The case for Nathan Lyon and the difference he may have made during the now unanswerable Ashes of last year

Australian spinner Nathan Lyon claims the Aussies could have won last year’s Ashes series in England if he didn’t suffer the calf injury that left him sidelined for three and a half Tests. DANIEL CHERNY analyses the scenarios.

The 2023 Ashes is cricket’s answer to the rabbit-duck illusion.

In the ultimate woulda, coulda, shoulda series, from which neither team left particularly satisfied following a 2-2 stalemate, there were umpteen sliding door moments to serve as fodder for both sides to claim that they were the ones most stiffed by the deadlock.

Nathan Lyon’s quip in a BBC interview published this week that Australia would have won the series 4-0 had he not pinged a calf in the Lord’s outfield is not a high point in cricketing humility.

But he also has a reasonable case.

Lyon didn’t specify which two of the three Tests he missed Australia would have won had he been available, but even a player as assured in his ability as the off-spinner is unlikely to have the temerity to claim Australia would have overcome a day and a half worth of Manchester rain to win the fourth Test, one in which England had by far the better of the play.

Nathan Lyon claims Australia could’ve won last year’s Ashes series if he didn’t suffer an injury. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images.

So would Australia have won at Leeds and The Oval had the veteran played in place of callow understudy Todd Murphy?

Australia lost those two Tests by three wickets and 49 runs respectively. These are narrow margins in the five-day format.

Murphy took 1-49 on Ashes debut at Headingley, entrusted for just two second innings overs by Pat Cummins as Harry Brook led England home despite the brilliance of Mitchell Starc.

Cummins justified his apparent lack of faith in Murphy by pointing to unfriendly conditions for spin, yet it is hard to imagine Lyon would have trundled so little in an innings that lasted 50 overs. Lyon had been crucial with bat and ball in the first Test at Edgbaston.

Murphy bowled nervously at Leeds, including straying for a front-foot no-ball, something Lyon has never done across his 14-year Test career.

But the Victorian also had Ben Stokes dropped twice (once by Starc and one caught and bowled chance) in the 40s during the first innings. Stokes made 80. It might have been the difference.

Lyon deserves the benefit of the doubt on this one, although wickets gifted by Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith to Moeen Ali during the match’s best batting conditions late on day two should not be overlooked.

The fifth Test is harder to argue in Lyon’s favour. Recalled after being left out in Manchester, Murphy took 6-132 for the match as well as making 34 and 18. That’s considerably better on both the batting and bowling fronts than Lyon’s career averages.

In short, Murphy played well at The Oval. It’s impossible to know if Lyon would have done better, but Murphy set a lofty bar, and Australia still lost.

Todd Murphy proved his position in the Australian team as he took 6-132 in the fifth Test. Picture: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images.

The Aussies can more readily blame the ball change that unsettled an opening stand of 140 between Usman Khawaja and David Warner. And they haven’t been afraid to talk about it either, with Khawaja and Warner both cheekily tweeting about the altered Dukes ahead of the Matildas’ World Cup semi-final with England a couple of weeks after the end of the series.

Australia was also stitched up by having to bat in grim late afternoon conditions on day three at Leeds, albeit England had confronted a nasty mini-session under similarly leaden skies in Birmingham a few weeks earlier.

Ultimately though, the tourists were sloppy with bat, ball and in the field across the final three Tests. Lyon might well have made the difference, but it is easy to forget England played the entire series without its first-choice spinner Jack Leach. Australia won the first two Tests by two wickets and 43 runs respectively. Leach is not in Lyon’s class, but when the gaps were so small, his presence could have shifted the first Test in particular, a match in which his replacement – the underdone – Moeen Ali took 3-204 and made 18 and 19.

Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne at the conclusion of the fifth Test that resulted in an Ashes drawn. Picture: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images.

Of course had England led 1-0, the second Test may have played out differently. Likewise if it had been 3-0 to Australia, perhaps the hosts would have folded.

Such is the nature of a series in which Australia retained the Ashes but could not end a 22-year stretch without an away Ashes series victory.

England sees a rabbit. Australia sees a duck. And that’s before even touchings the rights and wrongs of the Johnny Bairstow dismissal.

One of the few certainties is that the ambiguous nature of the series has left at least one protagonist desperate to find a definitive conclusion next time around.

Asked by this masthead just three days on from the end of the series what would drive him moving forward, Lyon paused, before adding, “We weren’t able to win an away Ashes, were we?”

The Aussies won’t be able to tick that box until 2027 at the earliest. In the mean time that allows for plenty more hypotheticals.

Originally published as The case for Nathan Lyon and the difference he may have made during the now unanswerable Ashes of last year