Mick McGuane: Bombers are flat-track bullies and need to take down big scalp on road to prove otherwise
They might have won five of their past six games but Mick McGuane says the Bombers are false prophets with their inability to win against a top-eight team and also on the road glaring holes in their armour.
It’s time for Essendon to make a stand — on the road and against a top eight side.
The Bombers may have won their past three games — and five of their past six — but until John Worsfold’s team consistently beats teams ahead of it on the ladder and wins games interstate, they can’t be considered contenders.
To be a contender, you need to be an “anywhere, anytime team”. The Bombers aren’t.
On face value, they are flat-track bullies.
The only way to smash that perception is to beat a team such as Adelaide on Friday night … in hostile territory.
In their three interstate trips this year, the Bombers were trashed by 12 goals against the Giants in Round 1, they were stiff to lose to Sydney by five points when Dane Rampe climbed the goalpost in Round 8, and they lost by 35 points (it should have been 10 goals or more) against West Coast in Round 14, when the Eagles had 36 scoring shots to 16.
Tonight presents a good litmus test.
The Crows have been gettable at home this year, and if the Bombers can channel the energy and enthusiasm that Collingwood did last week against West Coast, they can make a statement.
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But Essendon’s record against top eight sides this year is damning — two wins and five losses.
Adelaide is the only top eight side it has not met this year.
Most concerning is the fact the Bombers’ scoring dips to 67.6 points against the top eight sides, compared to 86.1 points against the sides outside the eight.
Teams who travel and consistently lose are mentally brittle.
Essendon can give that more credence on Friday night or change it. It’s your choice, Bombers.
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AMBROSE BACK
The loss of Michael Hurley will hurt, but the Bombers will be aided by the return of Patrick Ambrose.
Hurley has won the most disposals of any key defender this year, but as good as he is, he still turns the ball over by foot too often for a person of his skill level.
In 49 contests defending one-on-one duels, he has a loss rate of 30.6 per cent.
Ambrose has had 28 one-on-ones, but his loss rate is only seven per cent, which means he has only lost two of those contests.
Ambrose will play a big role tonight in trying to stop Taylor Walker.
It might surprise some to know Ambrose has taken the opposition's toughest opponent on most occasions this year, and has kept most of them to their lowest Champion Data rankings points of the season.
He’s missed three weeks with injury, but Woosha will be happy to have him back.
Cale Hooker will likely be given a role on Josh Jenkins.
He loves the one-on-one contests. I’ve got no doubt those two match-ups will go a long way to determining who wins this game.
PLAYING TAG
Earlier in the year I was very vocal in calling for the Bombers to introduce a tagger to the team, and to John Worsfold’s credit, he has done it with Dylan Clarke.
Clarke came in for the Round 11 game with Carlton and shut down Patrick Cripps, keeping him to 11 possessions.
Since then, the young Bomber has played on Jaeger O'Meara, Luke Shuey, Josh Kelly, Luke Parker and, most recently, Ben Cunnington.
Cunnington has been unstoppable this year, but Clarke restricted him to 15 disposals last week — 12 fewer than his season average.
The correlation to Clarke winning his role and the Bombers winning the game has been pretty clear cut.
Clarke will take either Crows ball accumulator Matt Crouch or Adelaide’s heart-and-soul player Rory Sloane.
If he can take another scalp, it will allow midfielders Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, Andrew McGrath, David Zaharakis and Kyle Langford to spend more time across the ground — running through the wing and half forward as well as around the ball.
Dyson Heppell will play tonight, despite his foot issue. Expect him to play 30 to 40 per cent of his time on the wing.
Without Heppell and Tom Bellchambers last week, Essendon still won the clearance count by 10 against the Kangaroos.
It’s a big ask for the Bombers coming up against Reilly O’Brien — one of the emerging ruckmen in the competition — without a recognised ruckman.
Zac Clarke played a role on Todd Goldstein last week but will be missing on Friday night with illness.
So it means they will have to go with a makeshift situation with perhaps Shaun McKernan and Cale Hooker assisting. It’s not an ideal situation.
HERE’S A TIP
We gravitate to the special talent of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, which is no wonder given his game-winning snap last week.
“Tippa” has kicked 24 goals in Essendon’s nine wins this year; in the Bombers’ losses, he has kicked only one.
In fairness, he is far from a liability when he doesn’t kick goals as his assists and his tackle count are often higher than when he hits the scoreboard.
But we want to see him take last weekend’s form on the road trip, which he hasn’t done so far this year.
In three interstate trips this season, he has only had a total of 21 possessions for one goal.
When I was playing for Collingwood, I always wanted to get the ball in Peter Daicos’ hands early in a game because he had a capacity to lift the team in a heartbeat.
It's the same with Tippa.
There won't be a lot of crowd support tonight, so if McDonald-Tipungwuti is creating havoc, it will act as a spur for his teammates.
That might be a great start to what needs to be a season-defining performance tonight.
Originally published as Mick McGuane: Bombers are flat-track bullies and need to take down big scalp on road to prove otherwise
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