Mick McGuane preliminary final preview: Richmond v Geelong, how Cats cover for Tom Hawkins?
With Tom Hawkins facing suspension for his hit on Will Schofield, how can Geelong kick a winning score against flag favourite Richmond? Mick McGuane says two players will be crucial to the Cats’ hopes of an upset.
Geelong
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If Tom Hawkins fails in his bid to avoid suspension for this week’s preliminary final against Richmond, how can the Cats replace him?
The Geelong spearhead has long been the focal point of his side’s attack and his absence will put the pressure on Esava Ratugolea to be the No. 1 man up forward.
But Collingwood great Mick McGuane says the return of Gary Rohan and ability of Harry Taylor to pinch hit in attack can cover for Hawkins’ absence.
While he’s tipping the Tigers, McGuane has identified the pair as crucial if Geelong stands any hope of an upset.
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HOW THEY PLAY
In many ways, these two teams are just about complete opposites.
Richmond loves chaos. It’s all about a surge mentality, keeping the ball in motion and moving it forward by any means possible.
The Tigers’ ball movement and ability to hurt teams off turnover is a strength and they are not afraid to use the corridor.
Geelong is all about contest and controlling the tempo of the game, through careful ball movement around the boundary as they bring the ball out of their back half.
The Cats are the hardest team to score against from turnovers this year as a result.
But Richmond ranks No. 1 in that stat since the bye, also boasting strong defensive foundations.
RICHMOND
THE KEY
Keep the ball moving. Slow ball movement is only going to suit Geelong’s back six and let them get set. It’s all about surge and metres gained through forward handball and forward kicks for the Tigers. Since the bye, the Tigers have averaged 63 points a game from turnovers, ranked No. 1 in the competition, on the back of winning an average of 76 intercept possessions. Turnover is where they do their most damage and why playing fast is a priority.
THE CHALLENGE
If the long-range weather forecast is right, the challenge will be defensive 50 ground ball hunt for the Tigers. A predicted wet night will suit the Cats, who are the best ground ball team in the competition and boast strong ground-level players forward in Gary Ablett, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Atkins and Gryan Miers. We know Richmond has strong intercept marks in Nick Vlastuin and Dylan Grimes, but if the ball gets to ground level the Cats could do some damage.
THE THEME
Serve it up to the Cats in the contest. Geelong has been the No. 1 contested ball team in the competition all season and won count against the Eagles by 23 on Friday night. While Richmond tends to step up this area of its game in finals, it hasn’t been a strength across the season but needs to be here.
IF I WAS RICHMOND …
I’d be sending Dylan Grimes to Patrick Dangerfield when he spends time forward, which might happen a lot more without Tom Hawkins in the Cats’ attack.
David Astbury goes to Esava Ratugolea and then I’d give Nick Vlastuin, Nathan Broad and Bachar Houli scope to roll off their opponents and lead the Tigers’ intercept game.
Around stoppage, Jack Graham has to go to Tim Kelly in a run-with role.
Kelly is not generally the first possession winner for the Cats, but he often kickstarts their offence with the first handball or kick out of congestion.
Graham needs to be accountable and ensure he is not a bee to a honey pot around the ball.
GEELONG
THE KEY
It’s all about the contest for the Cats. They were strong in the air and at ground level against West Coast last week and it showed on the scoreboard. In its qualifying final against Brisbane, Richmond lost contested ball in the first quarter by 14 before getting itself back into the game with improvement in that area. To give themselves the best chance, the Cats must dominate contested ball throughout the match.
THE CHALLENGE
The selection table. What does Chris Scott do in the absence of Tom Hawkins? Hawkins has played every game this year and kicked 56.32 which is a huge chunk of Geelong’s score. His absence leaves Esava Ratugolea as No. 1 forward. He was super against the Eagles as the second-fiddle, but will draw a lot more focus without Hawkins by his side. He must make a contest and at least get the ball to ground.
THE THEME
Continue to play the Cats way. The Tigers want ping-pong chaos. Geelong can’t afford to let that happen. Geelong games this year average the fourth-fewest turnovers and it’s because of their control by foot through a boundary line, slow-kicking game from the backline which protects turnovers. The Cats have to ensure they retain that style to keep the game on their terms.
IF I WAS GEELONG ….
First thing is first — selection.
If Gary Rohan’s fit, he comes in for Hawkins. A forward for a forward, albeit different types of players. Start Rohan out of the goalsquare.
I’d also be entertaining the selection of Jordan Clark, if he’s fit, given the opposition and his ability to play on the Richmond small forwards.
Tom Stewart must go to Dustin Martin when the Tigers’ star spends time forward.
Joel Selwood must again be in the thick of the action around the ball as he was on Friday.
And I’d swing Harry Taylor forward as various stages during the game, but not permanently.
Esava Ratugolea is going to need some support at some stage without Tom Hawkins.
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PREDICTION: Richmond by 20
MATCH ODDS (TAB)
Richmond $1.40
Geelong $3
FLAG ODDS
Richmond $2.30
Geelong $5
INJURIES
RICHMOND
Sydney Stack (ankle) indefinite
Jack Higgins (brain bleed) season
Alex Rance (knee) season
GEELONG
Gary Rohan (knee) test
Jordan Clark (elbow) test
Mitch Duncan (knee) 1 week
Tom Hawkins (suspension) 1 week
Jordan Cunico (ankle) season
Originally published as Mick McGuane preliminary final preview: Richmond v Geelong, how Cats cover for Tom Hawkins?