SuperCoach BBL 2019: How the ‘buy low, sell high’ theory can guide you to success
There was no greater SuperCoach BBL bargain last season than a $146,100 Marcus Stoinis. Those who jumped on the Australian all-rounder after three rounds were rewarded, highlighting the importance of trading at the right time.
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The buy low, sell high theory is a tried and tested tactic which equates to SuperCoach success.
In its simplest form, it involves buying a player at their lowest price point and trading them out when they reach their most expensive mark.
You can achieve this by monitoring break evens closely.
If a player is averaging 20 points per game and has a break even of 100, the likelihood their price will plummet is high.
While this is a proven strategy in AFL and NRL SuperCoach, BBL has been tougher to predict.
Take Australian and Melbourne Stars all-rounder Marcus Stoinis for example.
Stoinis had an average of 16.7 points per game after Round 3 last season and his price crashed from $227,900 to $146,100 as a result.
Those who jumped on at that point were rewarded handsomely when he was thrust to the top of the order, hammering 78 from 49 balls and taking 2-26.
But who could have predicted what was to come when his returns to that stage were two, 13 and 35 SuperCoach points from games of 0-17 and two, 22 not out and 0-9 and 10.
Stoinis only bowled two overs in the first three matches of BBL08 for the Stars before his campaign exploded with a man-of-the-match performance in the first Melbourne derby.
His 194-point return against the Renegades led to a $19,600 profit and by Round 9 he had soared past his starting price to $260,500.
From his low point, Stoinis rose by $200,400 to peak in price after Round 12 at $346,500.
Considering he was averaging 111.2 points, it would have taken a brave coach to trade him out.
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However, those prepared to cash in could have traded for a player such as Hobart’s D’Arcy Short, banked a $100,000 profit and strengthened other areas of their team.
The importance of double game rounds further complicates the buy low, sell high theory in SuperCoach BBL.
If a player seems certain to lose value but has two games scheduled in the next round, trading them would be fraught with danger.
Two big performances could be enough to bring their break even crashing back to a manageable total.
The Stoinis example shows how coaches who monitor BBL team news can excel.
If you became aware in the lead up to the first Melbourne derby of 2018-19 he was about to join Ben Dunk at the top of the order, his low price would have been too good to pass up.
Stoinis scored 194, 115, 199 and 188 SuperCoach points in consecutive games as an opener and would almost certainly have been the No. 1 player of the season had it not been for international duties.
However, there will always be exceptions to the rule.
If you wanted to capitalise on the lowest price of Matthew Wade (Round 1), Tom Curran (Round 1) or Cameron Boyce (Round 3), you needed the foresight to jump on early in the tournament.
But Dan Christian — who finished third for overall points behind Short and Stoinis — provided a perfect example of the buy low, sell high theory.
If you wanted Christian after Round 3, you needed to fork out $195,700.
By Round 9, he was available for more than $50,000 cheaper at $140,100.
Christian averaged 95 points in the Renegades’ last five games and amassed 126 in this side’s BBL final win over Melbourne Stars.
Finding a diamond in the rough isn’t always the difference between SuperCoach failure and success.
But pouncing on a bargain at the right time can go a long way to setting your apart from the pack.
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Originally published as SuperCoach BBL 2019: How the ‘buy low, sell high’ theory can guide you to success