The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals
RICHMOND’S trademark pressure game has plunged dramatically in the most alarming drop of several key performance indicators entering September. Can they turn it around in the finals?
RICHMOND’S trademark pressure game has plunged dramatically in the most alarming of several vulnerabilities entering September.
Damien Hardwick said opposition styles had contributed to the recent low-pressure games as he attempts to guide the Tigers to back-to-back flags for the first time since Tommy Hafey’s 1973-74 team.
Since Round 17 Richmond is ranked 14th for pressure — above only Carlton, St Kilda, Gold Coast and North Melbourne and below Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and Fremantle.
Last year they were ranked No.2 for pressure on the cusp of finals.
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“Is it a concern? Yes and no,” Hardwick said.
“Our pressure numbers have been down but we’ve been winning the ball back anyway.
“We’ve just got to continue to challenge our players to get better at that area.”
The Herald Sun can reveal the Tigers’ form over the past seven weeks does not stack up with their pre-finals form last year.
The Tigers are down a goal from forward-half turnovers this year and rank last for clearances.
While Richmond’s percentage sits at a healthy 132 from the past seven weeks, that is also well down from last season’s 152.
Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson attributed his qualifying final opponent’s red flags to a possible dip in motivation.
“Last year Adelaide finished on top and Richmond was always on the chase for (top four), so their seasons have been quite different,” Clarkson said.
“(Hardwick) stated it’s actually hard to get the boys up and going when we’ve already achieved what we wanted to out of the home-and-away series — and that’s to qualify on top.
“I dare say for the last six or eight weeks they’ve felt like they were certain to make top four.
“Needless to say, we hope they stay in a little bit of a lull over the next couple of weeks.”
Only two of the past 10 minor premiers have gone on to win the Grand Final and there are shades of Collingwood 2011 about the Tigers.
The Magpies won the 2010 premiership and finished on top of the ladder
in 2011 before trailing off and losing the Grand Final.
Hardwick appeared frustrated in the MCG rooms following Saturday’s third narrow win in four weeks.
“You sort of hope the players understand the importance,” Hardwick said.
“But the reality is it was a dead rubber and we probably played a bit like that. If we play like that (against Hawthorn) we’ll get beaten, no doubt.”
The Tigers’ biggest issue in the first 16 weeks of 2017 was converting inside 50s to scores.
They fixed that up in the final two months, ranking sixth, but have dropped back to 12th this year.
While few tipped the Tigers to win last year’s premiership 12 months ago, they entered September as the hidden force and were flying.
This year the question is whether the Tigers can flick the switch next Thursday night, although Hardwick’s territory game is still strong.
Since Round 17 the Tigers rank No.1 for time in forward half, inside 50m differential and turnovers created in their forward half.
Richmond has long prioritised other areas over clearances.
While the Tigers ranked sixth for clearances in 2017, the Tigers were still No.1 for points differential from clearances last year.
This year they are ranked 18th for clearances and 11th for points differential.
Clarkson said he would instruct his forwards to bring the ball to ground to stop intercept kings Alex Rance, Nick Vlastuin, David Astbury and Dylan Grimes picking off their entries.
Originally published as The stats that show Richmond is vulnerable in the finals