SuperFooty Round Table: Experts answer the biggest questions facing every AFL club for 2022
Who are the contenders and pretenders heading into the new AFL season? Our expert panel of the biggest names in the game answer the tough questions for every club.
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Who are the contenders and pretenders heading into the new AFL season? Our expert panel of the biggest names in the game answer the tough questions for every club.
The 2022 AFL season is only days away.
But a number of big questions remain as the countdown to Round 1 heats up.
Who are the true contenders? Which clubs, players and coaches are under the most pressure? Who is going to be stuck at the wrong end of the ladder?
To answer all these and plenty more, we’ve assembled an all-star panel of the biggest names in the game.
Footy’s back! Everything you need to know for 2022 is in the Herald Sun footy magazine. Click here for more details.
ADELAIDE
Kath Loughnan: Where’s the next stage of improvement for the Crows?
Nick Riewoldt: It is going to be organic, we know where Adelaide is at — they’ve gone to ground zero, they’re on the path of rebuilding, so you’re looking for incremental steps. I’d be most excited about (luring Darren) Burgess from the Demons, who is regarded as the best in the game to build a strong platform. Last year was a high pressure game they wanted to play (and) they surprised a few teams.
Mark Robinson: They were a mess two years ago off the field, and (that is) part of the organic growth. Burgess is one, they got Matthew Nicks reappointed for two years. Nine wins this year, are they capable?
Jordan Lewis: That role in … a young group who don’t know how to train hard or push their bodies, (so Burgess is) a big inclusion. Tex Walker was probably one of the surprise players of (last) season, his career was gone.
Robbo: They’ve got Thilthorpe, Himmelberg, how far the Crows can go this year might depend on those two grabbing the ball and kicking goals. Does Walker fit in?
Nick: Halfway through last year he was the All-Australian centre half-forward. Integrity in selection is important when you’re building culture, so if Walker’s form warrants it absolutely he plays. My concern for the Crows is at the other end of the ground — they got monstered last year by opposition key forwards. No Daniel Talia, Kelly’s gone, so you’re talking about kids having to play on the big monsters.
Kath: Can he (Walker) do it again?
Robbo: That depends on him — whether it is, ‘woe is me, I’ve got myself in a hole, everyone is going to be looking at me’, or, ‘you can all go and get stuffed, I’m going to get myself really fit, I’ve still got pretty good footy in me’.
Jordan: Last year was Thilthorpe’s first year, so you don’t get as much attention — Tex Walker primarily got the No. 1 defender, so if these other young kids come on in leaps and bounds and he’s playing as well, Tex might potentially get second or third. The question mark over Adelaide is do they have enough depth?
Kath: So what is a pass mark for the Crows?
Robbo: Seven wins last year, if they can go seven, eight or nine, that’s a pass.
Nick: I expect them to finish in the bottom four, but if you see the emergence of the kids, that’s what I’d be excited about, because they’re five years away from really contending.
Jordan: Around 17th, then you get another couple of top draft picks and set yourself up for long, sustained success.
BRISBANE
Kath Loughnan: Finished fourth last year but out in straight sets. What do you think they’ve taken from that finals series?
Robbo: I’m not negative on the Lions, they lost finals by one point and three points, and made a preliminary final. They got decimated last year in their forward line. Joe Daniher was a disappointment in the finals. When McStay and Hipwood went out, Daniher couldn’t get it done. Daniher is a good player with the other two in the team, (but) Brisbane lost their forward structure going into the finals. Harris Andrews carried a knee (injury) all last year. They had some excuses but it’s a win-loss industry.
Nick Riewoldt: They almost got there before their time. Jarryd Lyons is really the only player who is on the wrong side of his prime. Everyone else is either in a growth phase or in their prime, so I would expect them to continue to grow. You spoke about injuries to key personnel and Cam Rayner is a big one, he has got a lot of ability. Zac Bailey is a star in the making …
Robbo: Brisbane needs more speed in the midfield. Neale’s a great player; Lyons, McCluggage, (Jarrod) Berry, one-paced really good players. They need Bailey to become a 70-30 midfield-forward rather than 30-70.
NR: That’s where the improvement comes from. On expected scores against the Bulldogs they should have won by three goals, so accuracy really hurt. They walk away from the last two seasons with belief their window is wide open. 90 per cent of premiers over the past 10 years have had a really strong defensive profile and Brisbane weren’t quite there in the latter part of the season.
Jordan Lewis: Every final they’ve lost has been to the eventual grand finalists … so I think the messaging from Fagan and the coaches is, ‘hey, we’re still right in it’. I think Dan McStay is, bar Harris Andrews, probably their most important player. He anchors everybody — Daniher (and) Hipwood like to get up the ground … McStay is their best one-on-one forward if he gets himself deep. My question is with their midfield — the inclusion of Cameron Bruce as midfield coach will hopefully keep these guys accountable. When they got opened up in the finals there were question marks over how much they wanted to run the other way.
NR: We saw the way Melbourne bought into team defence — Brisbane needs to do that. That’s the missing link come September, when it’s all the little one percenters, they let themselves down at times.
KL: So a verdict on the Lions?
Robbo: Top four for me.
NR: Top two.
JL: Fifth.
CARLTON
Kath Loughnan: Is it more we want to see what Michael Voss does with this club or do we want to see how the players react?
Robbo: There’s a lot of focus on Michael Voss, which is probably unfair, but when you’re Vossy that comes with the territory. If Michael Voss can win a premiership with Carlton, it will be a bigger accomplishment than what he did as a player. He won the Brownlow Medal, he was a three-time premiership captain, two-time best-and-fairest winner in premiership years.
Nick Riewoldt: I disagree with you …
Robbo: He says it’s a lot more difficult … when you’re a player, when there’s issues on the field, the truly greats go, ‘I’ll fix it, I’ll go and do this, I’ll do that’. Vossy had the ability to do that (but) when he went to Brisbane (as coach) he couldn’t do it.
NR: This is a team that has refused to defend. We would speak to David Teague, and every week it would be, “this is not how we want to defend”, which tells me the players didn’t take the message on board.
NR: Aaron Hamill has gone across — he was in charge of team defence at St Kilda last year, they were top six in the last part of the year. Michael Voss is a driver of culture (and) standards — how he coaches and how the players buy into that defensive mindset is going to dictate Carlton’s year. Charlie Curnow, is he going to stand up? Talent is not an issue, (but) will they buy in culturally to what Michael Voss demands?
Jordan Lewis: The criticism has been the same people were getting dropped and senior players who weren’t performing were staying in, so you could imagine inside the football club what that creates. Usually when you go to a team as a new coach there’s not much talent, (but) this side has it.
KL: Will we judge (Voss) harsher, given the list he’s inheriting?
JL: I still think he needs time, because you’ve got these players who have been there for 10 years, two years … so there will be teething issues. Handling all this cultural stuff and players playing a specific way with the expectation externally is going to be tricky.
Robbo: He’s not the messiah, he’s going for a second chance at coaching and he’s going to be better off this time around.
NR: Coming into a season this is what we as critics love — a storyline that can go two ways.
KL: If you’re a Blues fan, what would you be happy with this year?
JL: Finals.
Robbo: I picked them to finish eighth.
NR: That’s the expectation.
COLLINGWOOD
Robbo: It was an interesting year to watch Collingwood from afar. They were decimated down the back. If they get their back six back, which is Roughead, Maynard’s signed, Moore, who will re-sign, Quaynor is going to be a really good player, I think they’ve got the genesis of a really good back six. I still worry about where they’re going to get their goals from though.
Jordan Lewis: Where Collingwood fell away is how they move the ball. Last year when they had chances to use the corridor they’d automatically go wide. The coaching was wrong, they were so safe.
Nick Riewoldt: I think the greatest challenge for Craig McRae initially is going to be to get the senior players understanding their purpose. We’re talking about a really top-heavy group of talent that falls away pretty quickly. They can’t win the premiership, clearly. Pendlebury, Sidebottom, they’ve been contending really, really recently, so if the results start to go against them, how do the senior players flip their purpose and mindset to be almost mentors for that next group to win one?
Robbo: If they don’t flip their mindset, they won’t get a game.
NR: It’s hard to do, Robbo. I lived it … It’s a challenge when you’ve been there and all you’ve known is contending year after year to then accept this isn’t going to happen for me any more. For a senior player, it does take time.
JL: A lot of the conversations and articles have been off field. It’s time for the whole building to reset and create stories from a performance point of view, on field.
Kath Loughnan: It’s all got to be about Jordan De Goey in the lead-up to round 1 as well.
Robbo: Jordan De Goey, fair dinkum, he has wasted his career with his talent. He can do that, it’s his life, but he’s on his last chance. He wouldn’t be at Collingwood if he didn’t have the talent. I’ll tell you another thing, I’m very surprised Collingwood have appointed Scott Pendlebury as captain. He’s going to be a leader anyway. If there’s no one else there maybe, but I thought Adams had done enough in recent years on the field and leading by example.
NR: There is a purge at Collingwood over the last couple of seasons, so just having that one little pillar of stability in Scott Pendlebury for one year, while you’re going through the transition of coaching, I understand why they’ve done it.
Robbo: Assassin, what do you think?
JL: I think it’s the right move. It just buys them a little bit of time when it’s a season that could go pear-shaped in terms of performance because they have got a lot of change.
ESSENDON
Kath Loughnan: How exciting and pleasantly surprising were they last year in Ben Rutten’s first year solely in charge? You have the feeling there are going to be better and better in 2022.
Jordan Lewis: They play an exciting brand of football. They play an honest brand, so the young kids they drafted in, especially the big three who came through, they all buy in. You can tell Rutten being a defender will be heavy on defence but it doesn’t disallow them to be offensive and a threat. The midfield, in particular, their spread and their pop from a contest was probably nearly better than anyone in the competition except for Melbourne.
Robbo: Essendon is an exciting team. What does that mean when it gets to finals? They’re too small. Essendon has got to toughen up. When the rain came in the first final against the Western Bulldogs they collapsed. OK, it could be a mindset thing. They’ve got Shiel, Caldwell coming back, Merrett, Parish, McGrath, they’re really quite small. So their first-draft pick this year (Ben Hobbs) is a bit of a midfield bull, which they needed. I don’t know if they’ve got a team to challenge for the flag just yet. They need a couple of bigger bodies.
Nick Riewoldt: Career year for Jake Stringer? Are you confident that he can reproduce?
Robbo: Yeah, I am, because he’s got a different mindset. I heard him once say, “well I’ve only got three kids”. I don’t care how it dawns on you that you need to play good footy, as long as it dawns on you.
KL: But you wonder, was he playing for that contract last year and now that he’s got the contract …?
Robbo: Well maybe. If Jake’s career ended today how would you describe his career?
NR: Enigmatic.
Robbo: Wasted?
NR: He won a premiership. They need him to be good. My concern about Essendon is the forward line. Hooker was a presence for them last year. No longer there. So can Peter Wright and Harrison Jones stand up?
Robbo: Jones put on 12kg over the past two years, so he’s looking really big. Zach Reid’s the other one. He’s a kid, he’s put on 10kg. Where are they going to slot these people? Reid probably back? Where does Michael Hurley play if he’s fit? Down back?
KL: What’s the verdict on Essendon?
NR: Midfield depth off the charts. I love their system. They’ve learnt the right way through Ben Rutten. They looked really good at the back end of last year.
FREMANTLE
Kath Loughnan: They’re another club showing great promise under Justin Longmuir. They need to be a lot more consistent and stop teasing us.
Jordan Lewis: They’ve been decimated through injury through their back half but they’ve actually maintained the team’s solid defence really well. I think that’s been two years in the process. At the back end of the year we started to see the fruits of a little bit more training in pre-season to get that offensive stuff down pat.
KL: What do they do with Nat Fyfe?
JL: I would play him 70 per cent forward. I think 50, 60 goals a year.
Robbo: He doesn’t kick goals. This is the problem.
JL: His accuracy last year was horrendous. If they go, no you’re a genuine forward this year, for us, maybe it plays on his mind and he puts a little bit more time into his accuracy. He could be the difference to them playing finals if he plays forward.
KL: You don’t know how much longer he’s got left as captain, so why not get him out of the midfield and give the brains to Brayshaw, Serong and Darcy?
Robbo: Fyfe kicked 6.21 last year. The year before 10.6.
Nick Riewoldt: I think they’re on the right track. So 2020, defensively they were really hard to score on, they couldn’t move the ball, 2021 it flipped. They were smashed by injuries in their defensive half last year, they get those guys back in and they’ll be really hard to play against.
Robbo: They’ll be pushing finals and I think Sean Darcy will be in the All-Australian forward squad. He’s clearly the best young ruckman coming through.
NR: Bubble of the finals for me, right on the cusp.
JL: I think from that 7-9. Their game plan is solid.
Robbo: I think it’s an opportunity for them to say, ‘we’re throwing Fyfe back in the midfield. He’s not a forward, we can’t rely on him. We’re going to use him as a gut-busting midfielder to replace Cerra and we’re going to develop around him, Brayshaw and Mundy in the midfield and find some more forwards’.
GEELONG
Kath Loughnan: Bad loss in the preliminary final, where are the Cats at?
Nick Riewoldt: They will be there again. A lock for 14-plus wins. Geelong still has so much talent. We’ll see some tinkering. Some assistant coaches coming in, maybe a change to the game style that’s served them so well but hasn’t been able to get them over the final hurdle. Their season starts in September. To put the cherry on top of the cake, it’s such a long wait. It doesn’t really matter until we get to September.
KL: And that’s where the players’ mindsets are at the moment.
Jordan Lewis: When you’ve been a September organisation, the mental battle is pre-season, the first part of the season when you try to bank the wins and get your game in good order, back half of the season is when those (finals) thoughts start to creep in again. There’s certain things that went wrong last year. The Stewart injury hurt them so much off half-back. They were a different side and had to throw Gary Rohan into defence. There’s something in that. I thought he provided some bounce off half-back when Stewart went down. If they are going to improve and tinker with their game plan, for me, it’s off half-back and not rely on Stewart so much. If Rohan plays a percentage at half-back it opens them up and makes the ball movement more exciting.
Robbo: I don’t think he’s the answer.
JL: He’s not the total answer, but it’s incremental. You’ve got to find little wins.
Robbo: Is anyone curious that about half their assistant coaching staff (Corey Enright, Matthew Scarlett, Matthew Knights) walked, for whatever reason? If I’m talking to Chris Scott, that’s my first question.
NR: Fascinating. It’s a refresh and I think it’s really good timing. However it went down, I think it could be a real win for them. It’s fresh voices, potentially new ideas, they might stumble across something that gets them over the line.
Robbo: They’ve already changed. They got rid of line coaches.
NR: They have. They are trying to get in front of the game.
KL: You can tinker as much as you like, but where do we sit with the age debate?
JL: If you compare Geelong with the majority of the competition, we see them making finals. If you compare them with the benchmark, which is Melbourne, they are a fair way off.
Robbo: The Cats are my big slider. Could not find room in the eight.
NR: What? That’s a big call. I’m banking them for 14 wins. Cameron missed big chunks, so did “Danger”, they missed Stewart at the wrong time of the year, Duncan was out for a big part of the year. I still think there’s too much class on that list. They win at home, they always have, I can’t see that changing.
GOLD COAST
Kath Loughnan: Crucial year for Stuart Dew in the final year of his contract. There was improvement last year, but it was groundhog day.
Robbo: Every year we ask if the kids are going to stand up in games. Now there’s the pressure on Stuart Dew, with Clarkson out and Buckley, if he reckons he can coach again, and others.
NR: How hot will it become if round 5 they are 1-4.
Robbo: It will be a big story because that’s what we do in the media. There’s a lot of questions on who will stay, but the one question is, when will this club stand up. When will the playing group stand up? When will the off-field group give them an environment where they can produce consistent football?
NR: It’s gotten worse. How do you let a player like Hugh Greenwood leave? There was talk of getting more depth, more grunt through the midfield. Hugh Greenwood was a shining light for them last year and now he finds himself in North Melbourne colours. Good on North Melbourne.
Robbo: It’s not all the Gold Coast’s fault there. They would have spoken to him, but there are loopholes in the rules.
KL: Matt Rowell is still there. Are you concerned about how he’s going to go?
JL: Let’s hope he’s injury free. Noah Anderson showed some real improvement in his game. Obviously Touk Miller was the standout. Rowell’s a funny one. There was hype after four or five games in his first season, then for whatever reason, not playing, injuries, he didn’t get a good run at it. As a young player in pre-season you need to back up session after session. Unfortunately, with Greenwood out, there’s pressure on him to perform.
Robbo: He came back from a shoulder reco last year and he wasn’t the same player. He was almost a bit hesitant.
JL: That can happen when you are not playing game after game.
Robbo: They need to start winning and winning on the road.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Kath Loughnan: They’ve named three captains — Toby Greene, Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly — what do we think?
Jordan Lewis: I don’t like it. They are trying to deflect what is obviously an issue with Coniglio as captain. Why have the captain of the football club if he’s not right for the job? If you want him to concentrate on his own performance, that’s fine. Have the adult conversation, deal with the embarrassment for two weeks, then everyone moves on. To have three captains drags on the conversation throughout the year.
Nick Riewoldt: Didn’t like it. I understand trying to back your guy in and keeping your confidence level high. But I think it’s a missed opportunity because the team took the persona of Toby Greene when he was captain last year. Despite the suspension at the start of the season, I would have made Greene captain. Let’s play with an edge, sometimes it’s going to spill over, but that side walked taller with Greene as their captain.
KL: Have they almost done Coniglio a disservice?
JL: I’d imagine if you are captain and you lose that position the hunger is so bad to perform the next year. If you are captain and surrounded by two other captains, you feel like you are sheltered, you are being looked after. The hunger he would have got from losing the captaincy and being able to perform would have been greater than sheltering him.
Robbo: They should have ripped the band-aid off.
KL: Could you have given it to Toby Greene on his own? With his track record?
NR: Absolutely.
JL: Of course.
Robbo: Let’s talk about on-field. Made the finals against most people’s thinking. Fantastic coaching performance from Leon Cameron. He’s revitalised again. He’s got a young back group, like Taylor and co. Some are good, better than good. Phil Davis. Sorry mate. Thank you so much for your career but it’s over.
NR: For the first time in their history, no churn of players. They were savaged by injuries (last year), so an incredible performance by Leon Cameron and his players.
Robbo: Leon Cameron is looking OK for a while, but I reckon they employed their next coach recently: James Hird.
NR: Whoa, Robbo!
Robbo: James Hird is not getting back into football to be a part-time leadership person. James Hird wants to coach AFL football again. That’s not a scoop, it’s my opinion. They have a ready-made coach when Leon Cameron is ready to go.
KL: If you are head of the club are you interested in James Hird as senior coach?
NR: Yeah. We all know how his time at Essendon ended, but prior to that he was spoken about in glowing terms.
Robbo: Leon Cameron is coaching really, really well. He deserves to coach this year and maybe a couple more years. But, if it hits the fan, they’ve got a person there.
HAWTHORN
Sarah Jones: A new era for the Hawks, how quickly can Sam Mitchell get this team to be a finals contender?
Leigh Montagna: What’s Sam Mitchell trying to achieve with this Hawthorn list? Is he trying to rebuild? Or is he trying to play finals straight up? The platform has been laid. At the back end of last season they came home, defeated the Dogs, Brisbane and Sydney, plus drew with Melbourne. They are strong defensively. With a sprinkling of Sam Mitchell innovation and creativity they could be knocking on the door of the top eight this year.
David King: I don’t agree. Life after Clarkson will be incredibly difficult. This is a win-loss industry, so if you are not rebuilding, what are you doing? It could be a disadvantage to lurk around no-man’s land, between 6th and 12th. There’s reasons why they can be better, but what’s better?
LM: I can’t see them bottoming out. They have one of the most exciting young backlines in the competition. Already an elite intercept marking team, you get a full season out of Jiath, Sicily is back, Day and Grainger-Barras are going to be absolute stars …
Robbo: Their back six is not the issue. I’d like for Sam Mitchell to work out whether Tom Mitchell getting 35 is great for that team. Can Worpel and Mitchell work together? How does Worpel go from a B&F winner and fall away like he has?
DK: In Tom Mitchell’s best years he was a clearance winner, starting the chains for the Hawks. He was averaging seven clearances a game, No. 1 in the competition, now he’s back to 4.5, which is outside the AFL top 25. That’s a big drop. Worpel the same. When he won his B&F he was in the top 10 contested players, now he’s outside the top 60.
LM: That’s what I want to see from Sam Mitchell, how he can get that mix right. Does Wingard play in the midfield, or do they make him one of the best half-forwards. He had a great year last year. He was one of the top three mid-forwards.
Robbo: OK, so who kicks their goals?
LM: Gunston is a 30-40 goalkicker, Luke Breust is a 30 to 40 a year goalkicker, he had a great year last year. And because of the exposure Koschitzke kicked 27 goals, Dylan Moore kicked 27 goals. Wingard can kick 25 goals on his ear. The midfield mix is going to be their challenge.
DK: I want to see how Sam wants this team to play. What’s the ball movement look like? Is he a defence-first coach or is he an offensive coach? Will he coach like he played or the complete opposite?
SJ: The pressure will be on following Clarkson. The verdict?
LM: 12th. At some stage we’ll be talking about them making the eight. I don’t think they are a bottom four side.
DK: Seven wins last year, I’ve got them 16th. They need to push game into the young kids.
Robbo: 14. You can rebuild and still try to win games.
MELBOURNE
Sarah Jones: The new superpower is the reigning premier, Melbourne. The question is, have the Dees got more to give?
David King: I think so. It comes off the back of Max Gawn and what he’s been able to do with his leadership. We all talked about the shift from personal reward to team success. They have all shared in that. No one is talking down what Petracca and Oliver have been able to do. They are the best one-two punch in the competition. There’s no talent issue, there’s no structure issue because they are ahead of the game with what they’ve done defensively. I just think this group has a thirst for more. They are not just happy with one flag. I think they are going to be like Hawthorn. They want more.
SJ: How big is the quest to do it at the MCG in front of the members and the adoring faithful?
Robbo: Football is about real motivation and fake motivation. I listened to Max Gawn 24 hours after the game and he said, “we’ll do it in front of our fans at the MCG next year”. I thought you don’t have to look for motivation next year, you’ve got it. I’m not on social media a lot these days, but the Demons players are everywhere. I wonder if a different coach from a different era would say, ‘hey boys, wind it back in’.
Leigh Montagna: You are a hard man.
Robbo: Life’s hard. Anyway, Luke Jackson, what level will he go to?
LM: That’s what’s scary. All the big guns are in the sweet spot. But then you look at the upside from Spargo, Pickett, Sparrow, Rivers, Harrison Petty, James Jordon, Luke Jackson and Jake Bowey, they’ve still got so much upside. It’s a dynasty. They will be around the top of the table for the next three, four, five years.
Robbo: How do you beat them? Is there a weakness?
LM: Because their structure is so sound, you need to be good at all facets. You have to be very good at contest and clearance to match their bulls, you have to take your opportunities in the front half because May and Lever are going to stop so many forays and you have to be strong defensively.
DK: The problem they’ve got is when you are so good the competition is looking to pick you apart. Look at what’s happened to Richmond over the past 18 months. But the problem you’ve got with Melbourne is their ability to punish. When they win the ball back, their ability to get it on the scoreboard is better than anyone else. We don’t talk enough about Bailey Fritsch. He was the best target in the league. I don’t know where you start in terms of picking them apart, but if you are a Melbourne fan, get on board, get excited.
Robbo:I think they’re on board.
DK: And don’t worry about social media. They should be congratulated for the way they have celebrated.
SJ: Verdict:
Robbo: No. 1 for me.
LM: They will be playing in a preliminary final to make a grand final. I’ve got them second.
DK: They’re in the top four, that’s all we need to worry about.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Sarah Jones: Have they been able to plug the holes on their list?
David King: I’m not too concerned about the list, but if you keep finishing last it should be OK. Jason Horne-Francis is going to be a topliner, he’s ready to play round 1 and he’ll be the leader of this midfield in … call it 40 games. They’ve got a great group coming through — (Jy) Simpkin, LDU (Luke Davies-Uniacke), Tarryn Thomas, Tom Powell, Will Phillips — there’s enough to start spilling towards the edges. Can David Noble climb up the ladder with this group? They’re one of the poorest teams with the ball, the poorest team without the ball, a really ordinary clearance team, so (what is) their point of difference? That’s what ’22 is about, seeing where David Noble is as a coach.
Leigh Montagna: What part of their game are we going to say ‘they’re focusing on team defence, or ball movement?’ I want to see what David Noble (does) with the veterans — is he going to rely on (Todd) Goldstein as the No. 1 ruck or is he going to give more opportunities to the young rucks? Is it (Hugh) Greenwood and (Ben) Cunnington in the centre bounces or (will) he give the young midfielders more opportunities?
Robbo: When they started their rebuild it was ‘let’s get midfielders and work from there’, but that profile is very ordinary. You say ‘can they get one area?’ but they have to fix five areas.
LM: You’ve got to start with one, you can’t do it all at once.
DK: It can look like this for 12 months (but not) 24 or 36 months. I want to see whether Nick Larkey is the man, because that’s the most important component of this rebuild. You’re building the midfield, but Nick Larkey, the start of last year was really ordinary, his back end was really good. Callum (Coleman)-Jones gives support in the ruck and forward. Expect Goldstein and (Tristan) Xerri to play forward at the start to see if they can get something else out of the ruck.
Robbo: (Robbie) Tarrant will be a huge loss, he’s been their key defender for 10-12 years. I had doubts on Ben McKay but he was pretty solid last year in defence. They’ve got some holes to fill but I like their depth of midfield.
SJ: Verdict? Are they heading up?
Robbo: Bottom three.
DK: It’s not about how many wins, it’s about showing they’ve got scope for the future. It’s been 15 years since they finished top four and that’s what this rebuild is about. So can you give a three to four-year program, give these guys something to aim at?
PORT ADELAIDE
Sarah Jones: They had a brilliant season in 2021 and a nightmare preliminary final. Where do they sit?
Leigh Montagna: Don’t overreact to that preliminary final loss. Their window is right open to win a premiership. If you look at the last two seasons, taking out the prelims, they’re 33 wins, eight losses. They haven’t done a lot wrong. Their profile’s in great shape. They play the right way, a front-half game, a strong contest team, they defend well.
David King: I think that was as timid a 30 minutes to start a prelim final as I’ve seen. I think that can scar you. They’ve had the perfect opportunity the last 24 months, with home finals, the competition being thrown into chaos, but they’ve had the luxury of home prelim finals.
Robbo: I don’t think it’s scarring, I think it’s motivation. I think Port has a real issue with Charlie Dixon. Todd Marshall or Georgiadis have to take the next step because when it gets to finals it’s as though everyone collapses. Charlie kicked two goals when they were slaughtered, didn’t kick any the week before. Georgiadis has played 28 games and kicked 40 goals, he’s only a kid. Marshall’s the one — 55 games for 57 goals. It’s between one of those two to take the next step.
LM: I agree, Georgiadis, if he’s fully fit, will become that second key forward. I think Marshall and Finlayson, whoever’s in better form will have that third spot and the rest of their game is in really good shape, defensively with Aliir back there. Their window’s wide open this year.
DK: Finlayson’s a good pick-up because they only need a player to have a three-goal quarter in a final to shift the momentum. Zak Butters is only a matter of games from becoming their most influential player. This kid is a top-liner, he’s been sorely missed. He can go next level as a mid-forward. If Connor Rozee can become a contested-possession beast then I think they can go somewhere. But when you look at those north of 31 — Charlie Dixon, Tom Jonas, Robbie Gray, Travis Boak — they can’t keep playing at the same level.
LM: I’m still pretty confident they’ll be playing in a prelim, probably a home prelim again.
Robbo: Top four.
DK: I’ve got them in seventh. I think it’s on a really tight timeline, this premiership opportunity.
RICHMOND
Sarah Jones: Have they fallen off the cliff? Are they just hanging in there? Are they going again?
David King: I called it “Glitchmond”. Last year was just a glitch. They had a horrible run with injuries. Teams started to play differently against them and then when Dusty went down their year was over. The new-look “Slim Dusty”, we’ve seen him in the midfield a couple of years ago when he put together the best season together we’ve seen since Leigh Matthews. I’m really strong on Richmond bouncing back.
Robbo: That small-forward game they had has disappeared on them. I’ve been told Hardwick and Co are tweaking their game plan because of the stand rule. I’m not as bullish about Richmond. I think 30-plus, motivation, I don’t think it’s there. I think they’re old champs relying on ‘we can still do it’ and I don’t think they can.
Leigh Montagna: You spoke about Hardwick, that’s evolution. They were the team hardest hit by injury last year. If they get their back six or eight, with that continuity, that’s what they need. The way they play stacks up, so the question is the motivation. Everyone talks about Geelong’s dynasty from 2007-11. They won three flags. In 2013 they lost a prelim by five points, so they were still there. The Hawks between 2012 and 2015 played in those grand finals. In 2016 they still finished top four. So the teams don’t fall off a cliff when you’re in a dynasty.
Robbo: Tom Lynch, post premiership, has been extremely disappointing for a man of his talent. I think Jack’s what 33? He’ll compete but they’ve got to move on from him. Trent Cotchin was an absolute battering ram. I think his body’s in trouble. Cotchin and Lynch have fallen quite drastically.
DK: Cotchin, Martin, Lambert, Prestia and Edwards missed 39 games between them last year. They were running on fumes. They were asking lesser players to perform greater roles. Dusty being out there just lifts this group.
Robbo: Sixth for me.
DK: I’ve got them sneaking into the top four.
LM: Stats say every year there’s one team from outside the top eight that finishes in the top four. For me, it’s Richmond.
ST KILDA
Sarah Jones: Their list says they need to be challenging. Have they got enough?
Leigh Montagna: No. They’ve got a good list, Brett Ratten has them playing a good brand, they defend well when their defence is up and about, and they can move the footy. But is it good enough to beat the top four or five teams? I don’t think so. St Kilda needs everything going their way. They need (Rowan) Marshall and (Paddy) Ryder fit and healthy. When they play with confidence, they tackle and pressure and feed off energy, but when things get challenging, do they have enough resilience or on-field leadership to grind out wins?
Robbo: They haven’t shown (it) enough. When premiership teams are formed, the standout word is how unselfish they were. Is St Kilda unselfish enough?
LM: There’s phases of a player’s career where you’re trying to work out your own game and you’re focusing on yourself. St Kilda’s list build — players coming across from other clubs with big expectations, and players trying to get a game who have been injured — they haven’t got that cohesiveness where they’re playing selfless footy.
Robbo: Is (Bradley) Hill still trying to play to his contract rather than the team’s needs?
LM: That’s the club’s fault — they should be saying ‘you are a wingman, you find form and play your role’. They’ll win some really good games, I just can’t see them being better than these six or seven teams above them.
David King: This has the potential to be a house of cards — it could all come tumbling down. Max King can have a breakout third year. Tall forwards have. You’d expect he’d do more than 38 goals and 48 contested marks, but if he fails or has an average season, cracks are going to be exposed. They’ve written to the members in 2021. You don’t get that luxury again. This is a huge start to the season.
Robbo: I think there’s going to be off-field drama at St Kilda if they don’t perform on the field. Deck of cards is a good, strong line. If Marshall and King can be formidable … the talls can take along a team. Marshall has to play 22 games.
LM: Jade Gresham is their X-factor. He can be their best player along with Jack Steele.
DK: Their first five rounds are against teams who failed to play finals in 2021. We’re going to know early.
SJ: Are they playing finals?
Robbo: No.
DK: I’ve got them 12th. I think this is a year of chaos for the Saints.
LM: I wanted to find a spot for them in the eight, I just couldn’t. I’ve got them 10th.
SYDNEY
Sarah Jones: The Swans took the competition by storm last year, finished sixth. The loss to the Giants in the finals was unexpected, but do they continue tracking up?
Leigh Montagna: Their improvement was huge. The reliance on Franklin — he had 50-odd goals in eight games — does that continue or do they need others to step up? The losses of Dawson and George Hewett are big blows. The Swans were almost the least affected with injury last year and those mid-tier players have still got upside — Heeney and Mills — but they still have veterans, with Rampe, Franklin and Kennedy. They’re going to play finals, not necessarily top two or four.
David King: I think they’re a contender. They’ve got the ball movement mastered and that’s a significant threat. The one thing that’s missing is contested possession. They were the 12th-ranked team last year. They’ve got the best group of under-23s in the competition — Errol Gulden, Braeden Campbell, Warner’s a superstar ready to break out, McInerney, Wicks, Logan McDonald. It’s just a matter of how quickly they can handle big bodies.
LM: Does Franklin still have to play a full season and kick 50‑plus goals if they’re going to win it?
DK: He’s not going to kick less than 30. I think you’re going to get more midfield minutes out of Heeney, which gives you more opportunity coming inside 50. The move of Mills into the midfield last year was a masterstroke.
Robbo: It was one of the moves of the season actually. Last year was extremely disappointing when they lost that first final. They had shown so much.
DK: I think there’s a breakout year for Justin McInerney. I think this young list can motivate the older brigade. They’ve got a 6-3 win-loss ratio against top-eight teams last year. That’s a really good start for this contention period.
Robbo: I think I made a mistake leaving Sydney out of my eight. They’re one of a bunch of teams, like Essendon, Richmond and Carlton, who can challenge for the finals. I don’t know if Buddy at 35, 36 can last all year.
DK: I’ve got them fourth or fifth. It doesn’t have to be Franklin winning the flag. What a celebration it’ll be when he becomes the sixth player to kick 1000 goals in the first two or three weeks.
LM: I’ve got them in the eight. I’ve just got this year as a bit of a plateau, consolidating year.
WEST COAST
Sarah Jones: We know they’ve underachieved in the past few years. They were really supposed to be knocking on the door of another flag and the Covid landscape with borders, it’s just going to be a potential nightmare to deal with for the entire year.
Leigh Montagna: You spoke about St Kilda, the house of cards. It could implode for the Eagles with all the Covid restrictions and some of the age of their group.
Robbo: They can’t stay in Western Australia, so they’ve got to pick somewhere to stay for the year.
David King: It’s only 70 games or so ago they won a flag and everyone’s down on them. Can they be like Carlton in 1995? They’ve got some older players, they look slow, but so did Carlton in 1995 and I think they only lost two games for the year.
LM: They’ve got 10 All-Australians on their list, they’ve got 16 premiership players, if you include Gaff and Naitanui, they still have the talent. They won it on efficiency with their ball movement and efficiency inside 50. As soon as that’s fallen away, their whole game has fallen away. Have they looked as hungry or as fit as other teams?
Robbo: They wouldn’t have signed Kennedy or Hurn if they’re not having another tilt.
DK: I don’t think they’ve been at the pointy end of the AFL’s elite fit for three to four years and that can come with success. Their midfield – Shuey, Yeo and Kelly – only played five games together as a trio last year. Put that three in the middle with Nic Naitanui in some sort of reasonable fitness and they are a huge threat.
LM: I’ve got them missing the eight. I just think it’d be a remarkable effort for West Coast to play finals with the year it looks like it’s going to be for them.
DK: I’m down on them more because of the Covid situation than I am their playing stocks. I think they’ll be around the eight but as soon as Adam Simpson he hits that button, watch them spiral. I think they’ll be between 10 and 14.
Robbo: Yeah 10 and 14. When he hits that button, I want to see who’s underneath.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Sarah Jones: The beaten grand finalists and Joey, you believe they’re going to slide.
Leigh Montagna: They’re a hard team to catch. I think they’re streaky. They get on hot streaks, whether it’s leading into a finals campaign, or the start of last year, where they look awesome, but then they have periods where they look just average. At the back half of last season, after the bye they went 5-5, they were mid-table with their contested ball, scoring and points against and the sliding doors moment was the semi-final win against Brisbane Lions. If they lose that game they lose four of their last five. I think Josh Bruce is a huge loss to help out Naughton, but where are their goals going to come from?
David King: I disagree. I think the Dogs are right in line for a dynasty opportunity. Look at this midfield when they’re fit and healthy. Adam Treloar missed nine games last year but when he was in for the first 10 weeks, their midfield was blowing teams off the park. Bailey Smith’s gone next level. They weren’t just No. 1 on clearances and the damage from clearance after round 10, they were No. 1 by the length of the Flemington straight. That group is just going to roll on again this season. Jamarra comes in, looks totally different to what we saw. Naughton’s going to go next level again.
Robbo: He’s the key. I put Naughton in my top 50. He’s an almost player for me.
LM: He kicked multiple goals in the first 10 games. On the run home, 11 of his last 15 games he kicked one goal or less, so he’s really streaky. He can look awesome.
DK: Only Tom Hawkins took more marks inside 50 last year and more contested marks inside 50. He’s in a pretty good bracket.
LM: Josh Bruce kicked more goals than him and played five less games.
Robbo: Second.
DK: I’ve got them second as well.
LM: I’m just going with half glass empty, but I’ve got them sixth to eighth.
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