Moneyball: Latest AFL trade, draft and contract news
The fallout from Collingwood’s firesale at the end of last season is still not over – here’s why the player purge will impact another off-season.
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Collingwood’s salary cap “hangover” from its disastrous off-season purge will only prevent it from high-priced October acquisitions rather than another imminent player firesale.
Pies football boss Graham Wright conceded on Thursday the Pies were not out of the woods from a cap perspective, despite jettisoning Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Phillips.
A series of decisions to back-end deals and push back money to fit in players including Dayne Beams is still biting, with Brodie Grundy in the first year of a seven-season, $7 million deal.
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But the Herald Sun understands the Pies will fit under the cap this year, which will not result in bold decisions to offload the likes of Steele Sidebottom or Jordan De Goey.
Instead, the 2-9 Pies are determined to build their talent and when their cap position improves by the end of 2022 can launch targeted strikes on free agents.
For a bottom-four team, the Pies’ considerable wage bill is still out of kilter given a litany of decisions that came home to roost at the end of 2020.
Many were overly generous and attainable bonus clauses on contracts, while some were back-ended deals that will see the Pies pay $300,000 of Treloar’s deal for five seasons.
Collingwood list boss Ned Guy’s last duty was the mid-season draft before leaving, with Troy Selwood brought into recruitment and Wright set to rejig the list-talent responsibilities.
But Wright told SEN Radio on Thursday Collingwood did not need to offload players to get under the 2022 cap.
“There’s still, I suppose, a hangover, in relation to salary cap,” he said.
“We’ve still got some issues there, but they’re not insurmountable at all.
“There hasn’t been any conversation around how we look at the list from an end of year perspective and exactly what we’re going to do.
“Obviously we took two younger players in the mid-season draft on Wednesday night, and that was really around talent, so from our perspective, we’re looking at how do we bring in talent and using all mechanisms of player acquisition to do that – whether that be trade, free agency, whether that be draft.
“From a talent perspective, we need to keep as many talented players as we can, so I don’t think that’s in our thinking at the moment, but it hasn’t been discussed either.”
The eight list decisions
The Collingwood list decisions ahead will hopefully set it up for its next period of success and include:
- A DECISION on Mason Cox’s future with the American Pie off contract at year’s end on a $500,000 deal which will relieve cap space.
- LEVI Greenwood’s future as he battles concussion symptoms with his modest contract expiring at year’s end as he hits 33 next February.
- WILL Chris Mayne retire and head into coaching, with his form strong (averaging 120 ranking points, 27 possessions in the past three weeks) but the stalwart likely not in the next premiership side.
- HOW will Nick Daicos’s recruitment affect their 2022 national draft, with the Pies likely to go into points deficit if he goes at pick 1 and they have to match 2400 draft points.
- EXTENDING Jeremy Howe’s deal past 2022 with the high-flyer open to an early extension and confident he can return to his best after an excellent prognosis after hamstring surgery to remove scar tissue.
- HOW to best utilise Scott Pendlebury, with the star midfielder out of contract and set to play on with a new deal but having been pushed to half forward in recent weeks to allow the kids to thrive.
- HOW do the Pies kick-start Josh Thomas, with a player who kicked 38 goals in 2018 having played 10 games for an average of 13 disposals and two total goals for the year?
- IS Brayden Sier a foot soldier or something more after a brilliant 2018 season but only six moderate games in 2021 with the out-of-contract inside mid averaging 2.7 clearances?
TIGERS FIGHTING TO KEEP HOLD OF ‘INCREDIBLE’ TALENT
Damien Hardwick admits the Tigers will have to ward off rival suitors for Callum Coleman-Jones as he desperately tries to find his frustrated ruck-forward a spot in his side.
Coleman-Jones has rival clubs keen, with GWS a constant suitor after twice attempting to prize him out of Punt Road.
The exciting key tall has had an excellent VFL season but has not cracked it for an AFL game after serving a 10-week AFL ban for COVID issues in Queensland last year.
Asked about rivals hunting Coleman-Jones, the No. 20 pick in the 2017 national draft, Hardwck agreed on Friday the suitors would come hard.
“Yeah, I would too. We think he’s an incredible player. He is just one of the guys with the structure of our side, I shouldn’t say he doesn’t fit in but we have gone down another avenue at this stage.
“I sat down with him this week and told him how well he was going. He has had a really, really good year at VFL level and we would love him to get a game, he’s just not quite in the mix with the way we are playing at the moment. It’s not to say that won’t change moving forward, but he’s doing all he can do, it’s just up to me to pull the trigger and get him in the side.”
The Tigers continue to play only one ruckman in Toby Nankervis, who is in career best form, and two key talls in Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt.
Riewoldt is in talks on a contract for 2021 and Ivan Soldo should return from a knee reconstruction in 2022 so Hardwick knows he will have to weigh opportunity with his love of Punt Road.
“It is a tough balance, but he knows how important he is to us but he also craves opportunity.
As much as we say we would love to get him in the side it’s my job to figure out how it happens.”
LIONS SUCCESS STORY SET FOR NEW DEAL
The stunning injury recovery program that has turned around Joe Daniher will now see Lincoln McCarthy granted a new deal at Brisbane.
McCarthy has just kickstarted talks on a new two or three-year deal after Brisbane’s medical team turned him into one of footy’s most resilient players.
After a torrid run of injury at Geelong he has missed only two of 51 possible games since he crossed to Brisbane at the start of 2019.
Those games were through a suspension and a corked leg for a player who had battled hip, groin, back and foot problems in 29 games over seven years in Geelong.
McCarthy’s brilliant left-hand handball to teammate Rhys Mathieson to set up a goal last week was dubbed the handball of the decade.
Now, his management is talking with Lions recruiter Dom Ambrogio about a deal that could be two years with a trigger on a third season.
McCarthy is starting to exhibit the special talent that saw him such a special junior talent before his body started to break down with injuries.
Brisbane captain Dayne Zorko is also in talks on a new two-year extension that is close to completion.
Essendon free agent Daniher had battled groin issues for two seasons and had only just returned to the AFL before accepting a three-year deal at Brisbane.
He has barely missed a training session let alone an AFL game, justifying a three-year deal worth well above $2 million to ensure the Dons secured a first-round compensation selection.
The Lions have also found a way to keep Grant Birchall on the park after his body continually failed him with a persistent knee injury.
After he made his Lions debut in Round 2 last year he has missed just two of a possible 26 games with Brisbane.
Nakia Cockatoo played two VFL games early in the year but continues to challenge himself to push through minor pain, with his injury history having made him cautious about pushing his body to the limit.
He returned to the field in the Lions’ clash with Gold Coast on Thursday night as the Lions push him to trust his program rather than pull back when he feels minor soreness.
ONE MCKAY TWIN SET FOR BIG PAY RISE?
North Melbourne’s Ben McKay is set to secure a hefty pay rise after an excellent season, where he’s emerged as the club’s full back for the next decade.
Contract talks are underway with McKay after a season in which the 23-year-old has shown he can become the long-term replacement for the dependable Robbie Tarrant.
The Roos already have bucketloads of cap space and have Dom Tyson and Aaron Hall coming out of contract on lucrative three-season deals signed under Brad Scott’s reign.
So the Roos will be able to compensate McKay, confident he has been one of the finds of a year where their No. 13 draft pick Tom Powell has also established himself as a star of the future.
Powell has averaged the second-most possessions of any 2021 draftee (18.9) averaging 78 ranking points and 6.5 contested possessions.
McKay played only four games in his first three years at the Roos before 11 games last year and then every contest so far this year.
The Roos have conceded 864 points this year — 81 points more than 17th-placed Hawthorn — but McKay has kept Ben Brown to two goals, Tom Hawkins to one major and Charlie Dixon to a single goal.
Josh Bruce (four goals) and Taylor Walker (three goals) have kicked multiple goals against him but he was hailed for attacking the ball from in front of Hawkins after early marking defeats.
His win-loss record in defensive one-on-one contests ranks 13th across the competition.
McKay’s brother Harry is a Coleman Medal contender who is set to command a massive salary over $800,000 a year, with talks to take place on his deal when the club hits the mid-season bye.
Ben McKay, who has separate management, is seen as a more low-key figure whose contract talks will progress more smoothly, in keeping with his role as a key position defender.
Rival clubs expect Harry McKay will stay at Carlton, but he will be keen to maximise his contract worth after 30.17 in eight games this year.
The Roos are enduring a winless season with an injury toll so severe their VFL side recently fielded 16 players at one stage while players were being assessed by medicos on the sidelines.
The Roos are expected to take Sandringham forward and ruckman Jacob Edwards in the mid-season draft, with the key tall a likely first-round pick in the 2021 national draft if he held out.
Clubs have recently been told players nominating for the mid-season draft can nominate on the proviso they secure an 18-month contract, which the Roos will be happy to hand over.
It will allay fears players like Edward might end careers with a serious injury as mid-season selections when they could have secured two-year deals in the national draft.
SAINTS HAVE KING-SIZED TRADE PLANS
St Kilda is expected to launch a massive bid to poach Gold Coast’s Ben King to join his twin brother Max in Saints’ colours.
The Saints remain eager to land the star spearhead at the end of next season when King’s contract with the Suns expires.
St Kilda’s strong interest in the No. 6 draft pick puts the Suns on notice to continue their climb up the ladder and contend for finals next year or risk losing King.
The third-year goal kicker has informed clubs that he doesn’t want to discuss his next contract until next season, with his focus firmly on the team’s on-field performance this year.
But St Kilda, which has loaded up on midfielders in the past three trade periods adding Brad Crouch, Brad Hill, Zak Jones, Jack Higgins and Daniel Hannebery, could help round out the club’s list build if it can snare the Sandringham product on a long-term deal.
The Saints face key decisions on a number of its players this season including free agent Jack Billings, workhorse midfielder Seb Ross, swingman Jake Carlisle as well as Hannebery to help manage the salary cap at season’s end.
Hannebery’s lucrative five-year deal expires at the end of 2023 but the former Swan has been heavily restricted by injury in his first three years at Moorabbin.
“If it keeps being that he can’t play, time will start to burn out, but we are not looking at it that way,” chief operating officer Simon Lethlean said last month.
Ben King has shown he can comfortably play at both ends throughout his junior career, but the goal kicker wants to develop his career as a forward where he has booted 65 goals in 39 games with the Suns.
His brother Max has booted 34 goals from 25 games on the back of his recovery from a knee reconstruction.
If successful in the trade raid next year, St Kilda would have one of the most dangerous forward combinations in the competition for the next decade if it can pair-up the King twins.
Western Bulldogs’ legend and AFL Academy coach Brad Johnson told the Herald Sun recently the pair would soon become two of the best key forwards in the game.
“The King boys could be kicking 160 goals between them each year, with the way the game is going,” Johnson said.
“Their movement and agility is like no other 200cm players that I have seen.
“They read the ball well, they attack the contest, they don’t lose their feet.
“And when the ball hits the deck, it is like ‘wow, what is happening here’. And that is what we are seeing today. They are never out of the contest.
“That is what will set them apart as they get bigger and stronger.”
Gold Coast has made significant strides forward as a club under new coach Stuart Dew and is confident its on-field progression and off-field environment will be enough to keep the Sandringham product in Queensland.
The Suns have recently signed up a batch of their youngest stars including Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Izak Rankine.
But any decision from King could hinge on the Suns’ ability to show they are capable of playing finals for the first time in their 11-year history.
All discussions on his future have been parked by his management, Connors Sports, until next year.
The Saints pipped the Suns by nine points on Saturday with Ben King nailing three goals one behind from nine disposals and Max King registering one goal two behinds from seven possessions.
Max King said last week he is not pestering his brother about his future.
“No I’m not quite in his ear, he’s happy up there at the moment, so I leave him to make his decisions for himself,” Max King said.
“I stay out of that, Gubby (Saints’ recruiter Graeme Allan) can do what he wants.”
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