With St Kilda and the Bulldogs circling, what is Adelaide defender Alex Keath worth at the trade table?
Statistically, Alex Keath was one of the best key-defenders in the AFL this year and his numbers stack up against Jake Lever’s 2017 season. What could the Crows expect in return this time around?
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If out-of-contract Adelaide defender Alex Keath decides to continue his career interstate, what he’s worth at the trade table?
The 27-year-old, who is seeking a longer-term deal at West Lakes, toured St Kilda’s Moorabbin facilities on Monday and has no shortage of suitors in Victoria with the Bulldogs also reportedly keen on the former first-class cricketer.
After playing just 12 games in his first two years on the list, Keath made his mark at the Crows in 2019, taking on the intercepting role after Tom Doedee’s season-ending knee injury in Round 1.
Keath didn’t just fill in, either, he starred.
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Of all key-defenders, the 197cm Keath, who won a Showdown medal in his 20th career game, ranks first for contested possessions (7), fourth for intercept possessions (8.3) and fifth for disposals (16.3), rating elite in all three categories.
On average, only Jeremy McGovern, Dane Rampe, Phil Davis, Sam Frost and Aliir Aliir won more possession from an opposition disposal than Keath in 2019.
And, despite missing four matches with a leg injury, Keath’s 49 intercept marks was nine more than any Crow.
His ability to read the play, leave his man and dominate in the air is obvious but Keath also proved he is a terrific one-on-one defender.
Of the top-25 players in the competition for total defensive one-on-ones contested, Keath’s loss percentage of 22.4 is the 10th-best.
In the first 17 matches of the year, Adelaide conceded 9.9 marks inside-50 per game — the fourth-best number in the competition.
But with Keath missing between Rounds 19-22, the opposition took full advantage, with Carlton (16), St Kilda (9), West Coast (14) and Collingwood (19) recording 58 between them in four weeks
And his 2019 numbers stack up against former Crow Jake Lever in his last year at West Lakes.
At the end of the 2017 season, following the grand final loss to the Tigers, Lever, who wanted to return home, was traded to Melbourne in exchange for pick No. 10 and the Demon’s first selection in 2018.
Lever was a 21-year-old, with 56 games to his name, not yet in the prime of his career.
While in a football sense, Keath is young, he will 28 by the start of the 2020 season so it’s unrealistic for Adelaide to expect that sort of return from any club this time around.
But Keath’s best football might still be ahead of him and his from this year, arguably, warrants a first-round draft selection.
*Top-10 lowest loss-percentage of the top-25 for total defensive one-on-ones
Former Gold Coast co-captain and key-defender Steven May, who was born 10 days before Keath, was traded to the Demons last off-season, along with talented, yet injury-plagued midfielder, Kade Kolodjashnij for pick No. 6.
The Bulldogs also cashed in Marcus Adams, whose career has been interrupted by injury, in 2018, trading the 26-year-old to the Lions for pick No. 32 and a 2019 third-round selection.
Is Keath’s market-value somewhere in between, especially given he’s out-of-contract?
As the draft order stands, St Kilda hold pick No. 5 but don’t have another selection until the fourth-round (55).
But with the likes of Jack Steven and Jack Carlisle being thrown around in trade discussion, the Saints’ draft hand may change by November.
The Bulldogs, however, currently hold picks 12, 30 and 41.
While pick No. 5 is too much, would Luke Beveridge and his list-management group give up its first-round selection for Keath to sure-up its premiership-challenging list, allowing emerging star Aaron Naughton to stay forward in the process?
Pick No. 12 for a former Category B rookie, who was playing was playing district cricket in Adelaide four years ago sounds like good business for the Crows, especially with Tom Doedee set to return next year.
However, it would bring the player-retention issue to the fore, again, and be a hard pill to swallow for an already-disgruntled supporter base.
And, of course, be a hit to the club’s immediate future given his importance to the back-six.
But there’s no doubt another top draft pick will help fast-track a much-needed list rejuvenation.