Carlton deep dive special: Inside look at where the Blues are placed ahead of 2020 season
Carlton is poised for a sharp rise up the ladder —if a group of 16 players can turn potential into performance. Who needs to step up in 2020? Jon Ralph answers Carlton’s burning questions.
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Don’t get sucked into the Charlie Curnow saviour complex.
If there is any message for the Carlton supporters as they nervously await a rare season with performance anxiety, it is that Curnow isn’t going to save the Blues by himself.
As David Teague and his remodelled list finally gain something approaching maturity, Curnow’s bung knee will likely keep him out for months.
If you really want to know the secret to Carlton’s potential surge up the ladder, consider this list: Jack Silvagni, Paddy Dow, Lochie O’Brien, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Matthew Kennedy, Harry McKay, Mitch McGovern, Tom de Koning, Liam Stocker, Jack Martin, Caleb Marchbank, Zac Fisher, Marc Pittonet, David Cuningham, Tom Williamson and Will Setterfield.
Every single one of these players has massive upside in a team that football boss Brad Lloyd tells the Herald Sun wants to play up-tempo, attractive football.
Every one one of those players has the capacity to be a star in their own section of the field.
Case in point: David Cuningham, who turns 23 this year and can peel off two-goal, 23-possession games against Collingwood and yet remains a mystery after 25 AFL games.
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If 10 of that group of 16 players are clamouring for top-five best-and-fairest results this year, Carlton will be playing finals and no one will be worrying about Curnow any more.
The good news, according to Lloyd, is that most of them have had excellent pre-seasons under second-year fitness boss Andrew Russell.
As Lloyd says, he gets access to their bodies but also their hearts and minds.
Carlton has enough A-grader, it has had enough access to elite talent through the draft, and now those kids need to progress from potential to performance.
“We feel like we are a lot fitter and stronger than this time last year and Andrew Russell has had the group for over a year and been able to really impact the minds and bodies of the playing group,” Lloyd said.
“We got a lot of games into the younger players last year, so we will be better for that.
“We got 185 games into 18-21 year-olds so that group will be significantly advantaged by that experience.
“The game plan has evolved over the summer to really build as a continuation of the back-end of 2019.
“We want to play an exciting brand of footy that moves the ball well. We have a good forward line so we have to give them a chance, but we also want to defend strongly as well because we have a really good back six that is starting to settle really well.”
Lloyd knows there will be teething problems at times, and they were evident against Brisbane on Sunday night.
A Blues team with the best outfit it could field was obliterated in the last three terms, those youngsters so impressive in the first stanza but going MIA from there on in.
It means the Blues will again go into their season opener against Richmond huge underdogs, but Carlton is adamant it won’t erode its gains over summer.
Teague is adamant the kids won’t get better just by happy accident, with Luke Power the new head of development and the highly rated Henry Playfair the head of coaching performance.
Of this year’s draftees Brodie Kemp will come on slowly after a 2019 Anterior Cruciate Ligamanet tear while Sam Philp has got game time in early sorties as a lightly framed but hard-at-it mid.
Lloyd likes what he has seen of that mid-tier who have at times frustrated and at others delighted.
“Guys like Fisher, Setterfield, Williamson, De Koning and O’Brien have really grown over the break,” he says.
“So has Sam Petrevski-Seton and Jack Martin has really impressed with the way he has gone about his training and how much he attacks the ball.
“Marc Pittonet adds a new dimension to the ruck to support Tom and Kreuz, Jack Newnes adds experience and Eddie Betts has been outstanding individually and for the players to run around with him and learn from him.”
OK, so let’s talk about Betts.
All trade period there were reports that Stephen Silvagni was lukewarm on his recruitment but that Teague was desperate to secure him.
Now Silvagni has gone as list manager, and everyone at the club believes Betts has been a phenomenally positive influence at Ikon Park, as well as showing sparkling form in a practice match against Collingwood.
“The bottom line is we believe in him,” says Lloyd.
“We feel he has footy left in him and it’s a need in the role he plays.
“So we are excited about his footy and everything else he brings culturally.
“We discussed him over a long time at list management and didn’t hesitate to get him into the club. We couldn’t be happier with him.”
Adelaide dropped Betts last year because it felt his defensive pressure had dropped off, so Carlton will need to monitor that statistic.
But in an ideal world the talls are a combination of McKay, McGovern and Levi Casboult and the pressure can also come from Michael Gibbons, Matt Kennedy and Jack Silvagni.
Carlton fans will spend the season bemoaning Tom Papley’s slashing form at Sydney but in truth pick nine was on the table and the Swans never baulked at keeping him.
A club that once boasted Kreuzer, Sam Jacobs, Robert Warnock and Shaun Hampson as ruck depth is again building on that front.
Kreuzer had minor heart surgery but was back on Sunday night, with pick 30 Tom De Koning the exciting colt and ex-Hawk Marc Pittonet the old fashioned bash-and-crash ruck with strong second efforts.
“With Kreuzer’s athleticism and his attitude it’s hard to put a ceiling on how long he can play for, “ Lloyd says of the 30-year-old veteran.
“We feel like De Koning and Pittonet compliment each other beautifully. They are very different styles of ruckmen.
“De Koning is a jumper and athletic and Pittonet is a competitor with the way he hits bodies and bashes in.”
So where does it all position Carlton, accused too often of over-hyping its list and now coming out the other side of an interminable rebuild.
“We think there has been a real progression from last year,” says Lloyd.
“We are in really good shape and nothing is guaranteed. You have to earn every result but the group is really close and the footy department and coaches are really united.”
THE LIST
IN: Eddie Betts, Marc Pittonet, Jack Newnes, Brodie Kemp, Sam Philp, Sam Ramsay, Jack Martin
OUT: Alex Fasolo, Matthew Lobbe, Jarrod Garlett, Pat Kerr, Angus Schumacher, Kim Lebois, Andrew Phillips, Josh Deluca
There is A-Grade talent in spades — Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Sam Walsh, Eddie Betts, and Zac Fisher — but it is all about development.
Can Jacob Weitering be one of the top-five defenders in the league after a breakout year in which he finished sixth in the best and fairest?
Can No.3 draft pick Paddy Dow become a regular contributor, can Lochie O’Brien hone his competitive instincts to become a matchwinner, can Matt Kennedy carve out a role as a tough half-forward/bullocking mid?
If Carlton doesn’t have enough talent on its list its not for lack of high draft selections so the time is now for this list to deliver.
OFF CONTRACT
Caleb Marchbank, Darcy Lang, Ben Silvagni, Ed Curnow, Hugh Goddard, Kade Simpson, Marc Murphy, Matthew Kreuzer and Tom Williamson
Carlton’s single triumph in recent years has been re-signing a fleet of high draft picks as well as stars such as Patrick Cripps and Marc Murphy despite disastrous on-field results.
Ed Curnow, Kade Simpson, Matthew Kreuzer and Marc Murphy are now likely in the territory of signing one-year deals in the back-end of seasons, while Lang needs to prove himself and Goddard is an excellent VFL player who hasn’t made the jump to regular AFL appearances.
Ben Silvagni will need to show something given his initial two-year expires, while the Blues only gave fellow tall forward Patrick Kerr two seasons despite his promise and historic Blues links.
“We have only had our list manager Nick Austin here in the last couple of weeks so everyone is in a case-by-case situation and we won’t get into individuals but we are in a very healthy position from a list management perspective,” Lloyd says.
“We have lots of players signed longer-term and a couple of players who are a bit older who have signed one-year contracts.”
BIG YEAR FOR
Mitch McGovern
Carlton would love to be paying 105 per cent of the salary cap because they had secured Sydney’s Tom Papley but instead they are using it to front-end some deals.
It places more pressure on McGovern, who is on a king’s ransom and in for perhaps the most important season of his career.
Is he a matchwinning star or a flash-in-the-pan player who can do the indescribable but then mix it with the mundane way too often?
He is fit after fat camp but has still been held out of training sessions with leg issues post-Christmas.
“He has been working hard,” Lloyd says.
“He has been managed with a bit of soreness and he is ready to go. It’s just around his core and part of that has been building up to getting him ready.”
PRE-SEASON HERO
Tom Williamson
The 2016 draft selection only had to wait until Round 3 of his first year to debut as a rangy 190cm defender with a sublime left foot.
But back injuries have conspired to restrict him to 17 games after that impressive debut against Essendon.
Now he is fit again and has shown enough in pre-season games to make Teague’s job of finding a spot for him in a stacked backline fairly challenging.
At the least Carlton’s depth of backline smalls — Simpson, Plowman, Docherty and Petrevski-Seton in a new role — vindicates a tough decision to move on Dale Thomas.
“He has had a really good pre-season,” Lloyd says of Williamson.
“This time last year he was still working through things but he’s a long way ahead in his conditioning levels.
“In our intra-club in Mooloolaba and against Collingwood he was good so he will add to some competition for spots.”
BEST PLAYER YOU’VE NEVER HEARD OF
Tom De Koning
To the outside world he’s an unknown, but the Blues fans have all heard of him, flooding their bulletin boards and twitter feeds with signs of his potential.
The 203cm ruck/forward is athletic, has a lovely leap and as a pick 30 in the 2017 national draft will be given time to flourish.
He has only two games under his belt and is down the ruck pecking order – Matthew Kreuzer and Marc Pittonet are ahead – but given he can kick a goal, take contested marks forward and get around the ground he could be the perfect second ruck-third forward successor for Casboult.
Coming into the final term against Brisbane he took a strong mark on the line and converted the difficult checkside goal, just another reminder of his talents.
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This story is part of Deep Dive, a new series taking fans into the inner sanctum and exploring the issues and opportunities of every AFL club ahead of season 2020. Our team of AFL journalists cast their expert eye over all teams, players and prospects to give you a deeper picture. A new club is explored each day until the first bounce on Thursday, March 19.
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Originally published as Carlton deep dive special: Inside look at where the Blues are placed ahead of 2020 season