Wreck It Ralph: The 10 hard questions Carlton needs to answer if the Blues want to rise above mediocrity

With the Blues at a crossroads with their expectations and goals, there will some tough choices to be made after 2023 surrounding its fringe talent in order to determine where the list is headed.

The Blues have struggled all season. Picture: Getty Images

Carlton believed it could be truly great this year.

Instead it is spectacularly mediocre.

Not awful, not in crisis, not about to sack its coach.

Just truly, totally average.

And when you are an average team not maximising your assets, you get beaten by teams like Adelaide, St Kilda, Brisbane, the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood.

And after five losses in six weeks the Blues will be tarred with the label of flat track bullies until they can start beating teams above them on the ladder.

For a team that missed only Zac Williams from its very best 22 against Collingwood, Sunday’s performance was alarming because it showed how far off the pace the Blues are against true contenders.

Carlton is only two points out of seventh spot and has Sydney, Melbourne and Essendon to come.

Its core profile in the past five weeks is reasonable.

They rank seventh with the footy and sixth without it in all the measures Champion Data prioritises.

So how does Carlton go from average to good – before it even considers great?

Don’t worry about Patrick Cripps and Michael Voss having a strong exchange of ideas on the boundary line mid-match.

That is exactly how teams get better.

By tough conversations, by confronting the average and trying to turn it into something special.

So what are the serious questions Carlton needs to address to turn its season around?

Carlton players look dejected after their loss to Collingwood. Picture: Getty Images

1. Is the midfield really as good as advertised?

The sneaking suspicion is that Michael Voss might realise for all of the stars – Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, the improving Adam Cerra – the Blues might just not bat that deep.

Alternatively if the best players are just out of form instead of not quite good enough, what are Voss and midfield coach Matt Clarke doing to get them back at the top of their game?

George Hewett finished fifth in last year’s best-and-fairest but was relegated to the sub on Sunday, while Matt Kennedy has had his go with the vest after finishing ninth in last year’s John Nicholls Medal.

Ollie Hollands had 10 possessions and was subbed out at half time, Matt Cottrell was excellent last week but had 11 touches.

So here is the weirdest stat in footy. Carlton ranks No. 1 in the comp for contested possession differential but only 11th for clearance differential.

The Blues are third in the comp for winning first possession from a stoppage but are 16th from converting it into a pure clearance.

So the Blues win the first possession more than nearly every other team but can’t turn it into a clearance.

The First Crack boys on Fox Footy showed excellent footage of Collingwood’s structure around a contest and wave run compared to Carlton’s ball winner being abandoned by his teammates.

So that is on Voss and Clarke to coach a structure that keeps enough players at the contest to support the ball-winner while others aggressively charge forward.

Carlton’s capacity to get its hands on the ball means Voss has so many options with tactical tweaks to actually turn this midfield into a weapon instead a high-disposal, low impact outfit.

2. While we are on the midfield, has Paddy Dow just been sidelined as a player never to return to the seniors?

He had 41 possessions, 11 clearances and six centre square clearances in the VFL on Sunday.

He averages 31.5 possessions a game.

Every Blues fan realises he has deficiencies but 69 per cent kicking efficiency in the VFL for a very inside mid is far from terrible.

So here is the point – is Carlton leaving no stone unturned to improve that flaw or is he a player with papers stamped until his contract expires at year’s end?

If he doesn’t play this week it’s hard to see how he gets into the side ever again.

3. How many players have improved across the season?

It goes to the heart of Carlton’s status as an average team this year after so many players like Matt Kennedy and Adam Cerra had career-best seasons under Voss in his first year.

This year based on AFL Ratings Jesse Motlop, Charlie Curnow and Adam Cerra have improved while all of Zac Fisher, Hewett, Harry McKay, Patrick Cripps, Jack Silvagni, Kennedy and Tom De Koning have gone backwards.

Fisher is a major talent – eighth in last year’s best-and-fairest but after 20 possessions in the VFL on Sunday can’t find a way to maximise his gifts.

4. Is it the game style?

Michael Voss wants to play a steady and measured game style that prioritises defence even though their best footy has been when Carlton has played with a spirit of adventure.

We get it – there is a balance between all-out attack that exposes a defence and finding the right moment to hurtle forward at break-neck speed.

But just as Chris Scott overhauled Geelong’s ball movement to help Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins, there comes a time to change things.

Fremantle made tactical tweaks that helped get the Dockers out of a funk, but Carlton remains 15th in the competition for metres gained by handball.

And they are second in the competition for backward kicks – 13 a game.

Michael Voss is unapologetic about wanting to be defensively sound but there is a significant price to be paid at the other end.

The midfielders also don’t kick goals – Walsh has two for the year, Cripps one, Cerra three, Hewett one and Kennedy two.

Compare that to the wave-running Pies, who don’t cheat but push hard forward.

Josh Daicos has six, Nick Daicos six, Jordan De Goey nine, Tom Mitchell four and Taylor Adams four.

Pressure is building on Michael Voss. Picture: Getty Images

5. Is Tom De Koning a centre half back?

Fox Footy’s David King has pushed that barrow for a while, but it is at least worth trying.

Mitch McGovern averages 2.3 intercept marks a game but no impact at either end as the Blues shuffled him forward.

Would you trust him to play well in three or four finals in a row?

Jacob Weitering and Lewis Young are both average for intercept marks this year, and Lewis has had a very good season.

But just as Carlton’s recruiting team including Paul Brodie threw up Liam Jones as a potential backman, kick-starting one of footy’s great comeback stories in 2017, can De Koning be tried as a backman?

He came back from concussion in the VFL on Sunday and had 24 possessions and 34 hitouts so he’s ready to play AFL again.

Carlton challenged him to get into such form he played forward ahead of Jack Silvagni or first ruck ahead of Marc Pittonet, but given their funk surely he can be part of the solution?

This week’s opponent Sydney is seen as his main suitor, so their belief he is gettable will only grow if he remains in the VFL.

6. If De Koning isn’t a centre half back, surely he is the back-up ruckman.

Michael Voss has a big decision to make.

Because as good as Marc Pittonet is in the centre bounce – and he is absolutely awesome – the Blues don’t get enough from their entire ruck set-up.

Pittonet averages an astonishing 10.8 hitouts to advantage per game – 18, 11, 15, 18 and 6 in the last five weeks – but hasn’t kicked a goal this year and has just six contested marks in nine games.

And when Jack Silvagni went into the ruck against Darcy Cameron for 10 contests the Blues lost the clearances 2-6 and the Pies kicked 13 points from those clearances.

Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy have 13 goals between them, Sam Darcy and Luke Jackson 15 between them.

So it’s time to play De Koning in some shape or form in this team and test Sydney’s marking power given its decimated defence.

Tom De Koning has been stuck in the VFL. Picture: Ian Currie

7. Can Luke Sayers unite Carlton’s tribe?

Sayers has been the AFL’s invisible president.

He was initially advertised as a no bulls*** leader who would unite the Carlton factions, which at times resemble the warring clans of Game of Thrones with just as much bloodshed.

As Bruce Mathieson’s outburst to the Herald Sun’s Michael Warner showed last weekend that is no easy task.

No one wants Sayers as a bumbling John Elliott-style ranter and raver prepared to comment in every development.

But at appropriate times they want him to reassure the fans about the club’s direction and its path forward through appropriate channels in the media.

Credit Carlton for putting football boss Brad Lloyd forward multiple times in recent weeks to fill that role.

On Monday Sayers finally stepped forward, saying the Blues should be held accountable for their finals marker and backing in coach Michael Voss.

It was the right time to step forward, and he should be more prepared to be a public voice when the right is right.

The Blues need stability and Sayers’ term expires by the end of next year - likely replaced by vice president Robert Priestley - while CEO Brian Cook’s three-year deal expires at the end of 2024 too.

The sooner they extend Cook to the end of 2026 the better given he is keen to remain for at least five seasons.

8. Should Carlton have had a deeper look at recruiting Liam Jones?

Carlton fans get cranky when that question is asked, and it is true that signing Jones on a three-year deal was a risk.

But the Blues knew good he was, he was technically on their list, and he would have allowed Young or Jacob Weitering to play as an interceptor.

Just a reminder of Jones’ year.

In his main match-ups he kept Darcy Fogarty goalless on the weekend, Harry McKay goalless in round 9, conceded one goal to Jesse Hogan in round, kept Mitch Lewis goalless in round 7, kept Luke Jackson goalless in round 6, kept Jeremy Finlayson goalless in round 5, kept Dustin Martin goalless in round 4 and Joe Daniher goalless in round 3.

It’s an extraordinary list for a player who can also take on that intercept role which McGovern is battling with at present.

Carlton’s defensive profile is sound – seventh for points conceded, seventh for opposition points per entry – but given the Blues set up with defence as a priority just “sound” might not get it done.

Did the Blues make a mistake going by not going after Liam Jones? Picture: Michael Klein

9. What do Carlton do differently?

Nathan Buckley smashed it out of the park when he said Carlton doesn’t take away the opposition’s strengths six days before Darcy Moore took an AFL record 11 intercept marks.

Granted, he was playing on Charlie Curnow, so the Blues couldn’t put a defensive forward on him.

But you don’t take 11 intercept marks if the team you are playing against is kicking to the advantage of Curnow.

Carlton’s money kick – that kick inside 50 – was the fourth-worst of any team on the weekend as they retained the ball at 42 per cent.

But across the year it is 7th, another reminder that Carlton is mediocre but not that far away.

It would help if Jack Martin and Fisher were at the top of their game with ball in hand at half forward but both are out of the side.

What is Carlton’s point of difference that separates it from the rest of the pack?

It should be the two key forwards but tactically the Blues are behind their rivals.

Collingwood outnumbers better than anyone, the Dogs play a special stoppage game, St Kilda grinds its rivals into the dirt, Port thrives on fast ball movement, Melbourne’s mid-forward connection is vastly improved.

People have wondered if the Blues need an elite tactical mind to help Voss, but Ash Hansen should be that figure given how vast a loss he was to the Bulldogs.

10. Do they need to make some tough list calls?

Carlton would be tearing its hair out about its injury toll these past seasons, with it costing the club a finals berth last year given so many key players were sidelined or hampered.

There will come tough decisions at year’s end given David Cuningham and Caleb Marchbank are out of contract after playing so few games in recent years.

Cuningham has played 41 games in seven and a half seasons – and only four since the start of 2021 – while Marchbank has played 45 in six and a half seasons at Carlton but returned through the VFL Sunday.

The Blues have been able to minimise that list to the point where only Williams is out long-term of the first-choice players and Paddy Dow, Brodie Kemp, De Koning, Lachie Plowman, Fisher, Marchbank, Josh Honey and Lachie Cowman all played VFL.

But the Blues have still lost the sixth-most games to injuries this year and eighth-most of their 22.

The spine has been intact – all of Silvagni, Curnow, McKay, Weitering and Young have played every game along with Cripps, Cerra, Ollie Holland and Nic Newman.

But Voss would believe he has never had a prolonged run at it with his best midfield creating synergy and cohesion.

Originally published as Wreck It Ralph: The 10 hard questions Carlton needs to answer if the Blues want to rise above mediocrity