Mick McGuane: Why GWS Giants and Sydney Swans are under pressure to deliver this year

Mick McGuane believes GWS Giants and Sydney Swans will both miss the finals this year. Here’s why he’s tipping both New South Wales sides to miss out.

Dawson Simpson wins a hit out for GWS during the JLT Series against Sydney.

I’m sick to death of hearing coaches after round one stating that if they lost, it’s not the end of the world.

It’s a massive weekend, and for GWS and Sydney, the heat is on them more than most.

Both clubs have plenty of challenges, and as shocking as it might sound, I don’t think either the Giants or Swans will play finals footy this year.

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You need momentum into your season and what you don’t want is a naught and two start.

History since 2010 states that only three of the 49 teams that have registered a naught and two start have made the top eight.

Sydney have done it on two occasions, in 2014 and 17, but then Collingwood last year are the only other outfit to have recovered from 0-2.

It might not be the end of the world but it’s quite compelling evidence.

You lose your first game and it can be a shocking way to start your season.

Lachlan Keeffe (L) and Stephen Coniglio (R) celebrate during the JLT Series.

GIANTS

The importance of getting off to a flyer applies two-fold I believe for the Giants.

They have a massive month coming up and their top eight hopes might hinge on it.

If they happen to turn around 0-4 or 1-3 against Essendon, West Coast, Richmond and Geelong — three of whom will probably be top eight teams — she’s going to be a mountain to climb.

And for most of this critical period they’re going to be without their midfield lieutenant Callan Ward (knee), who will be sorely missed, and Shane Mumford (suspended) who, once back will really look to assert his influence.

I’ve got great respect for Leon Cameron, I played a lot of footy against him. But there is real pressure on the GWS coach this year and he’ll be fully aware of that too.

I’m concerned by the amount of depth they’ve lost, particularly Tom Scully (Hawthorn), whose outside run was critical and Dylan Shiel (Essendon) who is such an explosive midfielder.

Who will step up?

The acid is really going to be on Stephen Coniglio, who I greatly admire, Tim Taranto, who has developed beautifully, and Josh Kelly who is one of the competition’s best players.

They must learn to improve their turnover game. They were ranked 14th last year on percentage of score from turnover, an indictment on that group. On points differential and points from forward half turnovers, there has been a clear downward spiral in their trends over the past three years.

I’ll be very surprised if Leon Cameron and his players haven’t gone to school over the summer. Having a strong stoppage game is positive but not sustainable, where as a strong turnover game is.

Nick Blakey is one of the young guns set for an early game at Sydney.

SWANS

Sydney’s A-grade midfield of Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and George Hewitt can cut it against any side in the competition. The concern I’ve got is the next players going in.

If they rob Peter to pay Paul and get Isaac Heeney to play as a midfielder, does that detract from another avenue to goal?

What do they do with Callum Mills? He can become a midfielder, but quite clearly when he and Jarrad McVeigh are across halfback they seem to be more creative on the counter-attack than most other clubs can match.

I don’t think they can rely on that defensive 50 transition to forward 50 transition as a way of winning games of footy. They have to be challenged to change their mode and style away from just retreating to defend and then using their weight of numbers to slingshot back out.

The Swans have to start being really aggressive and coming forward to defend. Get the ball in and win the territory game.

Forward players like Ben Ronke, Tom Papley, Will Hayward and Ollie Florent all have to get to work and really keep the ball in there to complement Buddy who can’t do it alone.

Sydney’s plan to get Franklin playing up the ground will be tested given the chequered pre-season he’s had and the sports science staff will have to work extremely hard to manage him between games.

John Longmire’s challenge is to evolve his game style so the Swans can once again measure themselves against the best.

Originally published as Mick McGuane: Why GWS Giants and Sydney Swans are under pressure to deliver this year