AFL 2021 preview: How the Brisbane Lions can avenge last year’s preliminary final loss

First-round draft pick Zac Bailey played a career-high 19 games in 2020 including Brisbane’s finals series. Can his improvement continue next season?

Skipper Dayne Zorko will hope to lead Brisbane deep into finals again.

There was to be no fairytale flag at the Gabba, but Brisbane Lions took another step forward in their progression under Chris Fagan last season.

With Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale amassing disposals at will, the Lions long appeared a premiership contender and went within one victory of hosting a historic Grand Final.

But it was not to be as they were blown away by Geelong in a lopsided preliminary final which will have left Fagan’s side smarting during the off-season.

The arrivals of injury-prone but talented duo Joe Daniher and Nakia Cockatoo have been major talking points, but both will give Lions fans even more reason to flock to the Gabba if Brisbane’s highly-regarded medical team can get them back to their best.

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Joe Daniher joined Brisbane Lions as a free agent after an injury-riddled run at Essendon.

INS: The Lions landed one of the biggest fish in the free agency market this off-season by signing Essendon forward Joe Daniher who although a risk with his body will compliment Eric Hipwood inside 50 nicely. They also added Geelong speedster Nakia Cockatoo who if he can get fit will be a very handy addition to their midfield. Blake Coleman (pick 24), Harry Sharp (pick 43) and Henry Smith (pick 48).

OUTS: Ruckman Stef Martin has joined the Western Bulldogs and defender Alex Witherden was traded to West Coast while Geelong premiership player Allen Christensen retired and Toby Wooler, Jacob Allison, Sam Skinner, Corey Lyons, Matt Eagles were all delisted as was Mitchell Hinge who signed with the Crows as a delisted free agent.

Chris Fagan has transformed Brisbane’s culture in recent seasons.

COACH STATUS:

Chris Fagan signed a two-year extension in 2018 keeping him at the club until 2021 and is surely in line for a new deal. Fagan has been at the helm since 2017 and in that time the Lions have finished 18th, 15th, 2nd and 2nd by making a semi-final and preliminary final. At 59, Fagan is the oldest coach in the competition but doing a remarkable job and looks set to stay on for a while yet.

GAME PLAN:

The Lions have built their game around a young and energetic midfield led by Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage and skipper Dayne Zorko. Together they’ve seen the side ranked top five for both contested possession and hard ball gets, and third for clearances this season.

The forward line poses multiple threats including talls Eric Hipwood and Daniel McStay and dynamic smalls Charlie Cameron and Cameron Rayner.

But to take the next step the Lions needed to bolster their scoring power after managing just 6.6 against Geelong in the preliminary final, and they’re hoping Joe Daniher is the answer. Part of their problem is they generate wide and long set shots so the final kick inside 50m will be crucial in improving their scoring efficiency.

TRADE TABLE REPORT:

Joe Daniher was the main target and they signed him during free agency, albeit to a three-year deal believed to be worth $2.5m which has some scratching their heads given his injury history. But if Daniher can recapture his best form (he kicked 65 goals in 2017 but only 18 in the three seasons since) then it will be money well spent.

As promising as Hipwood is, he isn’t at the level to play as Brisbane’s main focal point inside 50m and his set shot is unreliable, although Essendon fans would say the same about Big Joe.

The other big addition in the off-season was Nakia Cockatoo who was Pick 10 in the 2014 draft but whose injuries kept him to just 34 games with Geelong.

Brisbane got Daniher for nothing given he was a free agent and gave up just a future third-round pick for Cockatoo. The biggest loss was Alex Witherden who requested a trade to West Coast after 59 games.

The Lions traded him and Pick 86 to the Eagles in exchange for Pick 58 and a future third-round selection. They also got Pick 63 for losing Stef Martin via a three-way trade involving the Bulldogs and North Melbourne. All up the sum of what came in compared to what went out should satisfy Lions fans and help their climb up the ladder.

Joe Daniher will provide Eric Hipwood with support in attack.

THEIR 2020 DRAFT HAUL:

The Lions did not enter the draft until late in the first round but will be pleased with livewire forward Blake Coleman at pick No. 24 – the younger brother of Brisbane player Keidean Coleman.

Harry Sharp (pick 43) is a hard-running wingman, but is still 17 with another year of school to complete so will need 12 months before he is called upon to boost Brisbane’s outside midfield stocks. Henry Smith (No. 48) is a ruckman who the club will hope can develop around Oscar McInerney.

PLAYERS THEY CAN REINVENT:

Zac Bailey will be ready to add to Brisbane’s midfield depth next year. He played a career-high 19 games in his third AFL season and was most dangerous as a small forward kicking 13 goals. A first-round draft pick from 2017, Bailey will give Chris Fagan more options at stoppages with his speed and flair.

Where that leaves Cameron Ellis-Yolmen remains to be seen and he may have to reinvent himself instead of just as an inside mid. He played in the preliminary final loss to Geelong but had 12 disposals and little impact.

Shorter quarters didn’t stop Lachie Neale racking up disposals.

READY TO TAKE THE NEXT STEP:

The Lions had been waiting for Jack Payne to kick on and after two frustrating seasons with injury he made his debut and played five games, showing enough to suggest he can put pressure on the back six for selection in 2021.

Young midfielder Tom Berry also debuted this year and while he didn’t rack up big numbers, he can join brother Jarrod in the Lions’ engine room on a regular basis. Like Berry, Keidean Coleman also played five games after debuting this year including the qualifying final and was very impressive.

BEST 22 FOR NEXT SEASON:

B: Grant Birchall, Harris Andrews, Ryan Lester

HB: Brandon Starcevich, Marcus Adams, Daniel Rich

C: Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko, Mitch Robinson

HF: Daniel McStay, Eric Hipwood, Cam Rayner

F: Cockatoo, Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron

R: Oscar McInerney, Lachie Neale, Jarrod Berry,

Int: Lincoln McCarthy, Zac Bailey, Callum Ah Chee, Jarryd Lyons

CHAMPION DATA SAYS:

Good: The Lions generated the second-most points from a forward half turnover and fourth-most points from a forward half chain.

Bad: Brisbane recorded a shot at goal accuracy of 43 per cent – ranked 17th and below the AFL average of 47 per cent. They also recorded the worst shot at goal accuracy from a set shot of any side across the competition.

FINISH THE LAST FIVE YEARS: 2020: 2nd (preliminary final), 2019: 2nd (semi-final), 2018: 15th, 2017: 18th, 2016: 17th.

TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $7.50.

Originally published as AFL 2021 preview: How the Brisbane Lions can avenge last year’s preliminary final loss