NBL grand final storylines: Stats and motivation that will decide 2024-25 NBL championship series
Illawarra is seeking just its second NBL title 46 years, Melbourne United is hunting redemption after last season’s heartbreak. Matt Logue and Michael Randall delve into the storylines that could decide the NBL25 championship series.
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Three-point shooting percentages are at an historical high ahead of the NBL25 grand final between the Illawarra Hawks and Melbourne United.
And it’s just the start, with the rapid rise in shooting tipped to reach unprecedented levels throughout the championship series.
United’s Chris Goulding created history in Tuesday’s all-time classic against Perth, dropping nine threes in a thrilling one-point win.
Goulding’s 22 three-pointers was a new record for makes in a finals series and he converted at an other-worldly 51.2 per cent (22-43).
United leads the league in three-point makes this season with 378 — Goulding No.1 with 115 of those — but Illawarra is the league’s most potent attacking juggernaut, No.1 in offensive rating at 125.2 points per 100 possessions — and Tyler Harvey’s 92 treys is third in the league.
The Hawks became the first team in NBL history to shoot 50-40-100 in any finals game in Wednesday’s game three win over the Phoenix — 56.3 per cent from the field, 48.7 per cent from the three-point line and a perfect 17-17 from the free throw line.
The Hawks made 19 threes against the Phoenix a figure topped only three times this season — twice by United with 20 and once by Perth with 21
That allowed the Hawks to rattle up the second-highest score of the NBL season (126) and biggest halftime total in the modern 40-minute era — 70.
THE LITTLE ENGINE THAT COULD V THE POWERHOUSE
It is a sporting script writer’s dream. The perceived small market Illawarra Hawks up against competition heavyweights Melbourne United.
The long-suffering Hawks have dealt with relocation calls and the franchise has found itself in liquidation on multiple occasions as it bounced from owner to owner.
Yet, through all the turmoil, these foundation Hawks have not only found a way to survive but thrive throughout a record-breaking NBL25 season.
Now Illawarra is just three wins away from the club’s second-ever championship, an achievement that would mean so much for the coastal club.
But it was only 12 months ago United shattered their dreams by taking out a 2-1 semi final series win. Have those scars healed?
UNITED’S REVENGE TOUR AFTER LAST YEAR’S HEARTBREAK
It’s hard to beat a talented team, but it’s even harder to topple a talented team that has a point to prove.
That’s Melbourne United in NBL25 after the league powerhouse fell short in the playoffs in two of the past three seasons.
Tasmania has been the thorn in United’s side, delivering a semi final series loss in NBL22 and a heartbreaking 3-2 defeat in last year’s grand final.
United is primed for revenge and, led by veterans Chris Goulding and Matthew Dellavedova — who might be playing his last games in a United jersey — will be determined to bury the club’s post-season demons.
ONE TITLE IN 46 YEARS
The locals in the Gong are pumped at the prospect of a second NBL championship for their beloved Hawks — but they’re also feeling the pressure.
The men from Wollongong won their sole title 24 years ago, but there is an expectation the Hawks can end the drought this season.
As the NBL’s best offensive team, Illawarra is in a prime position to beat Melbourne United and hang another banner in the rafters.
But will they handle the bright lights on the big stage?
GOULDING’S FLOP ANTICS
The Illawarra faithful will be baying for Chris Goulding’s blood as they put the Melbourne United sharpshooter’s history of flopping under the microscope this season.
Back in round six, Goulding’s flailing prompted Hawks coach Justin Tatum to unload on the United star in his post-game press conference.
The Hawks’ coach was slapped with a technical foul after he questioned a foul against Will Hickey on Goulding that was ultimately cancelled out due to an error with the clock.
“We’re just happy that Chris Goulding didn’t hurt himself flopping in front of us. So I’m glad he’s injury free,” Tatum said with a hint of sarcasm.
Goulding’s return to the ‘Gong in round 12 came with a daunting reception from the Illawarra fans who showered him with boos whenever he touched the ball.
The supporters also created signs and T-shirts sledging the United guard, including one that monitored his flop count throughout the game.
Goulding has clearly cleaned up that aspect of his game as the season has worn on — but don’t expect the rabid locals to notice.
FROLING’S HAWKS FUTURE
Uncontracted star Sam Froling’s future is such a forbidden subject that Hawks officials have banned questions about the big man’s contract.
Froling is weighing up his options after Code Sports revealed the Hawks’ first offer was less than half of what he could receive on the open market.
The lucrative Asian market has emerged as a potential landing spot and there are other NBL clubs preparing offers but the big man loves Illawarra and it’s hard to see him leaving — provided the Hawks play ball with a fair offer.
For now, Froling is locked in on Illawarra’s bid to win the NBL25 title — and a strong performance in the championship series would only bump up his contract value.
As they say, ‘Yesterday’s price is not today’s price’ and Froling has been dominant against United, with back-to-back double-doubles, including a 20-point, 11-rebound monster in December’s win.
VICKERMAN’S PURSUIT OF MORE GREATNESS
As far as top-shelf NBL coaches go, Melbourne United’s Dean Vickerman stands right at the top alongside the greats.
Vickerman is aiming to win his fourth NBL championship if he can guide United past the high-flying Illawarra Hawks.
A fourth title would rank him equal third all-time with Brian Kerle, behind only Brian Goorjian (six) and Trevor Gleeson (five).
The veteran mentor — who has also collected four titles as an assistant coach — is one of the sharpest minds in the game.
This was on show in the semi-final decider against Perth when he drew up a perfect in-bounds play to seal the game with seconds on the clock.
TATUM’S BID FOR FIRST TITLE AFTER COACH OF YEAR GONG
Justin Tatum has well and truly earned his stripes as far more than just the father of Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum.
Justin is a legit coach in his own right — proving it by guiding the Hawks to the top of the ladder for the first time in franchise history and winning the NBL’s Coach of the Year gong.
Now Tatum senior has the chance to join the NBL’s record books if he can steer Illawarra to its second ever title.
The American-born mentor has transformed the Hawks into an offensive powerhouse more than capable of beating United to lift the trophy.
He’ll just have to make sure he keeps a lid on things with the referees, given an almost season-long war with the whistleblowers has landed him in hot water several times.
HORSE TO MAKE MARK AGAINST FORMER TEAM, HICKEY’S HOPE
Illawarra power forward Mason Peatling is one of only two Hawks who knows what it takes to win a grand final.
The man affectionately known as ‘Horse’ — for his high workrate — won that title at Melbourne United in NBL21.
Peatling’s mid-season shift into Illawarra’s starting five has been quietly one of the biggest strategic moves of the season and he’ll now play a key role in the Hawks’ bid to take down his former club.
Wani Swaka Lo Buluk boasts three titles (with Sydney and Perth), albeit as a little-used role player, but, like Peatling, he will be crucial for the Hawks, particularly in his efforts stopping United’s talisman Goulding.
When Will ‘Davo’ Hickey was at Melbourne United, he was a little-used development player. On Saturday, he’ll be one of Illawarra’s most important.
The bench dynamo is a relentless, athletic beast who plays starters’ minutes and gives All-NBL guard pair Tyler Harvey and Trey Kell valuable rest.
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