Wreck It Ralph: The bare forwards market and how clubs are going to get inventive
As Kyle Langford’s emergence as a long-term forward continues to gather steam, the future of another Bombers goalkicker is under the microscope. Which rivals could swoop?
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Jack Riewoldt is going down swinging.
The future Hall of Famer and triple Coleman Medallist would love to be playing as Robin to Tom Lynch’s Batman with a favourable match-up each week as he eases into retirement.
Instead as Richmond surges back into finals contention with Lynch sidelined he is taking one for the team.
Goalless in five of his past nine games, he is still battling manfully to bring the ball to ground like he did in that 2017 season playing alongside five Richmond smalls.
But a Richmond side refusing to go quietly into the night clearly needs a succession plan for Riewoldt (24 goals) given it is 11th for points scored this season with Samson Ryan (12 goals) the only other key forward in double figures.
Tom Lynch will return next year after a season decimated by a foot injury but for all of Ryan’s potential Richmond desperately needs a second target by round 1 of 2024.
As the AFL home-and-away season winds down Richmond are far from the only club scouting key position forwards.
Hawthorn is even more desperate for a key tall — behind the brilliant Mitch Lewis (24 goals) and 187cm VFL success story Fergus Greene (15 goals) they have only Jacob Koschitzke (eight games, six goals) as they throw Denver Grainger-Barras forward in desperation.
St Kilda is about to join the queue with Max King’s season over, Tim Membrey battling a degenerative knee issue and Anthony Caminiti exciting but exceptionally raw.
Essendon began the season in the same queue but have they found their solution in Kyle Langford?
He has 32 goals in 16 games and is only scratching the surface of his potential as Peter Wright hits form off his own shoulder reconstruction.
So who are key position targets available for that quartet of clubs in what is an extremely modest market?
Clubs looking for key backs and interceptors have a wealth of options if they want to pay up – Tom Barrass, Ben McKay, Tom Doedee, Mason Redman, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Esava Ratugolea, Harry Himmelberg, even Jeremy McGovern at a pinch.
But Hawthorn, Richmond and St Kilda will have to sort the wheat from the chaff in what is a bare key position forward market this off-season.
1. Harry Himmelberg (GWS)
Himmelberg is a free agent, is considering his options and kicked 38 goals in 2019 and 36 in 2021.
Richmond is just one of his suitors as they hope to reunite him with good mates Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto at the Tigers.
But he is already exceptionally well paid – $700,000-$800,000 in this year’s AFL Rich 100 and has slotted in perfectly as the intercept tall in a GWS backline with Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley doing the heavy lifting.
With Adam Kingsley building a great culture at GWS the prevailing view of rival clubs is he might just stay.
The GWS academy product would need to balance the lure of playing in front of huge Victorian crowds with the added attention and pressure of playing key forward, aware no one has missed Tim Taranto for his deficiencies despite a brilliant debut season at Richmond.
Is it financially irresponsible to throw $800,000 a season at a player better suited down back?
2. Mitch Georgiades (Port Adelaide)
Georgiades wants to know if Port Adelaide will hand him ample opportunities in coming seasons after he was dropped to the SANFL this year and last season before his ACL tear.
Port Adelaide will whisper sweet nothings to the 21-year-old uncontracted tall but how often will he play alongside Charlie Dixon (soon to be recontracted), Todd Marshall and Jeremy Finlayson?
Especially given Ollie Lord, contracted to 2024, is hugely rated within Port Adelaide for his capacity to lead hard and straight at the ball?
So Richmond, Hawthorn and St Kilda would have to decide if they could pay $600,000 or so a season for a player dropped in the past two seasons who at 191cm is very much a foil rather than the No. 1 forward?
And who is coming off a mid-season knee reconstruction.
The upside is obvious – 32.17 in his second season, 23.24 in his third – for a player who only turns 22 in September.
Clubs need to decide if he is the style of forward they need given he is boom or bust – the seventh worst loss-rate of the top 50 for one-on-one contests this year but the 16th best win-rate.
In other words, not a consistent pack-crasher to bring the smalls into the game but exceptional when his hands are sticky and he drifts in from the side of a pack to mark and goal.
3. Harrison Jones (Essendon)
The potential is obvious for key position talent Jones, whose early seasons have been ravaged by injuries including a back stress fracture that has seen him shut down already this year.
35 goals in 31 games averaging over a contested mark a game, a pair of games in 2021 with five contested marks playing as a 20-year-old.
He’s not the quick fix Richmond might be after but at St Kilda and Hawthorn he would grow alongside their developing talls.
The question is why he would leave Essendon given the opportunity that is ahead of him if he can get his body right.
So if Essendon offers the kind of contract this year that represents his potential it might be hard to drag him out of the Hangar.
4. Tom De Koning (Carlton)
De Koning wants to ruck.
He will always be the second ruckman behind Marc Pittonet at Carlton.
But if he does move St Kilda is interested in him as a second forward behind Max King who also releases Rowan Marshall to play forward.
Marshall’s monster season has moved him into All Australian calculations but he still has only a solitary goal this year (he kicked 13 in 2020) which shows how seldom he is able to roam forward under the current structure.
Here is the worrying number for De Koning.
In 50 AFL games he has kicked only 16 goals.
He has won only three of his 15 one-on-one contests this season.
This year in nine senior games playing a 73-27 ruck-forward split he has only four goals.
It would be a leap of faith to think he can transform into a 40-goal-a-season forward given this is his sixth AFL season.
If he truly wants to maximise his career as a ruckman Geelong is his perfect landing spot but St Kilda might offer a more lucrative contract to drag him out.
Decision time is coming.
The Blues and Cats might offer $600,000 a season but St Kilda could trump them if they truly believe in De Koning’s potential.
5. Jake Riccardi (GWS)
Hawthorn are an interested party but the problem for rival clubs is that they might have to pay up to $500,000 a year to drag out a player who is pretty much a goal-a-game forward.
He has never kicked more than 16 goals in a season and won only one of his 12 one-on-ones this year.
He has been goalless in five of his 11 games but his best is great – five goals against Fremantle and seven forward-50 marks, three goals and eight score involvements against Hawthorn.
He is 23 turning 24, so if you slotted him into a forward line as the second forward with quality delivery what is his upside?
If clubs are going to pay an above-average salary, will they be guaranteed an above-average output?
6. Jack Darling (West Coast)
At his best Darling has been a weapon and the Eagles should consider all options to maximise their draft hand but Darling is surely too old and too costly.
He has just turned 31 and kicked 15 goals in 13 games this year, and is due as much as $800,000 a season for the next two years.
If he was cheaper Richmond might consider him as a stop-gap for three seasons while Ryan, Ben Miller and Jacob Bauer developed but not at $800,000 a year.
Would the Eagles pay some of Darling’s salary to get a top 30 draft pick in exchange?
They would need to for rival clubs to get interested.
7. Ash Johnson (Collingwood)
He is a jumping jack who kicks goals, he can play second ruck, he is a lovely shot at goal (15.9 last year, 18.9 this year).
Rival clubs have come strongly at him given they believe he has been pushed down the pecking order with the introduction of Dan McStay.
But McStay’s injury issues have given him enough game time this year – 13 games, 18 contested marks – to believe he has a future at the Pies.
That means he is set to be taken off the table as a live prospect as he nears a new deal.
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Originally published as Wreck It Ralph: The bare forwards market and how clubs are going to get inventive
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