Why the Western Bulldogs are genuine premiership contenders in 2020
It’s been well documented the Western Bulldogs will go into the 2020 season with the second-best list. Jon Ralph delves into the data to find out why, and uncovers a surprise detail about promising ruckman Tim English.
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The Western Bulldogs have the second-best list in the AFL and a young ruck prodigy who will eventually develop into the next Brodie Grundy.
That is the heady prediction from Champion Data’s 18-team list analysis as part of its 2020 AFL Prospectus.
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Richmond remains the most dominant force in football according to Champion Data — the best overall list with the game’s leading defence, second-best group of forwards and seventh-best midfield.
But the much-hyped Western Bulldogs not only have a list assessed as the second-best, they have significant scope for improvement.
Champion Data rates young ruckman Tim English on track to become a ruckman of the calibre of dual All-Australian Grundy.
His ball-winning ability and around-the-ground coverage shone in 20 games last year but he still officially ranks below average as a player after only 382 hit-outs for the Dogs in 2020.
Champion Data ranks Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel and Matthew Suckling as elite, with another nine above-average players — Josh Dunkley, Bailey Smith, Jason Johannisen, Patrick Lipinski, Sam Lloyd, Toby McLean, Hayden Crozier, Tom Liberatore and Alex Keath.
Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne said even the Dogs’ weaknesses could be quickly addressed this season.
“I still think their weakness is the key defender post,” Hoyne said.
“They conceded the third-most goals to key forwards last year and everyone will say (ex-Adelaide defender) Alex Keath is that man but he’s more of an interceptor than a lockdown defender. If Jackson Trengove or Zaine Cordy can perform that role week-in and week-out they have pretty much got everything else covered.
“English is the spitting image of Grundy from a numbers point of view at the same stage of their careers. If you are a Bulldogs supporter you are pretty excited.”
Collingwood is rated the league’s third-best list, with Greater Western Sydney and West Coast rounding out the top five.
Gold Coast is rated the weakest list — with the worst defence and worst forward group. Carlton was rated the 17th-best given a second-worst defence and worst midfield group.
In a controversial move Geelong’s defence is statistically ranked the third-worst given an even crop that does not rack up huge ranking points.
In the AFL Prospectus, Champion Data acknowledged Geelong’s defence has been the stingiest since 2009.
“Harry Taylor rates above average on our list, but the rest rate average or below average,” the book stated.
“They are not great attacking or intercepting defenders so the individual players find it difficult to generate rating points. These rating points land with Geelong’s midfield and wingers pushing back to help generate the ball movement out of defence.”
Originally published as Why the Western Bulldogs are genuine premiership contenders in 2020