The dirty AFL secret no one wants to admit as league faces worst nightmare

The AFL is facing a nightmare scenario for the 2024 finals series with a dirty little secret festering away below the surface.

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The AFL is facing arguably its worst nightmare throughout the 2024 finals series with a dirty little secret festering away below the surface.

Now not in any lifetime will those in the front office ever admit it, but the league want nothing more than for the top eight to be dominated by Victorian powerhouses.

Before we run the microscope over the finals series, let’s unpack this one.

The AFL is a business and like any business the entire goal is to maximise their own bottom line and one of the best ways for them to achieve this is to have the biggest games of the year at the biggest stadium in the country.

Unfortunately in 2024 the scenario couldn’t be any more dire for the league with only three out of nine finals set to take place at the home of football, the MCG.

That is the lowest number of finals in Melbourne for 18 years, not since the 2006 finals have less games been played in Victoria.

Chad Warner and the Swans have been a dominant force in 2024. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

While it might not sound that bad for the national interest in the competition, the outcome for the AFL couldn’t be any worse for their bottom line.

With only three games at the MCG the total number of ticket sales will be significantly below what the league would have been hoping to achieve.

If you take every venue expected to host a final throughout this year’s finals series, the total number of attendees sits at around 561,000 fans.

Let’s compare that figure to the last two finals series shall we?

In the 2023 and 2022 finals series we saw six games played at the MCG each year, which means two thirds of the matches could have pulled a bigger attendance than what we might see this year.

It’s no shock then as to why the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn were given the prime time slot on Friday night during the opening week of the finals despite finishing sixth and seventh on the ladder.

Jordan De Goey and the Magpies missed out on finals. Picture: Mark Stewart

Charlie Cameron and the Lions will host a home final in Brisbane. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

The league did everything within their powers to maximise their profitability in what is a financially dire finals series.

Now I’m not saying this to rubbish teams from outside of Victoria, cards on the table I’d love to see an all-Sydney final unfold on the last Saturday in September.

But the AFL were staring down the barrel of one of their dream situations at the end of round 15 when three Victorian powerhouse clubs occupied 75 per cent of the top four.

Sadly Essendon did what they always do, Collingwood’s premiership hungover hit like a tonne of bricks in the latter stages of the season and Carlton hung on desperately like Sylvester Stallone in Cliffhanger.

If we’re being brutally honest, the AFL’s dream scenario would be a ladder at the end of the home and away season to mirror that of the membership tally.

The top eight in that situation would see seven Victorian clubs competing in September with the only outlier being the West Coast Eagles who sit marginally behind Collingwood in second place.

Again let’s run that hypothetical of every game drawing the maximum attendance and the total number could reach as high as 820,000.

That’s an outrageous difference of 260,000 fans in attendance compared to what we’ll see in 2024.

While we’re never likely to see a situation like that play out, if the opportunity ever presented itself to set the final eight in that order, best believe the league would take it with both hands.

With the biggest fan bases across the competition, it’s hard to argue that the league is stronger than when Victorian powerhouses are sitting atop the AFL ladder.

But will the AFL ever admit to that? Absolutely no chance. It’s the dirty little secret they’ll take to the grave.

Originally published as The dirty AFL secret no one wants to admit as league faces worst nightmare