Alastair Lynch: Brisbane should make the AFL top eight — could they go all the way?
Brisbane champion Alastair Lynch expects the Lions to make the AFL’s top eight for the first time since 2009 and once they tick that off, they could take inspiration from the Western Bulldogs’ astonishing 2016 premiership.
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It’s that time of the year when you can’t help but look at the draw and calculate if your team makes the finals.
I certainly have and from here Brisbane should make the eight.
I have little doubt that the Lions players have also done the same over the past two weeks. Their first close look probably came at the bye following their shock loss to Carlton when it started to feel like crunch time.
And they would have checked the ladder again after the win over St Kilda, which not only ended a run of losses on the road but also saw them produce the type of football needed to win finals.
It would have been difficult for any player to not start dreaming about playing in a final after that win.
However, as much as journos will pose questions about finals, nothing changes internally.
The coaches will be very determined to stick to the routine of preparing, executing, recovering and then reviewing before starting the cycle again.
That won’t change week after week and, as Chris Fagan said last week, the minute it does is when you invite trouble.
The major change this season is that the Lions go into every game absolutely believing they can win. As much as they may have said that in the past, it wasn’t always the case.
It was mostly closer to hoping they could play their best which would give them a chance of challenging for a win.
No matter what happens from here, Brisbane will say it has been a step forward and a positive year.
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I agree fully with that.
But from this position and with their hard-won reputation at home, the Lions should not miss the top eight and to do so would be a disappointment.
Yes, the Carlton loss reminded us that they are still an evolving young team. It will take time for them to acquire the consistency of performance that is the hallmark of established finals sides.
They still need an ounce of luck to go their way and they were clearly battling fatigue before to the bye.
What we have seen in the last three years is the competition has evolved into a 22-round qualifying tournament where teams prepare to nail their final month.
A top two or four finish is still the goal because home-ground advantage and the second chance are always advantageous, but it does not feel as pronounced as it once did.
West Coast finished first last year and duly won the flag but prior to that the last Premier to finish top two was Hawthorn in 2014.
The Bulldogs won it from seventh in 2016 to shatter the belief that flags were almost impossible to win from outside the top four.
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What the Bulldogs showed is how important the final month is in modern footy. Perhaps Richmond last year are another example of that but in reverse, having won the minor premiership but not made the grand final.
Injuries will play a huge part and, on that front, Brisbane are in a superb position.
This season is as hard to predict as ever before.
Geelong, who finished eighth last year and were bundled out in week one of the finals are clear on top while 2018 preliminary finalists Melbourne and Richmond are out of the eight.
Brisbane have five of their last nine games at home and their away trips include Hawthorn, who they beaten in their past three encounters.
Brisbane’s goal now should be a top-six position and a home final.
Given the closeness of the competition and their home form, there isn’t a side in the AFL who would be comfortable travelling to the Gabba for a knockout final.
Originally published as Alastair Lynch: Brisbane should make the AFL top eight — could they go all the way?
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