Champion Data reveals which teams are likely to make the eight — and it is good news for Crows and Power
It may seem like a four-horse race for the last two finals spots, but Champion Data predicts the Power and Crows are in with a good shot.
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It may seem like a four-horse race for the last two finals spots but Port Adelaide has a 70 per cent chance of making the top eight and Adelaide a 50 per cent chance.
According to Champion Data, the official statistician of the AFL, the Power, Essendon and the Crows are the teams within a real shout of making the eight. The Western Bulldogs are considered to have just a 15 per cent chance of making the finals. Hawthorn, despite its big win over GWS in the snow in Canberra on Friday, has just a five per cent chance of finishing in the eight.
Champion Data makes its predictions by taking into account each team’s upcoming fixture and current injury list to predict the final ladder by simulating each match tens of thousands of times.
Of all the contenders, it now has the Power with the strongest chance of making the finals, at 70 per cent. If Port beats North Melbourne in Melbourne on Saturday night, this will surge to 90 per cent but if the Power loses, its likelihood will fall to 40 per cent.
Port has propelled itself into the eight on percentage after winning its first consecutive games since rounds 5 and 6, when Port backed up its big win over Essendon with victory over Sydney on Saturday.
Results elsewhere, such as the Crows losing to West Coast in Perth, and Fremantle going down to St Kilda, have only boosted the Power’s finals chances. But assistant coach Brett Montgomery said on Monday the focus at Alberton was firmly on Port, not how other finals rivals were faring.
“I say what’s coming together quite nicely is that we are able to find that balance in our team; we’ve found a good fit and good combinations in all areas of the ground,” he said.
“I don’t think we look too closely at other teams. Being a team that has gone win/loss win/loss for a while, we have our own things to worry about.
“But I think we have found that balance in our game over the last fortnight … we are really starting to come to terms with how much risk we need to take. It’s all eyes on us at the moment.”
Despite big losses in its last two games, Essendon is still considered a 60 per cent chance of making finals. The Bombers could watch this probability rise to 85 per cent if they can get the job done against Fremantle in Perth.
But lose for a third straight week and they will fall to 30 per cent. Essendon’s poor form in recent weeks has kept the door open for the Crows, and despite sitting ninth, they could increase their finals probability to 65 per cent if they beats Collingwood at Adelaide Oval on Saturday.
If the Crows lose, their projection falls to 25 per cent.
Veteran ruckman Sam Jacobs said on Monday the reality of the ninth-placed Crows was sinking in.
“At this time of year, it obviously heightens, but we’re well aware of where we sit (on the ladder),” he said.
“ … things are still in our control, and if we win the next two games, we’re going to put ourselves in a really strong position to be able to play finals. Even though we didn’t get the result we wanted, we’re still not content with losing by 10 points but it gives us a good platform to be able to get going for Collingwood and the Bulldogs in the next two weeks.”