The Phantom’s Trade Talk: A Giant trade and the rookie-price defenders
BLOG RECAP — Dealing with the Jack Billings-Christian Petracca dilemma? Or just want to find some value in the forward line? The Phantom looks at a Giant trade and which rookie-price defenders should go first in this week’s edition of Trade Talk.
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DEALING with the Jack Billings-Christian Petracca dilemma? Or just want to find some value in the forward line? The Phantom looks at a Giant trade and which rookie-price defenders should go first in this week’s edition of Trade Talk.
If you’ve got the Jack Billings-Christian Petracca forward-line double, I feel your pain.
Their decline has been rapid and now, at less than $370k, there is not a lot of value in trading them.
Unless you’ve got the cash, it would take two trades just to upgrade one of them.
And that’s why I am planning to hold both, upgrade the rest of my side and eventually push one to the bench.
Hopefully by then, they have found some form.
As discussed on The Phantom’s Lair SuperCoach podcast, if I had to dump one this week, it would be Petracca. Billings has more runs on the board and, at his best, he’s a great SuperCoach scorer. At the start of the year, I selected Billings on the numbers he produced in the back half of 2018 but with Petracca it was more so about what he could potentially do.
But even though I will be holding both, I can’t say I haven’t been tempted by one Giant, in particular, who provides a quick-fix solution.
On Saturday against the Eagles, popular pre-season selection Rory Lobb ($382,800, fwd) was impressive in his first game back after hurting his knee in Round 3.
GWS’ No. 1 ruckman, who is only a forward in SuperCoach, tallied 12 disposals, 11 contested possessions, 14 hitouts-to-advantage – the fourth-most for the round – and 107 points.
While he shared ruck duties with Lachlan Keefe, Lobb should start to take over as he builds over the next few weeks.
And, eventually, Jon Patton will be re-called, which may force Keefe out.
Lobb showcased his potential as the No. 1 man in the finals last season. The 25-year-old took charge in the absence of Shane Mumford in the semi-final against the Eagles, recording 11 disposals, 39 hitouts – 13 to advantage - and 108 SuperCoach points.
He backed it up the week later in the loss to the Tigers, finishing with nine disposals, 30 hitouts – 15 to advantage – and 129 points.
With a breakeven of 65, Lobb, who was great in Round 1 with 97 points before a quiet Round 2 and injury-affected 59 in Round 3, is unlikely to get any cheaper and is set for a Round 9 showdown with North Melbourne’s Todd Goldstein, who has conceded SuperCoach tons to opposition ruckman in his past two matches.
If you have James Sicily in your forward-line, Lobb could also be worked into trade plans revolving around a rookie-price defender, such as Jeremy Finlayson.
An injury-free Lobb, playing as the No. 1 ruckman, can average in excess of 95.
How brave do you feel?
ROOKIE-PRICE DEFENDERS
Jeremy Finlayson (GWS) $345,300
Average: 81, Breakeven: 85, Past 3 scores: 65, 62, 61
Tom Doedee (Adel) $355,300
Average: 81, Breakeven: 90, Past 3 scores: 83, 68, 56
Sam Murray (Coll) $336,800
Average: 75, Breakeven: 62, Past 3 scores: 62, 76, 65
Aaron Naughton (WB) $289,900
Average: 53, Breakeven: 100, Past 3 scores: 78, 75, 0
After the injury-affected 0, Naughton, who is set to miss 2-3 weeks, should be the first to go but, after that, the decision is tough.
Finlayson and Doedee, who lost value last week, face a breakeven greater than their average in Round 9 but have posted two SuperCoach tons each this season.
While Murray’s breakeven of 62 is more achievable, he has failed to score more than 95 this season.
Murray (21 disposals per game at 69 per cent efficiency) has won more of the football than Finlayson (19 and 81 per cent) and Doedee (18 at 85 per cent) but his ball use has let him down at times.
Murray and Finlayson have tallied 30 clangers each, whereas Doedee only has 10 to his name.
But, in Murray’s defence, his role is all about taking the game on and he seems to attempt the difficult play more often than not.
Despite the mistakes, the Magpies like to get the ball in Murray’s hands and he should continue to see more of the footy than the other two.
At this stage, The Phantom will be keeping Doedee and Murray and trading Finlayson.
QUESTION MARK
Robbie Gray (Port) $561,700
Average: 116, Breakeven: 110
Even after his six-goal, 122-point performance in Showdown 44, be cautious with the Power star. Firstly the Round 11 bye is fast-approaching and, secondly, with the return of Tom Rockliff and Sam Powell-Pepper to the midfield, does Gray move back to a more permanent forward role, as he did in 2017? Keep a close eye on the situation.
Lachlan Keefe (GWS)
Average: 54, Breakeven: -33
His dual-position status is appealing but once Lobb is up-and-going and Patton eventually returns, is there a spot for him?
JUMP ON
Dayne Zorko (Bris) $459,000
The SuperCoach community wanted to see more after Zorko’s 164 points in Round 7 and we got our wish with the Brisbane star’s four-goal, 121-point performance at the weekend. A perfect value option for one of the final spots in your midfield.
GO EARLY
Ed Phillips (StK) $123,900, mid
After being drafted at pick No. 56 in 2016, the younger brother of in-form Collingwood wingman, Tom, Phillips made his first senior appearance for the Saints in Round 9. And he had an immediate impact, tallying 24 disposals, the most by a Saint on debut since 1983. The 20-year-old, who finished with 87 SuperCoach points, has been a ball magnet in the VFL, averaging 29 disposals, seven marks and four tackles in his four games prior to the senior call-up.
Given St Kilda’s struggles, Phillips should stay in the team for the foreseeable future after a terrific start.
With Giant Isaac Cumming (64 points) and Eagle Brayden Ainsworth (66) also impressing on debut in Round 8, going early on Phillips will help avoid a potential problem with too many bubble boys next week, while also funding an upgrade ahead of Round 9.
KEEP AN EYE ON
Taylor Adams (Coll) $465,000, mid
Average: 79, Breakeven: 115, Round 8 score: 120
After averaging 107 SuperCoach points per game in 2017 and 120 points in the final seven games of the season, the Collingwood midfielder has had a slow start to 2018. Adams posted scores of 69, 77 and 83 in the opening three rounds of the year before a hamstring injury saw him miss the following three matches.
Adams only scored 45 on return in Round 8 but was back to his best against the Cats, tallying 25 disposals, 11 contested possessions, 12 tackles and 120 points.
Keep an eye on his role when skipper Scott Pendlebury returns.
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