AFL Draft 2021: Adelaide’s four prospects for No.1 pick
The 2007 draft perfectly illustrates why Adelaide should bid on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, even though he will end up at the Western Bulldogs.
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Adelaide’s list management committee will sit down on Friday to make a decision on doing themselves out of the second-greatest prize in footy — the No.1 draft pick.
The club’s assembled list management team will settle on their draft order and then solidify their intent about whether to bid on Bulldogs-linked star Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
For those only swatting up on their draft coverage a week out, Ugle-Hagan is the generational forward who every junior talent watcher believes is the draft’s best player, but will end up at Whitten Oval when the Dogs match a bid — wherever it comes on December 9.
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Many list managers believe Adelaide has talked a good game to make the Bulldogs sweat, but will eventually move on to leave North Melbourne (pick 2) or Sydney (pick 3) to do the dirty work.
But while so many clubs would be desperate to recruit a player as the No.1 selection as a marketing exercise, the fishbowl that is Adelaide means the opposite applies.
As the Herald Sun first reported in September, Adelaide under recruiter Hamish Ogilvie and list manager Justin Reid have always held firm to their draft order, even if it means bidding on rival players in the top 10.
It means if they believe Ugle-Hagan is the best kid, they bid on him.
They did it on Tarryn Thomas at pick 8 in 2018, they did it with GWS-linked players Harry Himmelberg and Harry Perryman in 2015 and 2016.
So the Crows would actually be departing from their principles by ignoring 195cm left-footed forward Ugle-Hagan with the No.1 overall pick.
But Adelaide is also very aware of the climate it will bring players into and the years of development they are likely to need.
Whoever they take won’t be Matt Rowell, a man-child ready to rock and roll from Round 1.
For many players becoming the No.1 selection is a poisoned chalice that adds pressure, with Brendon Goddard revealing that insults hurled his way by Brad Green about him being the worst No.1 pick of all time in the Herald Sun this week.
When Adelaide selected Patrick Dangerfield at pick 10 over Brad Ebert in 2007, the nephew of SA footy legend Russell, the headline in the Adelaide Advertiser was that Dangerfield had better be good.
The first line of that story reads: “The pressure is already on Crows recruit Patrick Dangerfield”, with the warning that “Dangerfield, 17, is already in the firing line” given Adelaide’s recent draft crimes.
Adelaide is a two-town fishbowl where the No.1 pick has a outlandish set of expectations placed upon him.
The Crows are well aware that bringing 200cm ruck-forward Riley Thilthorpe or 196cm athletic forward Logan McDonald as the No.2 pick is an important difference to lauding him in the same manner as No.1 overall pick Jack Watts.
Just as relevant is the fact that for all their junior heroics, McDonald and Thilthorpe might take 3-5 years to flourish and don’t need the badge as the No.1 pick hanging over their heads.
For every Aaron Naughton or Ben King there are dozens more talls taken in the top 10 who have taken years to fulfil their potential.
The final reason Adelaide should bid for Ugle-Hagan is because it’s the right thing to do for the competition’s integrity.
Too often clubs are allowed to wait until late in the top 10 to select father-son and NGA prospects because of side deals or the reluctance of clubs to call out a rival player until it is patently obvious they have drifted too far down the order.
Some clubs are traditional bidders, like Adelaide and Richmond.
In the ultimate sliding doors moment, Richmond bid on Matt Kennedy (GWS), then Eric Hipwood (Brisbane), before eventually getting Daniel Rioli at pick 15 in the 2015 national draft.
Rioli won three flags and Kennedy has just been delisted, to be rookie-listed next week.
Adelaide bid on Himmelberg with the next pick — GWS matched it — then secured future Crows captain Tom Doedee with the No.17 selection.
Five years on bidding on Ugle-Hagan would be a similar win-win that eases pressure on their new key tall and maintains the integrity of the draft system.
CROWS DROP BIG HINT ON NO.1 PICK
- Simeon Thomas-Wilson
Adelaide’s list for who it will select with the No.1 draft pick is down to four, as senior coach Matthew Nicks says the Western Bulldogs’ access to Jamarra Ugle-Hagan won’t deter the Crows from bidding on the highly-rated prospect.
The Crows hold the No.1 pick for the first time in their history, but won’t be able to end up with the player widely considered to be the best in the draft pool with Ugle-Hagan tied to the Bulldogs through their Next Generation Academy.
Who the Crows take with the coveted pick, which could end up being the second pick of the draft if they bid on Ugle-Hagan and the Bulldogs match as expected, looks to be down to either one of the highly rated talls Riley Thilthorpe from West Adelaide or Logan McDonald from West Perth.
Adelaide’s national recruiting manager Hamish Ogilvie told the Crows website there were four names the club had identified a week out from the draft.
“We haven’t made a decision yet as we’re still waiting on some medical information,” he said.
“We’re down to four and we won’t make a decision until we’ve got all the information in case there’s something in there, but it’s pretty routine information required.
“It’s just a bit later than normal because of the constraints that everyone’s had this year with medical testing, combine testing, location, travel, doctors not having access to put their hands on the players, so that just made it more difficult and took more time.”
Along with McDonald and Thilthorpe boyhood Crows fan Elijah Hollands is also considered to be in the mix to be selected by the Crows with the first pick.
But he is recovering from a torn ACL and could not be back to full fitness until June.
Ugle-Hagan is part of that quartet even though the Bulldogs can match a bid for him.
Nicks said that wouldn’t matter.
“We’ll pick the best player we believe that’s in the draft,” Nicks said on SEN.
“If that’s Ugle-Hagan – because he is a super-talented footballer – then that’s where I guess a bid will come on him because we believe he should be No.1 in the draft.
“We’re not going to go out of our way to pick a young kid who’s not that and risk not getting the best player in the draft.”
The Bulldogs further bolstered their hand to match any bid for Ugle-Hagan on Tuesday, trading their pick 26 to GWS for selections 29 and 52 - increasing their draft value by 170 points.
Nicks said he was confident in the Crows recruiters ahead of one of the biggest decisions for the club.
“It’s not just the last 12 months, they have been watching these players for years leading in,” he said.
“They will bring that information through and I will watch as much as I can... but you have to be a bit mindful as a coach that you don’t dominate the conversation.”
Nicks faced a baptism of fire in his first season as the Crows senior coach, going without a win until Round 15.
But he said the two wins that followed that, and the performance of some younger Crows when they took the opportunities presented to them had given him optimism going into 2021.
“We lost Rat (Rory Atkins) during the year (when he left the club), that was an interesting scenario how that played out,” Nicks said.
“But what that did Rat moving on it actually gave an opportunity for others to step up.
“(We said) OK Atkins is gone, (Lachlan) Sholl is going to get that opportunity to play that wing role, how do you think he will go?
“And he went really well, and now we look at the potential and upside that he is going to show.
“What you are see is these young guys grow who haven’t had the opportunity.”
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