Wreck It Ralph: 11 questions that will define Simon Goodwin’s future at Melbourne
2025 might be a slow march toward the inevitable for Simon Goodwin and the Demons. Where do they go from here and who could be on the chopping block to accelerate the rebuild?
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Simon Goodwin might only have a matter of weeks to save his coaching career.
As Luke Beveridge has found this season, a drought-breaking premiership doesn’t guarantee much in terms of tenure in the AFL.
If the Demons cannot arrest this slump, the rest of the season might be a slow march towards the inevitable for Goodwin.
What he does next - and the decisions he makes - will define his future at the club.
The last time Melbourne endured successive arse-kickings against rival outfits, Goodwin blinked.
As the Demons searched valiantly for a new identity away from the old “contest and defence” philosophy that won them the 2021 flag, they flew north to Alice Springs.
There in one of footy’s biggest 2024 beat-downs, the Demons coughed up 68 inside 50s to lose to Fremantle by 92 points.
A week later they lost to Collingwood by 38 points on Kings Birthday - as Christian Petracca’s season ended in disaster - and the Demons pulled the rip cord on a new more expansive run-and-gun game plan.
They totally abandoned their new style and went back to something contest and defence, ending up stuck totally in between without an identity.
A summer of love and a search for a new game plan have resulted in more cuddles, more honesty and a strong fighting loss to GWS.
But after a pair of losses to last year’s 17th-placed side North Melbourne and 13th-placed side Gold Coast, the Demons are at the crossroad again.
11 QUESTIONS THAT WILL DEFINE MELBOURNE’S FUTURE UNDER SIMON GOODWIN
1. WHAT IS THE BRAND?
Three weeks into the season, Goodwin would say the Demons are trying to play a more progressive up-tempo game style that matches the modern trends.
It worked against GWS despite a centre square battering - high energy, swift ball movement, hitting up targets with precise disposal inside 50 instead of high, long bombs.
Yet after three weeks of football, the Demons rank 17th in points for and 15th in points against.
Even after Simon Goodwin defended the amount of shots the Demons got from only 40 inside 50s against, the Demons still rank 16th for scores per inside 50.
Some of that is down to accuracy - the Demons are a clear last after a putrid 28.28 and 23 total misses this year.
Christian Petracca has 4.3 this year and four total misses, sharpshooter Bailey Fritsch has 1.4 and four total misses, Max Gawn has had five shots for 0.3 and two misses and Harry Sharp has 3.2 and two total misses.
So not one part of the new brand is holding up.
He has no alternative to hope stronger midfield output can allow the defence some dirty ball to defend and better midfield connection.
He cannot go back on his game plan again.
2. DOES GOODWIN HAVE THE TOOLS TO CHANGE THE MIDFIELD MIX?
In recent years Max Gawn has been footy’s best ruckman, Jack Viney arguably one of the toughest players, Christian Petracca the most explosive mid-forward, Clayton Oliver the best extractor.
That quartet have had their pants pulled down by GWS, North Melbourne and Gold Coast.
That is the most worrying aspect for Goodwin, who exposed Harvey Langford for his first full game and did lose Trent Rivers to the backline when Xavier Lindsay went down with a medial ligament sprain.
Kysaiah Pickett will be reintroduced to the mix against Geelong but Goodwin has no alternative this week but to back that quartet.
In back-to-back weeks the Demons have conceded 43 points from centre bounce to the Roos then 26 points to Gold Coast.
Clubs concede an average of 12 points per game so that is an indictment on the Demons.
Clearances are just as bad - minus 12 in round 1, minus 12 against North Melbourne, minus 16 against the Suns in what was their fifth-worst return in the past five years.
At centre bounce the plus minus this year is minus 10 clearances for Gawn, minus 10 for Viney, minus eight for Petracca, minus six for Oliver.
The only positive heading into the Geelong clash is the Cats midfield is just going based on the past two weeks.
But careers at Melbourne - including some of those midfield stars - depend on them finding form right now.
3. WOULD A MINI-REBUILD GIVE MELBOURNE A CHANCE TO CONTEND AGAIN WHILE GAWN, MAY AND LEVER REMAIN IN THE PREMIERSHIP BUILD?
If the Demons chose to rebuild on the run it would be unlikely Goodwin would be the man in charge to spearhead the resistance.
It would also be unlikely the Demons could again contend within the space of 2-3 years even if they traded off two or three stars given the age profile of their best players.
No one doubts the talent of the kids - Caleb Windsor, Langford, Lindsay, Van Rooyen, Chandler, Bowey, Rivers, Judd McVee, Matthew Jefferson, Koltyn Tholstrup.
But if the Demons took some medicine - trading Oliver and Pickett for instance - by the time they bounce again the top-end would have aged out.
Max Gawn is 34 in December, Steven May will be 34 by next season, Jack Viney is 32 next month, Christian Petracca is already 29.
So the Demons are stuck in the middle - in a list demographic where they should be contending yet too old for a two-year rebuild.
If they trade two of their best players, the era is likely over.
4. WHAT WOULD THE DEMONS ACTUALLY GET IF THEY MOVED ON CLAYTON OLIVER?
Clubs can still thrive when they move on their stars.
But the problem for Melbourne is they would only get cents on the dollar for Oliver given his vast contract which rises from its $1.3 million and goes much higher until 2030.
Carlton doesn’t need another inside mid, Geelong desperately does but might offer one first-rounder at best.
Adelaide, which has interest, has fixed its midfield.
Hawthorn doesn’t need him, St Kilda might but is desperately trying to hang onto its draft collateral in coming years.
His numbers this year have still been huge - an average of 30.7 touches, 15 contested possessions, 7.3 clearances, 4.3 tackles.
But his two-way running is an issue, his clangers have been costly and as mentioned the midfield as a collective has been bashed about.
So if the Demons do trade Oliver, they either pay some of his salary until 2030 to get a decent draft exchange, or they trade him for a later pick but get his salary off their books.
Neither is very palatable so it is up to Goodwin and Oliver to find a way to tidy up his turnovers and enhance his strengths.
5. CAN KOZZIE PICKETT SAVE MELBOURNE’S SEASON?
The Pickett that has dominated Melbourne intraclub games is exactly the kind of mid-forward Goodwin needs quick smart.
Pickett has never been an elite centre square mid even in his cameos in the midfield but the player we saw this season is more than capable.
He gives the centre square setup a completely different look and can basically swap on and off the ball with Petracca.
If Melbourne turns its season around with a win against Geelong, it will be Pickett at the heart of it.
6. BUT IS THERE ANY CHANCE HE WILL STILL BE AT MELBOURNE NEXT YEAR?
A trade request seems inevitable for Pickett even as the Dockers rule out any prospect of Luke Jackson returning to Victoria.
President Brad Green has set the market at three first-round picks, which GWS didn’t even get for Jeremy Cameron so it won’t be happening for Pickett.
But if the trade request does come the Demons need to maximise their return.
The first move would be making public they would trade him to any of the four clubs in South Australia or West Australia given he has at times considered both those states as future destinations.
As the Western Bulldogs found when trading Bailey Smith, it is impossible to start a bidding war with a single club.
Melbourne doesn’t have a great 2025 draft hand - they have traded their first-rounder to Essendon, and they swapped third-rounders with Brisbane so their pick in that round might be ten picks worse than they hoped.
So they need to do everything in their power to secure multiple first-rounders from a club like Fremantle to thicken that draft hand.
7. CAN MAX GAWN BOUNCE BACK HARD STARTING THIS WEEK?
GMHBA Stadium is the scene of Gawn’s breakout career game and that magical moment where he kicked the last goal in round 23, 2021 in a four-point victory en route to the Grand Final victory.
He has had more excuses than most for his form given the off-field distractions, but the fact remains his first three weeks have been poor.
On the weekend Jarrod Witts was the 12th-ranked player on the ground and Gawn the 30th ranked.
He was well beaten by Tristan Xerri the previous week.
He has had a total of two clearances in the past fortnight and he would not be in the top five rucks in the comp on early-season form as Tristan Xerri, Tom De Koning, Lloyd Meek, Darcy Cameron and co, hit the ground running.
It seems wildly unfair to ask a 33-year-old premiership ruckman and seven-time All Australian to lift again but that is Melbourne’s fate.
8. IS JACOB VAN ROOYEN THE SOLUTION AS MELBOURNE’S NO.1 FORWARD?
Right now the answer is a hard no.
He has had two seasons of solid progress playing as a complimentary part in the forward line (30 goals last year) but he has been trounced playing on footy’s best defenders.
At 193cm, the cult hero gives away 15cm compared to a player like 208cm beast Sam Darcy and it means he is still limited when the delivery inside 50 is askew.
He has just four total marks for the season - the fourth-worst of all key forwards to play two or more games.
He has played on Sam Taylor, Aidan Corr (with Charlie Comben intercepting at will) and then Sam Collins but he hasn’t been able to get separation and hasn’t been able to mark the ball.
When Van Rooyen, Matthew Jefferson and crash-and-bash expert Aidan Johnson all played together in round 1 the forward line was more functional.
But if he is to be the answer it is as a part of this forward line, not the dominant key forward.
9. WHERE IS CHRISTIAN SALEM’S CAREER AT?
Salem’s key strength is his ball use and playing as a defender all year he just hasn’t hurt opponents.
In round 1 he was the 24th-rated player on the ground, against the Roos he bounced (the seventh-best player) and then against Gold Coast he was the 35th best player.
From a rating points perspective 31 players were ahead of him generating impact from ball use.
At his best he bites off challenging kicks through the corridor but in a side lacking half back run and adventure (Windsor’s return will help this week) he isn’t getting it done by foot.
10. WHO WOULD ACTUALLY MAKE A CALL ON GOODWIN’S FUTURE IF THE WINLESS STREAK CONTINUES?
Brad Green has done a spectacular job in taking over from Kate Roffey as a circuit-breaker whose presence allowed the club to settle its long-running law suit with former president Glen Bartlett.
He will remain on the board when Steven Smith returns from his long-planned trip to Europe.
But the club is still a month away from appointing a new chief executive in April.
It would be a particularly unenviable task for a new CEO to have to make a decision on Goodwin’s future only months into the new role.
Smith will have his fingerprints over every decision made from here on in, but he had hoped to enjoy a northern hemisphere sabbatical rather than sweat on every Demons result.
Could Goodwin survive another year of regression after a flag, two straight sets exits, a 14th finish and then another poor year?
Surely there are too many quality candidates available for them to back him in again given the need for fresh ideas, fresh tactics, and fresh hope for the supporter base.
11. CAN YOU PUT BACK TOGETHER A BROKEN SPIRIT IN A MATTER OF DAYS?
Max Gawn lamented how the Suns “probably broke our spirit” on Saturday and paid particular attention to the club’s leaders and their poor body language.
Clearly he was talking about the likes of Steven May (who dropped marks and postured for free kicks) and Clayton Oliver (who gave away a critical 50m penalty by kicking the ball off the ground after a free kick).
May was returning from a throat issue but he lost all three of his one on one contests cold and the Demons lost six of 10 one-on-one contests.
May has always played with his heart on his sleeve and Jake Lever (will return) this week.
But like his good mate Tom Lynch he moved south for a flag.
There will be dark days like Saturday where he has to defend 68 inside 50s but with a contract for 2026 he needs to inspire his backline colleagues, not be part of the problem.
RALPHY’S WEEKEND OBSERVATIONS
1. FEEL-GOOD VIBES SURROUND THE BULLDOGS
There are the normal feel-good vibes in the winners’ rooms and then there are moments that seem to have real consequences attached.
The Dogs rooms’ on Friday night were the latter as the players knocked off Carlton as a win that might just set up the club’s season.
Watching it all from up close as the players filed in were president Kylie Wheeler-Watson and CEO Ameet Bains.
They understandably were pumped, and they couldn’t have missed the feeling of unity and purpose in the playing group under coach Luke Beveridge.
Their decision to hold off on contract talks has likely honed the focus of Beveridge, and on face value it’s hard to know when he’s coached better.
The introduction of Joel Freijah into the midfield has been a masterstroke and he threw James O’Donnell forward where he kicked the match-winner.
Harvey Gallagher has gone back, Matt Kennedy has recruit-of-the-season vibes and Ryley Sanders still won 24 touches (and kicked a goal) playing mid-forward.
As Beveridge prepares to meet the powerbrokers for a semi-regular catch-up later this week, it would be fascinating to be a fly on the wall.
The challenges come quickly - Fremantle away, Brisbane in Gather Round, St Kilda, then GWS away.
But good football executives know when to support and when to prod.
Beveridge has responded to that increased focus. Keep it up and he might have a new deal by the mid-season break.
2. BLUES, WRIGHT NEED TO BE CAREFUL
In, the modern media world, clubs need to accept that their actions will be viewed by the most negative prism.
Why wouldn’t incoming CEO Graham Wright sit in the Carlton coaches box somewhere in cooee of Michael Voss in the early rounds of the season?
After all, the former Pies football boss is trying to get his head around all parts of the business before taking over from Brian Cook.
The problem is Carlton thought it would be marching up the ladder and is instead 0-3 with the coach searching for answers after the loss to the Western Bulldogs.
Paul Roos called the move “mindboggling” on ABC Sport and said “not only did it never happen in my time, it would never have happened in my time. That’s not the role of the CEO”.
He is right - in a business all about optics Wright’s well-meaning decision can so easily be twisted into a story about trust or lack thereof.
So Michael Voss will explain it away at his mid-week press conference, but it would surely surprise if Wright repeated the dose on Thursday night.
3. WHAT HAPPENS TO THE HAWKS?
Hawthorn has done the hard yards over two decades to truly invest in Tasmania as a state and has been handsomely rewarded by the state government.
Now as Tasmania comes into the competition from 2028 onwards, they are keen to continue playing home games in the Apple Aisle.
Why wouldn’t they, given their exceptional home record in Tasmania?
But if the Tasmanian state government has five million bucks a year left over (which is very arguable) why wouldn’t they try to buy more home games for the Devils instead of shelling out for the Hawks?
There will always be cash-strapped clubs keen to sell home games, with the Roos selling two home games into WA for the next three years.
Surely the smarter play is to try to attract extra Tasmania Devils content in the state instead of reward Hawthorn, even if many Tasmanian residents will still retain the Hawks as their second side.
4. BATTLE OF THE KINGS
Which King would you choose right now for the rest of their career if you could only have one?
Ross Lyon will have a decision to make on whether Max King returns through the VFL when he is fit after missing so much footy, but meanwhile brother Ben is on fire.
He has kicked 10 goals in two games and missed out on a huge bag against Melbourne with 4.3 and a host of chances.
But critics of both brothers would say when the ball hits the ground they have been slow to put pressure on or retain the ball inside 50.
Ben King was spectacular against Melbourne with relentless follow-up _ second efforts, handballs off the deck to surging teammates, keen to make his presence felt.
The knock-on effect is massive.
He plays well and helps reward Matt Rowell’s efforts as the gun midfielder gets early wins to help decide his future, and then Rowell stays and makes Ben King’s contract decision at the end of 2026 all the more easier.
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