The one side which would defeat Victoria in AFL State of Origin
As the NRL takes over the MCG for State of Origin, we examine how the Big V, South Australia, Western Australia and the other states would fare today if AFL State of Origin returned.
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Can anyone topple the Vics? That’s the eternal question when hypothetical State of Origin sides are put together at this time of year, when the byes begin and Australian rules football fans begin looking longingly at the NRL’s State of Origin concept.
Australia’s native game is too large and covers too much of the country to boil down to two states (one of which has picked nearly half its players from overseas) clashing year-on-year, and clubs would never give up the power to allow even a Victorians vs. Allies clash, let alone multiple clashes, with potential for injuries, broadcast rights, and travel all logistical headaches too big to overcome.
So we’re going to dream.
This isn’t a one-off clash like the last State of Origin game in 1999. Oh no, we’re taking this thought experiment the whole way.
We’re setting up a full round robin carnival, with all six states (and both territories squeezed in) playing each other side once for a five-week extravaganza of football.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’re assuming every player across the AFL is fit and willing to line up for their state, and assuming the 22 named will be available across all five games.
For players like Lachie Schultz, who grew up in Moama but played with the Bendigo Pioneers, we’ve erred on picking them in the state they’re most likely to get a game.
We’ve also run a form guide on how we think each side would go over their five games.
VICTORIA
Some 60 per cent of draftees last year were from Victoria, with a pool of about 400 players to choose from. A midfield of Bontempelli, Merrett and Serong feeding the ball to Sam Walsh and Nick Dacios on the wings will win more clearances than it loses, even before you consider Max Gawn is tapping it down their throats. Toby Greene and Cody Weightman at the feet of two of the best tall forwards in the game would be a nightmare for anyone to stop.
X-Factor: Where do you start? In a line-up full of champions, Nick Daicos is the one who loves the biggest stage and the spotlight most of all, and State of Origin is another chance to shine. He may start on a wing but no coach would leave him there for a full game, and he’ll have his chances to stream out of the centre square.
Weaknesses: Someone like Kozzie Pickett getting off the chain at ground level is about the only threat to the Big V, with Suns guns Touk Miller and Matt Rowell coming off the bench, but Nick Larkey backing up Max Gawn could be present an opportunity for an opposition side when big Max is off the ground.
Results: 4-1
The home of footy might not automatically claim the crown in a State of Origin carnival. They technically still hold the crown after accounting for South Australia in 1999, but we think Western Australia takes the chocolates over them, despite a side full of seven premierships and more All-Australian blazers than you can poke a stick at. However, the four other sides are likely to be blown away.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Our AFL State of Origin team for South Australia.
Harris Petty returns to his home state and to the backline alongside Brennan Cox and Jack Lukosius, but the midfield is where this side really shines. Brodie Grundy is one of the best rucks in the AFL and with Connor Rozee, Lachie Neale and Jason Horne-Francis at his feet at the centre bounce, they will prove a battle for any midfield. The mosquito fleet up forward will prove a menace for any backline as long as the ball gets to ground, with Tyson Stengle, Kozzie Pickett and Izak Rankine having defenders waking up in a cold sweat.
X-Factor: Jason Horne-Francis is the key for the Croweaters. If he fires in the middle and proves why he’s one of the best young players in the competition then South Australia go a long way towards taking a major scalp in our hypothetical State of Origin tournament.
Weaknesses: The tall timber for South Australia is less strong than other states. While Grundy and Draper will more than hold their own in the ruck, key forwards could prove a more than Cox, Zerk-Thatcher and Petty can handle in defence, while Fogarty and Thilthorpe might not be able to bring the ball to ground effectively to feed the mosquito fleet.
Results: 3-2
We’ve got the Crows a step behind the Vics and Western Australia. That’s not to say they’re not a chance at getting either of them on their day, but the tall timber is probably just a little too far behind the others to take them down. However, they’ll more than likely account for the smaller and non-traditional footy states.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
This is it. This is the team which can topple the Vics. Tim English and Luke Jackson tag-teaming in the ruck, with a top-tier midfield of Cripps, Warner, Coniglio, Yeo and Kelly to feed it to. And they will be feeding it forward to a scary forward line containing Jesse Hogan, Aaron Naughton, Oscar Allen, with a frankly terrifying complement of Bobby Hill, Shai Bolton and Charlie Cameron at their feet. The backline has the best defender in the game in Sam Taylor and arguably the best one-two defensive punch in the game in Tom Barrass and Jeremy McGovern, depending on how you see Jake Lever and Steven May. Dual Brownlow-medallist Nat Fyfe would come on as the sub, but his form this season – while solid – doesn’t warrant removing one of the starting 22.
X-Factor: There’s plenty of X-Factor in this side, and any one of Bolton, Cameron or Hill could set the place alight, but after his last month Chad Warner has earned an X-Factor nomination. WA will need to win the midfield battle for their forwards to get into the game, and how Warner performs will go a long way to determining if the Sandgropers get up.
Weaknesses: It’s a tall and injury-prone backline. Both McGoverns have long injury histories and five of the defenders are key position size, and while Nic Martin has been racking up the pill off half-back, he hasn’t actually done much defending for the Dons this season.
Results: 5-0
Unbeaten. Five and 0. Top of the footy world. That’s our prediction for the Sandgropers, in no small part due to the form of Patrick Cripps and resurgence of Elliot Yeo giving them enough oomph in the middle to let their forward line shine. It’d be a thriller, and no sure thing, but we think they’d do it.
NSW/ACT
This isn’t a team which is as weak as you’d expect. It’s certainly not got the youngest of forward lines with Broken Hill’s Taylor Walker and Finley’s Tom Hawkins, but on their day they can kick as big a bag as the rest of them, and with 2024 Brownlow Medal favourite Isaac Heeney in the side, along with young guns Errol Gulden, Tom Green, Callum Mills and Nick Blakey, there’s certainly firepower to be found, while Jack Buckley is an underrated gem.
X-Factor: He can play as a running half-back and, as the Blues have recently discovered, he can be a threat in front of goal. Albury-raised Zac Williams has the spark which could drive this team to an upset win over one of the other states.
Weaknesses: The depth simply isn’t there. While the Victorians have All-Australians coming off the bench, Matt Kennedy and Nick Murray aren’t of that calibre despite being good, honest footballers. Luke Bruest, Dane Rampe, Walker, Taylor and Jarrod Witts are all slightly long in the tooth which may cause issues.
Results: 1-4
The NSW/ACT side should account for a young Tasmanian side but won’t fire too many shots on the national stage. There’s some absolutely top-tier talent in the side, but too many passengers likely leave them facing a few blowouts.
QUEENSLAND/NT
This is a backline which wouldn’t look out of place standing alongside defensive 50s from WA or Victoria. Steven May, Harris Andrews and Aliir Aliir complement each other perfectly, while a fit Keidean Coleman and Daniel Rioli off each flank would be a sight to behold. Eric Hipwood and Jed Walter could lead this forward line for some time, while more Riolis – Willie and Maurice Jr – make this forward line especially exciting alongside Alwyn Davey Jr coming off the bench.
X-Factor: Keidean Coleman would have been leading the Norm Smith votes at half time of the grand final last year, and after half a year out of the game we’re desperate to see him running off half-back. His creative kicking and control of the play would be the reason this Top End side might be able to compete with the southerners.
Weaknesses: The midfield is the weak point of this side. Even assuming this side is played in the few weeks of the year in which Brayden Pruess is fit, if you’re lining up Zac Bailey, Brandan Parfitt and Ben Keays against the Bont, Nick Daicos and Zach Merrett, I know which side I’m backing in to get the centre clearance.
Results: 2-3
The Top End will prove strong enough for NSW/ACT and Tasmania, but are at-risk of being blown out of the water by the big three states’ firepower.
TASMANIA
If only we could fast-forward 15 years. The Apple Isle is full of talent, and with the announcement the Devils are coming there’ll be plenty of more talent coming through. It’s a young side but it’s an exciting sign of things to come, and between this and the strength of the Queensland Academies could be cause for queries over splitting the Under 18 National Championships in years to come. Ultimately though, there are slightly too many players making up the numbers, even if Nankervis, Pearce, and Jones can match it with the best on their day.
X-Factor: He’s yet to debut for St Kilda, but that’s exactly why superboot Arie Schoenmaker could be the Tasmanians’ secret weapon. Tipped as the longest – and one of the best – kicks in the 2023 draft, Schoenmaker could do plenty of damage on a wing and send goals through at post-height from 55 or 60 metres out.
Weaknesses: This is a really young and inexperienced side. There’s no denying the talent and excitement lining up for Tasmania, with Ryley Sanders and Colby McKercher at the first bounce, but it’s a side with two players who haven’t debuted at senior level and plenty of others who aren’t first-choice at their AFL clubs.
Results: 0-5
Sadly, a state-based Tassie side won’t be winning any games at our National Championships, but give it another 10 years and we’d be keen to see how the Apple Isle mixes with the best.
Originally published as The one side which would defeat Victoria in AFL State of Origin
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