Why Port Adelaide’s Connor Rozee should be AFL Rising Star favourite

Connor Rozee’s numbers point to him becoming Port Adelaide’s third AFL Rising Star winner.

HIGH FLYER: Port Adelaide’s Connor Rozee takes a strong mark over West Coast captain Shannon Hurn in the Power’s round five win in Perth. Picture: RICHARD WAINWRIGHT (AAP).

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IT’S the data that should turn the AFL Rising Star debate on its head.

While Carlton No. 1 draft pick Sam Walsh is the white-hot favourite to win this year’s best young player award in what has become a two-horse race with Port Adelaide No. 5 selection Connor Rozee, exclusive Champion Data analysis indicates betting agencies have the market wrong.

After nine rounds, midfield ball magnet Walsh is listed at a very short $1.45 with Ladbrokes.

Dynamic forward Rozee, who Power great Warren Tredrea says is the best first-year player he has seen walk through the AFL doors at Port, is clear second favourite at $7.50.

From there it is daylight, with Richmond’s Sydney Stack next in the market at $17.

But Champion Data has highlighted just how effective 19-year-old Rozee has been in his rookie season.

In its relative ratings by position, Rozee is the clear clubhouse leader approaching the midway point of the season.

In a “weight for age’’ system that factors in position, age and expected output, Rozee — listed as a general forward — has a +74 per cent rating.

Stack, a general defender, comes in second in Champion’s ratings at +66 per cent.

Walsh, listed as a wingman, is well back in third place at +42 per cent.

This system is used to judge a player's true value to his team.

And it paints Rozee in a great light as the athletic machine attempts to become the third Power player to win the Rising Star, behind Michael Wilson (1997) and Danyle Pearce (2006).

In three of the past four years, the contender with the leading relative rating percentage has been crowned Rising Star winner — Melbourne’s Jesse Hogan in 2015, Sydney’s Callum Mills in 2016 and Essendon’s Andrew McGrath in 2017.

Last year's winner, Collingwood’s Jaidyn Stephenson, ranked third in ratings behind Richmond’s Jack Higgins and the Western Bulldogs’ Aaron Naughton.

A product of SANFL club North Adelaide and a league premiership player last year, Croweater Rozee is averaging 16.3 disposals, including 8.1 contested, 6.1 score involvements, 1.4 goals, 42.9 pressure points and 4.6 tackles — all ranked as elite or above average for a general forward.

Victorian Walsh is averaging 24.2 disposals, including 10 contested, 4.8 score involvements, 0.3 goals, 43.9 pressure points and 2.8 tackles.

He is rated as below average for his position in goals and average for score involvements and tackles.

Again, it’s advantage Rozee.

Power premiership captain Tredrea, who has kicked more goals than any other Power player, with 549 in 255 games from 1997-2010, said Rozee is the best first-year AFL player he has

seen at the club.

“He’s had the biggest influence of anyone in their first year of AFL that I can remember at Port,’’ Tredrea said.

“Ollie Wines had a big influence early on (in 2013) and Wilson won the Rising Star but in terms of just delivering for the team, no-one has been better than Rozee.

“There have been times where he’s carried the senior players at Port, bar (former skipper) Travis Boak.

“He kicked a bag of five against Brisbane in round three when he singelhandedly nearly won his team the game.

“He just doesn’t fumble and his decision making under pressure is elite. He just picks the right option and has awareness that most others don’t have.

“A lot of blokes win heaps of the footy but waste it. Every time Rozee gets it he seems to have time and makes something positive happen. He’s a gun.’’

RELATIVELY SPEAKING

Connor Rozee has Sam Walsh covered in Champion Data’s relative ratings

2018 Draftees Club Position Relative Rating

Connor Rozee Port Gen Fwd +74%

Sydney Stack Rich Gen Def +66%

Sam Walsh Carl Wing +42%

Jack Ross Rich Mid +36%

Bailey Smith WB Mid-Fwd +23%