Ultimate AFL trade guide: Who is on the move, which rumours to ignore
NORTH Melbourne will try to broker a trade for big man Braydon Preuss — but one rumoured swap is definitely not thappening. JON RALPH and SAM EDMUND look at where he and all the other big names could land.
THERE are two competitions raging, but only one of them is being played out in public.
Less than a month out from the start of the exchange period, the names are flowing thick and fast between clubs.
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JON RALPH and SAM EDMUND try to make sense of a complicated landscape.
TAKE IT TO THE BANK
Tom Lynch
Take this to the Reserve Bank. Richmond will get its man, winning a three-way battle with Hawthorn and Collingwood. But the machinations of the move remain up in the air. There’s every chance the Suns could benefit from a separate deal where Corey Ellis and Anthony Miles move to the Gold Coast for a swap of late picks. The AFL would have to clear it to ensure it wasn’t seen as a sweetener to the Lynch free agent move.
Jared Polec
Confirmed one of footy’s worst-kept secrets when he nominated North Melbourne as his club of choice. The Roos’ offer of $3.5 million over five years was too good to knock back. Now it’s up the clubs to work out a deal.
Scott Lycett
Has made clear to his manager he hasn’t made a decision, but would go to Port Adelaide if he did leave ahead of St Kilda, which has offered exorbitant cash over four or five years. Played for the Port Adelaide Magpies as a kid, but West Coast is desperate to keep him. Still leaning towards a move east.
Mitch McGovern
Everything points to the Blues, who we’re hearing could be announced as McGovern’s club of choice soon to get it out of the way. The Crows are playing up his worth, but are likely to accept a mid first-round priority pick or maybe an end-of-first-round priority pick with a sweetener. Still not sure how it gets them the No.1 overall pick.
Luke Dahlhaus
He would want to be the 2016 version for the Cats to believe he will be a forward pressure game-changer. Kicked 2.4 from 15 shots this year, and even with 44 per cent midfield time that is an alarming stat. Gradually the Dogs are shedding the players on their list who couldn’t refocus after the 2016 flag.
Andrew Gaff
His emotional high-five with Adam Simpson after the win against Collingwood shows what a tough decision he faces. But West Coast is getting the feeling it’s just all adding up — the aftermath of his strike on Andrew Brayshaw, his old man still recuperating from a major health battle and the scope of North Melbourne’s offer. Brad Scott might feel like he is Lewis Hamilton — in pole position.
WORK TO DO
Sydney quartet
This has been the week for honest conversations between the Swans and Dan Hannebery, who is looking more likely that he won’t stay in Sydney. He loves the club, his mates, the city and the Bloods culture, and he’s a vice-captain but after averaging 18 disposals a game (eight of his 15 games returned fewer than 20 possessions) Sydney is happen to broker a deal to the Saints.
Still owed $2.4 million and three years of his deal. Maybe St Kilda is in such need of a win it is prepared to take the risk on a four-year deal with an option of a fifth. But the Saints won’t use their No.3 pick to secure him.
Gary Rohan is also on the way out, most likely to Geelong, but he’s unlikelty to attract more than a third-round pick.
Gold Coast has no interest in Jake Lloyd, making that clear as recently as this week. The major hurdle was the salary demands. Amazingly, the Suns have an extremely tight cap, brought about by a complex combination of injury payments that forced it to back-end some existing contracts.
Like Lloyd, the uncontracted Nic Newman drew early interest that has since cooled. Tom Harley says the Swans are “confident” Lloyd wants to stay, but until he signs the prospect of another suitor emerging can’t be ruled out. Lloyd’s manager returns from holidays next week.
North Melbourne’s to-do list
Aaron Hall will leave the Suns. Brad Scott is an admirer and thinks he can get the best out of a player not known for his defensive desire. Others at Arden St wonder if a leopard can change its spots.
The Roos will try to orchestrate a trade for wantaway big man Braydon Preuss, but only on their terms and are happy to keep the ruckman, who is contracted until the end of 2020.
A new deal for tagger Ben Jacobs in only a matter of time, Scott Thompson will sign a new one-year deal and while there’s a bit of water to go under the bridge with Jed Anderson, the Roos are confident a contract will be signed.
Steven May
The Courier Mail’s Andrew Hamilton reports May has visited two Melbourne-based clubs and the Suns were exploring the possibility of tearing up his contract so he could leave as a free agent — an idea the AFL knocked on the head. Stuart Dew says he will stay put as contracted player but that seems increasingly untenable. Magpies might only be able to afford if him if Darcy Moore leaves.
Tim Kelly
Staying in Geelong for a month to enjoy the delights of the town with his partner and three kids. His manager Anthony Van Der Wielen says unless a “compelling offer” came to the Cats, he expects Geelong to kybosh a trade. But he won’t sign a contract until the new year at earliest.
Jack Steven
Saints fans would abandon the club in droves if their best player left, so St Kilda has already shut down the talk of a trade to Geelong. Cats coach Chris Scott was just as emphatic it wasn’t being seriously entertained.
Lincoln McCarthy
Are the Lions only interested in McCarthy as a teaser pony for best mate Lachie Neale? They say not true, confident they can fix his issues despite only 29 games in seven years.
Lachie Neale
Has met Chris Fagan and some at the Lions believe the Docker star will join them. Yet Steve Rosich is confident he stays. Weighing it all up now. Pick 4 (soon to be pick 5) is about right for him. Lions in no hurry on a decision with trade period still a month away. Dayne Beams is definitely staying.
Jordan Roughead
Open to moving to a new club at the end of the year after spending most of this season in the VFL. Met West Coast recently. His manager says he’s been approached by “a number of clubs”. St Kilda is known to be interested. Restricted free agent.
Gary Rohan
Out of favour in Sydney after a difficult year from a family perspective. Contracted until the end of 2020, but expected to seek a move back home to Geelong. Would go for a later pick.
Dylan Shiel
Wants to come home, but to where? Hawthorn? Carlton? Essendon? This will be like dropping a goldfish into a school of piranhas. Industry chatter has the Blues dangling a huge financial carrot of $1.1 million a year. GWS paid $250,000 more than it had planned for Josh Kelly and paid big cash to Rory Lobbe in 2016, with Jeremy Cameron also on megabucks next year. All of that explains the tight salary cap.
Parting Pies
Darcy Moore hasn’t bitten on Collingwood’s deal, lodged in January. Now talks are off until the post-season. Sydney is exactly the kind of club that under Andrew Ireland would back in its injury program to get his hamstrings right and turn him into a foil for Lance Franklin. Especially if they have cleared $800,000 of cap space a year from Dan Hannebery. Despite confusion, Will Hoskin Elliott is contracted to 2020, with Brody Mihocek keen for a two-year deal.
Meanwhile, Carlton is poised to swoop on unrestricted free agent Alex Fasolo, who has played just one senior game this year.
George Horlin-Smith
Strongly linked to Gold Coast. Coach Stuart Dew said today he is “obviously interested” in the midfielder.
Will Setterfield
Has missed all of 2018 with an ACL injury, but that has done little to subdue Carlton’s interest in the GWS midfielder — the No.5 pick in the 2016 draft.
SPINNING THE RUMOUR MILL
Josh Kelly
Why wouldn’t Carlton ask about this man? Everyone’s talking about Shiel, but this would solve the Giants’ salary cap issues and the Blues would give up pick No.1 for Caleb Marchbank’s good mate.
Reece Conca
Fremantle has a longstanding interest in acquiring the West Australian and the rumours persist given Conca remains unsigned at Punt Rd despite bouncing back to produce his best season since 2014.
Jesse Hogan
Whispers have surfaced again. His Perth-based manager Jason Dover told the Herald Sun last month he was happy and settled in Melbourne — the club and city. But Sam Weideman’s emergence will get the rumour mill started and it won’t die down until Hogan signs a new deal past 2019 given Fremantle’s desperation. Could Andrew Brayshaw be part of any future trade, uniting with brother Angus?
Luke Parker
Essendon keeps coming up in conversations. Would be the perfect fit at Tullamarine for a side crying out for midfield help. Still, hard to see how Sydney let this man go given he’s 25 and contracted until the end of 2021.
Chad Wingard
Hawthorn has lost Cyril Rioli, the Western Bulldogs are about to lose Luke Dahlhaus and David Koch has said no Port Adelaide player is off limits. His manager Tom Petroro has said he is staying put, but his name will re-emerge in discussions.
Rory Lobb
Signed a lucrative deal in 2016 off a career-best year and while he is said to be happy at a club which has only one lead ruck, speculation continues.
Jack Hombsch
Has been put in the shop window by Port Adelaide and Hawthorn is said to have offered a passing glance.
AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN
Dom Tyson for Braydon Preuss
A direct swap was raised with both clubs, but knocked on the head by the Roos, who don’t see a need in acquiring Tyson.
Tom Scully
Linked to Essendon and Hawthorn, but happy in western Sydney and took a pay cut on his massive initial deal to remain there. If you are trading for cap space, he’s not the bloke to get rid of. Despite his name being repeatedly raised in conversations he seems happy to stay put.
Jon Ceglar
Has been repeatedly linked to any Dylan Shiel trade to Hawthorn, but the Giants have told the Herald Sun they have no interest in the big man, who is contracted until the end of 2019.
Mitch Honeychurch
Linked to Gold Coast, but they have told the Western Bulldogs they aren’t interested as he tries to find a new home with more opportunities.
TRADE HQ: MORE AFL TRADE STORIES
Originally published as Ultimate AFL trade guide: Who is on the move, which rumours to ignore