Success of picking key forwards early in draft and recruiters’ view of top choice Aaron Cadman
The AFL trade period caused huge change to the order of this year’s draft. Sam Landsberger analyses what it all means for the early picks and who could go where.
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North Melbourne is set to secure arguably the best two players in this year's draft, with most clubs understood to not have key forward Aaron Cadman ranked as the No. 1 talent in the open draft.
Greater Western Sydney is set to crown Cadman No. 1 — or No. 2, if it first bids on Brisbane Lions father-son Will Ashcroft — leaving the Kangaroos with the next two selections after Monday’s mega trade.
The Roos, having offloaded No. 1 and Jason Horne-Francis for No. 2, No. 3 and Port Adelaide’s future first-rounder, are expected to take two of Elijah Tsatas, Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw from the top bracket of players that also includes Jhye Clark, Reuben Ginbey and Bailey Humphrey.
Some clubs do not have Cadman ranked in their top seven players (including Ashcroft) and think using the No. 1 pick on him would be a stretch.
It is not a unanimous view — others firmly believe Cadman is a top-three talent based on his competitiveness and matchwinning traits — and the Giants have been desperate to draft a key forward all season.
But is Cadman simply the best option in a weaker group of talls or is he a genuine goalkicking saviour?
And are the Giants drafting with a different currency given their continual bevy of prized picks?
Clubs often compare output with those who have gone before them in similar positions as they try to decide whether they fit into the King twins or Harry McKay bucket or 2015 strugglers Josh Schache and Sam Weideman.
Even Logan McDonald — who the Kangas also passed up — was left out of Sydney’s grand final team.
Cadman reminds some of Charlie Curnow, but they also say Curnow had more upside than the Darley dazzler.
The concerns on Cadman centre around his contested marking and how he will adapt to AFL when there's no anti-density rule.
Suddenly the likes of Tom Stewart will be flying across packs as third man-up, whereas this year Cadman has had oodles of space to work with.
Cadman is better known for his endurance and temperament rather than his elite speed and experts say he sometimes attempts to mark high balls one-handed.
There is still a lot of love for Cadman and he is a popular teenager and tradie who should settle into live in Sydney. Cadman is clearly a top-10 talent — but is he the best? Or are the Giants drafting on a needs basis?
The consensus from rivals on Tuesday was that gaining an extra top-three selection made sense for the Roos because when you're firmly in rebuild mode you simply want more goes at getting it right.
As St Kilda list boss James Gallagher said: “Typically your gun midfielders, your champion and your star midfielders, come in the first four, five, six picks of the draft”.
Clubs who know Clark say he is straight down the line, consistent and tough … ala Joel Selwood, and Geelong would love to draft him with the No. 7 selection it received along with Jack Bowes from Gold Coast.
Clark might be a touch too early for North’s pair of picks, but Tsatas wouldn’t be.
This kid is a powerful midfielder who can get outside like Ryan Griffen.
He might not the most coachable kid in the draft and perhaps represented a flight risk for West Coast, possibly contributing to its decision to trade down from the No. 2 pick.
Meanwhile Wardlaw is the combative, powerful onballer who reminds some of a country kid even though he's a Melbourne boy at St Kevin’s.
Wardlaw loves 80s and 90s music, but his hamstring haven’t been in tune this year and multiple tears have left some clubs worried about his durability.
And then there's the class of Sheezel, who plays like the striker in the set. Sheezel has strong footy IQ and is as creative — but perhaps not quite as hard — as 2007 Norm Smith Medallist Stevie J once was.
Harry Sheezel on this incredible goal: "I had to chase after it. Then I just knocked the guy off the ball, picked it up, didn’t even look at the goals, and turned around - it was a good feeling."
— Dan Batten (@danbatten_) September 16, 2022
He didn't even look! #AFLDraftpic.twitter.com/VPs490vugd
Sheezel has been a gun the whole way through the junior ranks and planting him close to goals will make opponents nervous.
Essendon, lurking at No. 4, will select one of the players in that bracket — possibly Wardlaw, Sheezel or Tsatas.
When you look back at big finals it is rare for key forwards to kick a bag.
The premier usually get it done on the back of a dominant midfield enabling, like Geelong last month, a Tyson Stengle (four goals) and Isaac Smith (three) to bob up on grand final day.
Previously it has been Dustin Martin (four goals in 2019 and 2020) and Sheezel probably fits that mould.
TRADE RATINGS: WHO WON THE AFL MEGA TRADE?
Sam Landsberger, Chris Cavanagh and Marc McGowan
It is one of the biggest deals in AFL history.
But who really won the 2022 ‘mega-trade?’
Our expert reporters give their verdicts on all four clubs.
Do you agree? Have your say in our poll below.
SAM LANDSBERGER ON THE MEGA DEAL
PORT ADELAIDE
10/10
Powered into premiership contention in the final year of Ken Hinkley’s contract on the back of the best deal in club history. Reckon every club would’ve handed Jason Horne-Francis a six-year deal 12 months ago when he was the standout No. 1 draft pick, excluding Nick Daicos, and to land him and Junior Rioli without sacrificing a player is a crowning moment for list boss Jason Cripps.
NORTH MELBOURNE 8/10
Cut their losses with Horne-Francis and will effectively turn him into two terrific teenagers in the next 13 months. Suspect the Kangas didn’t have Aaron Cadman in their talent board’s top three, meaning they will now secure the players they rank No. 1 and No.2. Expect that to come out of Elijah Tsatas, Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw. Veteran recruiter Scott Clayton has gone full-time at Arden St to work on this draft and will work wonders with these selections. Nice outcome from a nasty situation.
WEST COAST 5/10
Perhaps the Eagles thought Elijah Tsatas was a flight risk at pick No. 2 and so they split it into No. 8 and 12. But what happens if local standout Reuben Ginbey is gone before No. 8 in a Victorian-dominated draft? Reckon the Eagles gave up too much and the talent drop from No. 2 to No. 8 might be costly.
GWS GIANTS 6/10
Would many other clubs take Aaron Cadman at No. 1 or are the Giants drafting on a needs basis? They did a mountain of work on fellow key forward Matthew Jefferson as well but it appears Cadman is their man. He is a great kid who will settle in Sydney, but is he really the saviour in the ilk of a Max King, Ben King or Harry McKay? Or Lance Franklin going back 18 years? Some clubs aren’t too sure he will be, and all clubs - except Brisbane Lions - hope they rightfully bid on Will Ashcroft before picking him.
CHRIS CAVANAGH ON THE MEGA DEAL
NORTH MELBOURNE: 7/10
Look to have made the best of a bad situation with Horne-Francis, who shaped as a poster-boy for a decade. With picks 2 and 3, North could replace him with a pair of talented midfield mates in George Wardlaw and Elijah Tsatas. Plus, a mid-table finish for Port next year could deliver another top-10 pick. Time will tell.
PORT ADELAIDE: 9/10
The Power hit the jackpot by luring home one of the best players to come out of South Australia in some time, that being last year’s No. 1 pick Horne-Francis. Junior Rioli was also high on Port’s hit-list, with the club having targeted a quality small forward. The only way this deal comes back to bite a little is if the Power finishes lowly on the ladder next year, given they have handed over their first pick in what shapes as a super draft in 2023.
WEST COAST: 5/10
The Eagles didn’t want to lose Rioli and have ended up handing over pick 2 when the top-end of this year’s draft stands out from the rest. Picks 8 and 12 would put them in the frame for some home-grown West Australian talents like midfielders Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett and key defender Jedd Busslinger, though.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY: 7/10
The Giants will get the player they want and need in this year’s draft in key forward Aaron Cadman. But they might have got him at pick 3 anyway, without giving up pick 12. That said, they still have three other picks inside the top-20 which is more than enough to secure a good draft haul this year.
MARC MCGOWAN ON THE MEGA DEAL
PORT ADELAIDE:9/10
Traded in their two top targets – Jason Horne-Francis and Junior Rioli – at decent value, while retaining the capital (pick 33) to launch a late bid for Esava Ratugolea. Big tick.
NORTH MELBOURNE: 7/10
You can’t say the Roos aren’t bold but Jason Horne-Francis had to go. There is an equal chance this proves the right call as there is in it backfiring. They might not be done dealing either.
WEST COAST: 6/10
Traded down, likely to select two Western Australians – Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett – and dodge the go-home factor, but they gave up pick two and Junior Rioli for only an OK return.
GWS GIANTS: 8/10
The Giants wanted the No. 1 pick and went and got it, although they definitely paid for it. The jungle drums say they will take key forward Aaron Cadman, who’s been likened to Jeremy Cameron.
Originally published as Success of picking key forwards early in draft and recruiters’ view of top choice Aaron Cadman
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