‘Take the punt’: Shock Bailey Smith AFL draft scenario amid Dogs-Cats stalemate
Bailey Smith’s Western Bulldogs exit has set up a potentially rare scenario that could deliver a shock result as Geelong’s offer hits a stalemate.
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Geelong’s negotiations with the Western Bulldogs over Bailey Smith have reportedly hit a hurdle, in a stalling that if left unresolved, could see the star enter the AFL draft in an ultra-rare scenario.
Out of contract and having nominated Kardinia Park as his preferred home in 2025, Smith’s value has being hotly debated by the two clubs - with the Cats allegedly adamant his current value sits at no more than a first-round pick.
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Speaking to Fox Footy’s Trading Day on Tuesday night, Jay Clark provided an update on the official stance of each club at the close of day two of the trade period, and why there is such a variation in their starting points for a negotiation.
“The Dogs want more than the Cats’ first-round pick for Bailey Smith,” Clark begun by saying.
“That’s based on his 2021 form, he’s an elite athlete and highly marketable. His football in 2021 was scintillating, but the Cats are on the other side of the trade table.
“They’re saying: ‘We want to give pick 17, and pick 17 only.’”
Taken at pick 7 himself in the 2018 AFL draft, Smith is a player with tremendous upside that at his best, is one of the competition’s best players.
However, an ACL injury that saw him miss the entire 2024 season has added a layer of uncertainty around his trade value - among other things, says Clark.
“If he went through to the national draft, the natural draft order will dictate that’s where he would go - pick 17, because which of the clubs are going to take the punt on Bailey Smith?,” Clark asked.
“There’s an elephant in the room here … it hasn’t been a perfect start to his AFL career. Yes, there’s been the ACL (injury), but also there’s been the mental health issues, which he’s been quite open about.”
Given his status as an out-of-contract player, a non-deal between Geelong and Western Bulldogs would almost certainly see Smith re-enter the draft pool at next month’s event - risking the possibility of another rival club acquiring his services before the Cats are able to make use of a selection.
And while that seems extremely unlikely given comments today from Geelong GM Andrew Mackie, it has happened before; albeit only a handful of times in the last 15 years.
“We have had a couple of chats with Sam Power (Western Bulldogs list manager); they have been held with good intent from both parties,” Mackie said on Tuesday afternoon.
Clark highly doubts Smith would be poached by a rival club before Geelong’s first-round pick this upcoming draft, in what would be an extraordinary risk for any team who dares.
“If he was to fall to the draft, the Cats would get him for nothing at pick 17, because who there on that list is going to take the punt on a bloke they wouldn’t even be able to interview?” Clark questioned.
CURRENT DRAFT ORDER
Pick 6 - Gold Coast
Pick 7 - St Kilda
Pick 8 - St Kilda
Pick 9 - Essendon
Pick 10 - Fremantle
Pick 11 - Fremantle
Pick 12 - Carlton
Pick 13 - Gold Coast
Pick 14 - Hawthorn
Pick 15 - GWS
Pick 16 - GWS
Pick 17 - Geelong
“Paul Connors manages him - you wouldn’t even be able to get a seat at the table with Bailey Smith (to discuss a shock recruiting).
“The Cats have been working on this for 18 months, so he would go to the Cats in the draft … it is clear to me that Geelong hold the upper hand.”
Trading Day host Ben Dixon played devil’s advocate however, suggesting that a club like St Kilda could (and should) take the punt in the highly unlikely scenario Smith does enter the draft.
“If I was St Kilda, I’d be taking the punt - and if you’re going into this draft period and you don’t want to upset a manger because you’re going to have future dealings with players and it’s going to affect your relationship, you’re in it for the wrong reasons,” Dixon stated.
“They’ve lost Seb Ross (delisted), they’ve got (Brad) Crouch who hasn’t played a lot of games (injured), they’re after (Jack) Macrae - Bailey Smith is sitting on a platter, and you can take him.
In the proposed instance where a trade for Smith cannot be agreed upon, the midfielder would need to essentially delist himself from the Bulldogs in order to be eligible as a player in this year’s draft.
In recent memory, Jackson Hately (2020), Jack Martin (2019), Jed Lamb (2013), Kurt Tippett (2012) and Nick Stevens (2002) stand out as moves via the pre-season draft of a similar nature to that hypothesised of Smith.
Originally published as ‘Take the punt’: Shock Bailey Smith AFL draft scenario amid Dogs-Cats stalemate
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