The Phantom’s 2018 SuperCoach pre-season: Midfield time for mid-price forwards
FORWARDS who play in the midfield are like SuperCoach gold. So who are the young stars ready to make the move in 2018? The Phantom’s takes you through all the mid-price value in the forward line.
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FORWARDS who play in the midfield are like SuperCoach gold. So who are the young stars ready to make the move in 2018? The Phantom’s takes you through all the mid-price value in the forward line.
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THE MIDFIELD MOVE
Devon Smith (Ess) $439,100
Even with some injury issues, Smith’s numbers have always been good.
He played the half-forward role at the Giants superbly, averaging 80 or more points in four of his six seasons in the game.
Smith scored at least 90 SuperCoach points in nine of the first 13 games last season and, in another impressive run of form — the best of his career — he averaged 22 disposals, five tackles and 98 points as a 21-year-old between Round 11, 2014 and Round 8, 2015.
But, as good as some of those numbers are, Smith’s time as predominantly a forward looks set to come to an end.
Smith’s off-season move to the Bombers should see him transition into a full-time midfielder with the 24-year-old declaring this week that he would like to spend up to 70 per cent of game-time in the middle in 2018. This means an increase in numbers is almost inevitable.
Phantom’s Verdict: Lock him in, people.
Christian Petracca (Melb) $433,300
Over at the Demons, another highly talented forward is gearing up towards a greater midfield role in 2018.
Petracca, who has knocked 10 seconds off his personal best time trial over summer, has always been a midfielder-in-waiting, averaging 21 disposals, 13 contested possessions, two goals and 129 SuperCoach points over his TAC Cup junior career playing in the middle.
After a knee reconstruction wiped our his debut season in 2015, Petracca averaged 72 points in 2016, before increasing that number to 78 last season.
In 2017, Melbourne teased us with Petracca the midfielder as the 22-year-old attended 29 per cent of centre bounces, up from 7 per cent the previous year.
But the strongly-built Petracca, who, out of the top-80 targets, won the second-most offensive one-on-ones last year, behind only Patrick Dangerfield, is ready to increase that number again.
Expect to see the numbers Petracca posted in Round 23 last season — 23 disposals, 11 contested possessions and 105 points — on a more regular basis in 2018
Phantom’s Verdict: A breakout year is definitely on the cards.
THE YOUNG BLUES
Charlie Curnow (Carl) $408,100
Blues fan are excited. They’ve already dubbed 21-year-old Curnow the second-coming of club legend Anthony Koutoufides.
While The Phantom won’t quite go that far just yet, they should be excited.
In 2017, his second year in the game, Curnow made his mark as one of the best young key forwards in the game, averaging 92 SuperCoach points from Round 14 onwards.
During this period, the strong, athletic Curnow won more contested possessions than any other key forward and averaged 16 disposals and seven marks per game, while also booting 14 goals.
But the scary part for opposition teams is Curnow, just like Koutoufides, has the ability to play multiple positions.
A move up the ground into the midfield might not be too far away.
Now I’m excited, too.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Will be in SuperCoach teams for years to come but just how quickly does the spike come? If you hold off, you might miss it.
Sam Petrevski-Seton (Carl) $371,900
While the hype may not be quite as big, there is every chance we’ll see a spike in the exciting 19-year-old’s output in his second year.
Petrevski-Seton is on a modified training program, which is a concern only weeks out from the JLT Series, but the smooth-moving midfielder-forward missed most of last summer.
Yet it didn’t take him long to have an impact.
In Round 3, Petrevski-Seton tallied 17 possessions — 12 of them contested — eight tackles and 116 SuperCoach points before delivering a best-on-ground performance in his side’s victory over Collingwood in Round 7.
The No. 6 pick from the 2016 draft finished with 21 disposals, 10 contested possessions, two goals and 134 points, highlighting his enormous talent.
While there were a number of low scores — 11 of 60 or less — as expected in a debut season, Petrevski-Seton still scored 92 points or more in a further four games for the year.
Expect the gap between his best and worst to close significantly in 2018.
The Phantom’s Verdict: A risky selection but his dual-position helps. It could pay huge dividends if that gap closes quickly.
RORY THE RUCKMAN
Rory Lobb (GWS) $396,500
This man could’ve saved all of our Nic Naitanui-related ruck problems.
But no, there is no dual-position status for Lobb in 2018; he is available as a forward only.
However, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t consider picking him.
Shane Mumford is gone and, if he can overcome a groin complaint that has put him on a modified program over the pre-season, the No. 1 ruck role at the Giants is his.
And, given his history as a part-time ruckman in the past, this could bring an influx of points.
Since 2015, Lobb has a hitout-to-advantage rate of 33.6 per cent – the highest of all top-70 hitout winners in the competition.
Lobb showcased his potential as the No. 1 man in the finals last season. The 24-year-old took charge in the absence of Mumford in the semi-final against the Eagles, recording 11 disposals, 39 hitouts – 13 to advantage - and 108 SuperCoach points.
He backed it up the week later in the loss to the Tigers, finishing with nine disposals, 30 hitouts – 15 to advantage – and 129 points.
The Phantom’s Verdict: The numbers are telling but just where you fit him in remains the question.
THE FORGOTTEN MEN
Brett Deledio (GWS) $339,800
It really was a year to forget for Deledio in 2017.
After leaving Richmond, the 30-year-old managed only seven games, battling a calf injury for most of the season, and scored more than 64 points in just two of them.
To top it all off, his former side defeated his new side in the preliminary final on their way to a drought-breaking premiership.
But 2018 is a new year and with the departure of Nathan Wilson and injury to Zac Williams, there is a spot open for a smart, long-kicking half-back flanker, who makes good decisions.
Deledio is currently on a modified pre-season program given his history but, if his body holds up, it has his name written all over it.
The other concerning aspect is Deledio’s lack of leg speed, which is something the Giants might look to replace back there.
But, if he does get a chance, at $339k, Deledio provides plenty of value, given his scoring power.
Allen Christensen (Bris) $267,300
Remember this guy? I’ll forgive you if you don’t because he hasn’t played in the AFL since Round 11, 2016.
Christensen broke his collarbone in that game, before re-injuring it on the eve of the 2017 season.
And then, in his return game in the NEAFL, cracked the plate that was inserted to strengthen the area.
Talk about unlucky.
But he’s back and ready to play as much footy as his body will allow him through the pre-season.
The 26-year-old is in the leadership group and should feature through the midfield and at half-forward in 2018.
At $267k, the former Cat could prove to be one of the year’s best – although expensive – cash cows if he can replicate some of his scoring prior the injury.
In his final two years at Geelong in 2013 and 2014, the skilful Christensen averaged 93 and 91 in each year respectively before dropping to 85 in his first year at the Lions in 2015.
The Phantom’s Verdict: His price will sky rocket if he can average anywhere near those numbers in 2018.
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