his game effort at weight-for-age at The Valley. If the rain stays away, UNCLE BRYN (6) should be finishing hard after a good Sale Cup win and a sound effort in Sydney. VISINARI (9) has been well-backed and has his share of ability while NO SURRENDER (15) could add value to exotics.

SUGGESTED BET: Back both Buffalo River & Uncle Bryn

TAB MARKET MOVER: Visinari $8 – $4.80.

RACE 8 (5PM): APACHE CAT CLASSIC (1000m)

There looks to be plenty of speed as usual in the Apache Cat Classic, which should give JIGSAW (12) every chance to park behind the pace and finish strongly from barrier one. MIDWEST (8) has plenty of pace and is genuine while ASHFORD STREET (3) was sound down the straight on Oaks Day and will be strong late. HE’S A BALTER (4) resumes from a successful Dubai trip and could show up fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Jigsaw to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Jigsaw $9.50 – $7.

RACE 9 (5:40PM): HERTZ HANDICAP (1300m)

Tricky race to finish Cranbourne Cup Day but BELLINGER (5) has fought on well at both runs this time in and the five-year-old is unbeaten at Cranbourne. MR MONEY BAGS (1) was OK without threatening first-up but he’ll be fitter for that. MERLIN’S CHARM (14) chased well at Sale first-up and is a second-up winner that has drawn well. RHINOCEROS (12) trialled well and wasn’t far away fresh so expecting him to be thereabouts.

SUGGESTED BET: Bellinger to win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Beaufort Park $26 – $14.

Smart sprinter Jigsaw can start his latest preparation with a win at Cranbourne on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

Originally published as Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Cranbourne Cup day