Will Adelaide face Buddy Franklin’s Swans or Paddy Dangerfield’s Cats in its AFL preliminary final?
ADELAIDE’S last hurdle to ending a 19-year AFL grand final drought will be defined on Friday night at the MCG when Geelong and Sydney play to settle who becomes the Crows’ next opponent
DON Pyke on Friday night will have the luxury of scouting the team that is to stand in the way as the Adelaide Football Club’s last hurdle to ending a 19-year AFL grand final drought.
His Crows also will benefit from resting their legs at home, but perhaps not their minds as they study on television which of Sydney or Geelong is to be at Adelaide Oval on next Friday for Adelaide’s first home preliminary final since 2006.
They certainly do not get the luxury to choose the opponent ... and it seems it will be Sydney with power forward Lance “Buddy” Franklin and the finals-hardened Swans more so than a rematch with Crows 2015 club champion and 2016 Brownlow Medallist Patrick Dangerfield and his new Geelong team-mates.
There is no doubt Adelaide is on the toughest side of draw while the other preliminary finalist, Richmond, waits for the winner of the Greater Western Sydney-West Coast semi-final in Sydney.
Sydney is expected to return to Adelaide Oval next week - a month after beating the Crows by three points in an epic Friday Night Football contest in which the Swans appeared to have more in reserve than Adelaide.
And St Kilda defender Jarryn Geary has increased the anticipation for a preliminary final that could be a better contest than the grand final at the MCG on Saturday September 30.
“I still would not want to play Sydney in a final,” Geary told radio FIVEaa this week. “They’re good. Adelaide and Sydney ... they are two teams I would be pretty nervous rocking up on the last day of the season.
“Only one of them is going to make it to the grand final ...”
Sydney exposed Adelaide - and set up Pyke’s pre-season program - in last year’s semi-final at the SCG where contested football and midfield strength was the Swans’ basis for superiority on the Crows.
The teams have met only once since that semi-final - with the Swans holding their superiority on August 18. This marked Sydney’s sixth win in seven games against the Crows dating to the 2012 qualifying final at Football Park.
Geelong no longer appears a nemesis to the Crows - and would be the “easier” opponent in a home preliminary final.
Adelaide’s 21-point win against the Cats in Round 18 (July 21) at Adelaide Oval broke a five-game losing run against Geelong that began in March 2014. And Pyke certainly addressed the key issues in Crows-Cats games, in particular at the contests and in how to overcome Geelong’s noted tactics of loading its defence.
The preliminary final will be Adelaide’s fifth since the 1998 grand final triumph against North Melbourne. There have been away losses to Collingwood (2002 at the MCG), West Coast (2005 in Perth) and Hawthorn (2012 at the MCG) and the home loss to West Coast at Football Park in 2006.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Chief Football Writer MICHELANGELO RUCCI looks at how the cards change for Adelaide as the Crows wait on their AFL preliminary final opponent - Sydney or Geelong.
CROWS v SWANS
RECORD: Crows 23, Swans 16
AT OVAL: Crows 1, Swans 2
IN ADELAIDE: Crows 12, Swans 9
IN FINALS: Crows 1, Swans 2
LAST TIME: Sydney 13.5 (83) d Adelaide 11.14 (80) at Adelaide Oval, August 18, this season
CROWS v CATS
RECORD: Crows 18, Cats 23
AT OVAL: Crows 1, Cats 0
IN ADELAIDE: Crows 15, Cats 6
IN FINALS: Crows 1, Cats 0
LAST TIME: Adelaide 13.13 (91) d Geelong 10.10 (70) at Adelaide Oval, July 21, this season
TRUMP CARDS
CROWS
TEAM defence. While Adelaide is noted for its attacking power - in particular with the impressive targets of captain Taylor Walker, specialist goalsneak Eddie Betts and the connection between Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch and Mitch McGovern - the cornerstone of the Crows’ game is the defensive work that begins well before the ball goes into the opposition half. Since the mid-season bye - when Adelaide “evolved” its defence - the Crows have conceded 100 points or more just twice (in the draw to Collingwood and the meaningless home-and-away closer with West Coast).
SWANS
FINALS hardened. Since 1996, when impressive Swans midfielder Isaac Heeney was born, Sydney has played in every AFL finals series except 2000, 2002 and 2009. This would be the Swans’ fifth preliminary final in the past six seasons. Such consistency is built on far more than talent. There also is the “contest and congest” playbook created by coach John Longmire that stands up in finals - and, after the semi-final at the SCG last season, made the Crows reassess their work.
CATS
GEELONG’S long-standing challenge to the Crows - win at the contest and overcome the Cats’ system of keeping defenders at critical points in the centre corridor and by the goalsquare - was finally overcome at Adelaide Oval in July. So much falls on the shoulders of captain Joel Selwood and Brownlow Medallist Patrick Dangerfield to set the agenda in the midfield. The prospect of pairing Harry Taylor and Tom Hawkins in attack (5.0 and 1.3 each last time) would need to make the difference on the scoreboard.
VERDICT: Bring on Geelong.
KEY QUESTION
CROWS
AFTER the break? Adelaide will be playing its second game in 26 days - and vice-captain Rory Sloane, who missed the qualifying final by his appendix surgery, will be in his first AFL game in almost a month. The run to the sun on the Gold Coast will either become a copycat ploy for future preliminary finalists - or a point of debate should the Crows make another flawed start.
SWANS
LONG campaign. After the 0-6 start, the Swans have been on a tightrope for 18 consecutive weeks - and there is the question of whether such a journey will take its toll, more so when Sydney plays such a physically demanding game. The Swans fitness crew is regarded as one of the AFL’s finest - and will earn greater plaudits if it keeps this Sydney playing group at its peak.
CATS
ARE they good enough? It is an extraordinary question to put on the team that ranked second at the end of the home-and-away series with 15 wins from 22 games - the same as Adelaide. But the record of just two wins in their past nine finals leave the Cats exposed to the question of how they rate when it matters most.
VERDICT: Bring on Geelong.
X-FACTOR
CROWS
RORY LAIRD. Losing fellow rebounding defender Brodie Smith (right knee) in the qualifying final against GWS compels Adelaide to hold All-Australian defender Rory Laird in the back half rather than work him in cameos in the midfield. And it will increase opposition focus on Laird and the need to quell his precise ball movement on the exit plays from defence. This might also play to Paul Seedsman’s advantage if he takes up Smith’s role.
SWANS
CALLUM SINCLAIR. The West Coast recruit has become a better option in the Swans’ attacking system than Kurt Tippett. The inevitably heavy focus on Sydney power forward Lance Franklin does open up opportunity for Sinclair and Dean Towers - as highlighted by this pairing each kicking three goals in the elimination final rout of Essendon at the SCG.
CATS
DANIEL MENZEL. At least Geelong coach Chris Scott is big enough to admit he made the wrong call in ignoring the mercurial Cat from his forward combination in the qualifying final against Richmond at the MCG. “He’s certainly got that X-Factor,” Scott says. “When his body’s feeling good, he’s a really dangerous player ahead of the ball. No doubt about that.”
KEY PLAYER
CROWS
TOM LYNCH. Crows key forward Josh Jenkins noted last week that Adelaide’s play this season has evolved from “slingshot” to traditional loading up of forwards. And the incredibly important linkman - with timely passing to create space for the Crows forwards - is Lynch, who finally earned an All-Australian nomination this season.
SWANS
DANE RAMPE. No coincidence that Sydney’s poor start - 0-6 - came with the absence of the All-Australian defender after he broke an arm while trying to jump a fence during a jogging session in late March after the season-opener. And since Rampe returned in Round 9, the Swans form line has dramatically changed to wins rather than losses (13-2).
CATS
SAM MENEGOLA. It cannot always be Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and the switch-hitting move with key position player Harry Taylor. Menegola, the former Hawthorn and Fremantle player who is making the most of his move to Geelong, has a vital role to work both in starting moves in the Cats’ midfield and in finishing plays.
EARLY CALL
SWANS to advance from the semi-finals - and the preliminary final against Adelaide will determine if Sydney or the Crows are the favourite for the AFL grand final at the MCG on Saturday, September 30.
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