The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over St Kilda’s current group, its future and everything in between
St Kilda has vast scope to hit the free agency market in the future – but when is the right time? See exactly where the Saints’ list is at after 2023’s surprise finals run.
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In the hour after St Kilda’s season came to a grinding halt against the Giants, Ross Lyon spoke of savage finals lessons and his determination to avoid a quick fix in his second coming at Moorabbin.
Lyon labelled it a “great finals audit” on a day where GWS showcased a brilliant defence (elite stoppers Sam Taylor and Connor Idun) with rebound the Saints couldn’t stop (Lachie Ash, Lachie Whitfield) and a star-studded forward line full of menacing smalls and role-playing forwards.
Even as the St Kilda midfield broke even in pure numbers (clearances, contested possession), the class of the GWS onball unit shone out as Josh Kelly and Finn Callaghan hit the scoreboard (three total goals) and Tom Green helped himself to 35 touches.
St Kilda must bridge the gap on talent against GWS to be a top-four contender in coming seasons.
And, yet, as much as it was a sobering reality check, for Lyon the message was to use GWS as a template – build slowly, back in the draft, eschew hasty or instant remedies.
As Gillon McLachlan told him, “Don’t try and build it in 12 months, build it over the longer term”.
So the Saints’ direction is clear – back in the kids, build an elite development structure, coach them well, don’t fix all the issues in one off-season by wasting valuable cap space.
TRADE PERIOD
Ratings: 7/10
Ross Lyon would have piggybacked Jade Gresham to the Hangar if it helped secure an end-of-first-round compensation selection.
In the end, a week of negotiations delivered St Kilda that pick and a critical second first-round selection.
For a club keen to get back into the draft, it was one of the steals of the entire period.
From there, the Saints effectively turned injury-prone Nick Coffield into Paddy Dow, moving on a player with 52 games in six years for the inside midfielder they believe has the explosive element their midfield so desperately needs.
Fremantle’s Liam Henry arrived for a future second-rounder and, while he missed the Dockers’ top 10 in the best-and-fairest, he is a 22-year-old former top 10 pick who has only just scratched the surface of his potential.
And, while the Saints off-loaded Jack Billings (and some of his salary), they hope to use the future Demons third-rounder in a deep 2024 draft and genuinely felt he deserved a second chance after a decade at the club.
Lyon and list boss Steve Silvagni did what they promised – brought in players in the right demographic, didn’t swing for the fences, and arguably won out of every one of those deals.
LIST HOLES
Let’s start with the overwhelming positives.
St Kilda has one of footy’s most dominant ruckmen (Rowan Marshall), a key forward to build a side around (Max King), a miserly lockdown defender (Cal Wilkie), a match-winning elite kick (Jack Sinclair) and a bunch of kids who could be A graders.
Mitch Owens, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Mattaes Phillipou have All Australian upside, while Anthony Caminiti is a raw, exciting colt.
But the Saints do have a long list of players who turn 28 next year – or are already there – so can they maintain the rage long enough to open a flag window when the kids are peaking in 2026 onwards?
Those turning 28 in the next year include Dougal Howard, Cal Wilkie, Jack Steele, with Sinclair 29 in February, Tim Membrey 30 in May and Brad Hill 31 in July.
Every St Kilda fan knows this midfield needs polish and speed.
Of the leading clearance winners, Brad Crouch kicked at 55 per cent (with 285 metres gained per game), Steele went at 61 per cent (281 metres gained), Seb Ross 50 per cent (336 metres gained) and Hunter Clark 58 per cent (240 metres gained).
It is why Henry will spend some of his time over summer training as an inside mid, even though the plan is for Sinclair (73 per cent efficiency) to play a similar blend of half back and midfield in 2024.
DRAFT STRATEGY
St Kilda has two first-rounders for the first time in six years (with picks 13, 21 and 40) and is bullish about the draft, believing that, while the players are still showing some Covid lag from the 2020-21 years, it only increases the opportunity with canny selections.
The club has a very specific premiership vision that includes repeated and deep trips to the draft in coming seasons.
Given a reasonable balance of talls and smalls, Silvagni and Graeme Allan can commit to the cliche – best available.
There is still a decision to come on injury-prone defender Dan McKenzie, who could be delisted, re-signed or given the chance as a train-on for a summer rookie spot.
UNDER THE PUMP
Jack Steele played 21 games and endured an early-season broken collarbone and a grumbly achilles, but finished ninth in the best-and-fairest.
Only he knows how much his body impacted him, but in a thin St Kilda midfield the dual best-and-fairest winner must affect the course of matches.
His final was brilliant – 38 touches, eight clearances.
For St Kilda to improve, he needs to lead this midfield pack.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Owens has played 30 games, Caminiti 18, Wanganeen-Milera 41, Marcus Windhager 37. All of them need to double those games tallies before a flag window opens.
There are just too many excellent teams – Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane – to sneak a flag.
AFL PLAYER RATINGS FOR 2024 AND A 2025 BOLTER
Sinclair (8th), Marshall (14th), Steele (62nd), Wood (68th), Wilkie (84th), Owens (103rd), Crouch (108th).
Wanganeen-Milera was ranked 165th. Watch his final again (23 touches, 524 metres gained). He is smart and relentless and backs himself to execute risky kicks that set up the Saints attacking thrusts. A player who has Corey Enright as a coach and mentor can one day, in the not-too-distant future, be the most dangerous and damaging half back in the game.
CAP SPACE FOR 2025
Max King will soon be a million dollar-plus player, Steele is well paid Jack Sinclair finally got his right whack, locked away to 2027 in July this year.
But St Kilda has vast scope to hit the free agency market next year or land a big fish in the trade space if the right opportunity presents.
Last year, it would have had to move on Hunter Clark if Jordan De Goey arrived for cap space, but the CBA rise means St Kilda is sitting pretty.
Lucrative deals for Zak Jones, Dan Hannebery, Coffield and BIllings are in the rear view mirror. It is launch mode …. when the time is right.
2024 TRADE TARGETS
Ben King will re-sign at the Suns, so the romance of him uniting with brother Max won’t happen.
A Cam Zurhaar type – 40 goals, 80 tackles, relentless aggression – would appeal to play alongside King, Caminiti, Cooper Sharman and the kids in Owens and Phillipou. He is a 2024 free agent.
Marshall thrives on the workload but with Jack Hayes, Tom Campbell and youngster Max Heath as his back-ups the Saints are thin on rucks.
Gold Coast’s Ned Moyle, out of contract next year, would be a perfect successor but might believe he can take over from Jarrod Witts before academy prospect Ethan Read emerges.
Imagine slotting Changkuoth Jiath into half back to release Sinclair into the midfield, but he will surely re-sign early in the year at the Hawks.
TRADE BAIT
Dougal Howard, Tim Membrey and Josh Battle are the trio of talls out of contract, with Battle a free agent, Howard out of contract after some 2023 trade whispers and Membrey turning 30 with a degenerative knee issue.
Battle is a key player, hugely popular off the field and as a cultural driver, and the priority target to lock away early.
Sharman and Wood will also need to be secured, but there is unlikely to be a Jade Gresham-style contract conundrum for the Saints.
Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over St Kilda’s current group, its future and everything in between
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