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Champion Data examines the key KFC SuperCoach stats ahead of Round 9

What numbers should you know before making your Round 9 KFC SuperCoach trades? Champion Data looks at the key statistics for every match-up.

Fantasy Freako, Paul Dunn and Tim Michell
13 min read
July 29, 2020 - 8:36AM
Hot and cold players for Round 9 | KFC SuperCoach AFL

Western Bulldogs rising star Bailey Smith was one of the most-popular trade targets of Round 8 and delivered his fifth century of the season against Gold Coast.

The 19-year-old is enjoying a breakout campaign, averaging 91.1 points despite scoring three against North Melbourne in Round 5 when he suffered concussion.

Smith’s brilliant run, Andrew Gaff’s return to form and a quiet run for one of KFC SuperCoach’s most-popular defenders are in focus in this week’s Champion Data market watch.

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Jayden Short is averaging a career-high 95 KFC SuperCoach points.
Jayden Short is averaging a career-high 95 KFC SuperCoach points.

Bulldogs vs Tigers

Bailey Smith has reached 100 points in five of his seven full games – averaging a career-high 20 disposals and 91 points. Jayden Short has lifted his output this season – averaging a career-high 95 points.

Demons vs Power

Christian Petracca is averaging a career-high 130 points in wins this season – ranked 13th in the competition. Travis Boak is one of five Power players to average three figures in wins – averaging 109 – ranked third.

Blues vs Hawks

The points have dried up for Sam Docherty – scoring 49, 89 and 66 points in his past three games. James Sicily has dominated over this period – averaging 148 – ranked second in the competition.

Bombers vs Lions

Jordan Ridley is enjoying a breakout season – averaging three intercept marks and 110 points. Jarryd Lyons has taken his game to another level – averaging 114 points – ranked second at the Lions.

Kangaroos vs Crows

Todd Goldstein dropped below 100 points for the first time this season last round – managing just 69 points in the defeat to Carlton. Reilly O’Brien also posted a season-low score of the year against Essendon – scoring 86 points.

Hunter Clark was one of St Kilda’s best in its victory over Port Adelaide.
Hunter Clark was one of St Kilda’s best in its victory over Port Adelaide.

Saints vs Swans

Hunter Clark enjoyed a minor price rise last round after finishing with 103 points from a season-high 24 disposals. Jake Lloyd also posted a season-high point haul of 157 after collecting 34 disposals and five intercept marks.

Eagles vs Cats

Andrew Gaff bounced back last round after some indifferent performances – scoring 130 points – his second-highest score of the season. Mitch Duncan returned from injury against the Dockers and scored a season-high 148.

Suns vs Giants

Touk Miller was the second-ranked player on the ground last week against the Bulldogs with 26 disposals and 140 points. Josh Kelly had a blinder in the win over the Tigers – finishing with 26 disposals and 195 points.

Dockers vs Magpies

Rory Lobb finished with 19 disposals, one goal and 97 points against Collingwood in Round 11 last season. Brodie Grundy scored 121 from 21 disposals, six clearances and four tackles.

Champion Data’s Round 9 KFC SuperCoach preview.
Champion Data’s Round 9 KFC SuperCoach preview.

RAGE TRADES: SMITH’S FORM A CONCERN FOR OWNERS

Round 8 will be the last time we will see a traditional fixture for a while as we prepare for a frenetic period in KFC SuperCoach.

Unfortunately, that didn’t stop us having players we can’t wait to see the back of in our teams.

Here is who you should consider booting and buying before Round 9 kicks off on Wednesday night.

Sam Docherty hasn’t scored 90 in the past four rounds.
Sam Docherty hasn’t scored 90 in the past four rounds.

Boot Him

Sam Docherty Def 66 pts

Since his massive score against Essendon (185) he hasn’t been over 90 and this would be a massive concern for owners. He has had two scores of 89 during that run but this week’s 66 and his 49 against the Bulldogs have coaches asking questions. You may not want to completely move him out of your side, especially if you’re missing an uber premium such as Jake Lloyd in defence.

Tom Lynch (Rich) Fwd 35 pts

We have talked about Lynch and key forwards previously in this column — they are just too risky. Since Lynch broke his hand, he hasn’t been above 50 and he is leaking money fast. He is well below his starting price ($388k) and his fall hasn’t stopped yet. If you are one of the KFC Supercoaches that has been holding him in the hope of a form reversal, it’s time to bite the bullet.

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Marc Pittonet Ruc 53 pts

If you didn’t pull the trigger last week on the Blues big man, then you need to do it this week. Another poor score will result in him dropping further in value and it is making it even harder to get from him straight to one of the big three rucks — Gawn, Grundy and Goldstein. If you’re using him to make money at R3, he’s hurting your chances of getting a premium in another position.

Patrick Cripps Mid 75 pts

Cripps has only had one score over 85 in the last five weeks (116 in Round 5). This under-par run has come after he averaged 117 across the first three weeks of the season. He has been coming under a lot of attention and was tagged yet again this week, but if he is going to be susceptible to that tag we have to consider moving him on. The only downside is, you would be jumping off at a price below $500,000.

Jordan Dawson Def/Fwd 78 pts

We have had Dawson in this side of the column previously and our position hasn’t changed. There are still about 5 per cent of coaches that are holding the Swan although he has only delivered two scores of more than 85. We thought he may have turned a corner last week with a 93, but was back under 80 this week. He simply isn’t getting the role we expected roaming half back.

Travis Boak Mid 54 pts

After his blistering start to the season, Boak has now failed to hit 100 in his last three games with this being by far his lowest score. The Power weren’t good against the Saints but Boak wasn’t finding the footy with the ease he did early in the campaign. His BE is very high and he will lose money fast in coming weeks. Time to jump off the former Power skipper — look at someone like Clayton Oliver.

Devon Smith’s scoring has plummeted and he’s not going to be a top-six forward.
Devon Smith’s scoring has plummeted and he’s not going to be a top-six forward.

Devon Smith Fwd/Mid 49 pts

We had him on watch last week and this week our fears have been realised. Not only was this his fifth score under 100 in a row, it was also his lowest. It was his disposal efficiency that hurt his scoring, but having just 13 touches also didn’t help. His score is dropping and if you are to trade him out, do it now.

Brandon Starcevich Def/Mid 48 pts

There are nearly 50 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams that have persisted with Starcevich. There is a big choice to make. Do you keep him because he is getting a game every week or do you move him out and cash in what money he has made? Factor in his DPP status when making your call.

Zach Merrett doesn’t have a bye coming up and his price is climbing.
Zach Merrett doesn’t have a bye coming up and his price is climbing.

On Watch

Jye Simpkin Fwd/Mid 35 pts

Most KFC Supercoaches were happy to see him play after an ankle concern and any points were a bonus. But his lingering injury combined with being tagged by Ed Curnow, meant Simpkin’s score wasn’t up to scratch. We will give him a pass this week, but need him to return to normal scoring and fast. Keep an eye on him to see if that injury is still having an effect.

Zach Merrett Mid 135 pts

Merrett finally went over 100 after missing that mark for his last three games. His price is down and he missed his BE this week again (153). This will be about as cheap as he will be this season. If you have him in your upgrade plans you may want to look at him this week or next at the latest. It’s a bonus he won’t have a bye.

Tom Stewart Def 89 pts

Stewart returned from a broken collarbone and had a great score. His break even was very high at 194 going into this game. It will remain high for at least another week so just keep an eye on him and he could become very cheap in a couple of weeks and will be a very popular trade in at that time.

Mitch Duncan Mid 148 pts

Duncan also had a huge break even at 200 heading into this game and to his credit he had a good crack at achieving it. But he didn’t and his break even will remain fairly high for at least another week so he will drop in value again. Once that break even bottoms out be ready to pounce on the consistent Cat.

Tom Doedee's hamstring injury ended a hot run of KFC SuperCoach scoring.
Tom Doedee's hamstring injury ended a hot run of KFC SuperCoach scoring.

Injury Watch!

Tom Doedee Def 31 pts

Doedee came off in the third quarter with a hamstring problem and he didn’t return. Doedee had been on a fantastic fun lately and this will hurt those coaches that had brought him in recently. His BE will rise and his price will drop when he does return.

Seb Ross Mid 67 pts

Ross suffered a calf complaint in the last quarter and didn’t return. Calf issues are always a concern and we are yet to know the extent of it but just be ready to trade him out if it is revealed that he will miss weeks.

Brad Crouch Mid 15 pts

Crouch suffered a hamstring injury in the second quarter against the Bombers. He isn’t in a lot of teams, but this could mean a lot more footy for his brother Matt while he is out. Keep an eye on what this does to the Crows midfield.

Michael Walters Mid/Fwd 115 pts

Walters limped off the field in the last quarter against the Cats and it looked very much like a

hamstring injury. With the short turnaround between games coming up there is less chance he will be risked. You may need to look at trading him out if he is set to miss a couple of weeks as you will lose ground with a player worth in excess of $500,000 on your bench.

Touk Miller has flown under the radar in the opening eight rounds.
Touk Miller has flown under the radar in the opening eight rounds.

Buy Him

Touk Miller Mid 140 pts

Miller was averaging 110 to Round 8 but surprisingly was in less than 1 per cent of teams. He presents some value in midfield and if you want a unique that is going to help in a league match or overall rankings, Miller is your man.

Jack Macrae Mid 169 pts

Thursday’s score made it three weeks in a row for Macrae over 120 and this has put a smile on the faces of KFC Supercoaches that have him. He is quickly approaching his starting price ($668k) and will soon be well over it with scores like this. Now is the time if you want to bring him in.

Josh Kelly Mid 195 pts

Kelly has found himself on the never again list for many KFC Supercoaches due to his injury history, but he is starting to show why he shouldn’t be. He hasn’t dropped below 89 and this week had a massive score which was the second highest of the season behind Tim English’s 204. He was in just 12 per cent of teams at the start of the Round 8 and you can bet that will rise.

Clayton Oliver went big again in Melbourne’s loss to Brisbane Lions.
Clayton Oliver went big again in Melbourne’s loss to Brisbane Lions.

Jake Lloyd Def 157 pts

It was a massive week for Lloyd, who has been quietly going about his business for much of the season. After a low of 77 in Round 1, he hasn’t been under 100 since and this week being his best score. He is taking plenty of the kick outs and is doing the right thing for us by running out of the square to maximise his scoring. This score will cause a bit of a price spike so look to grab him now, or start making plans to nab him after his Round 11 bye.

Callum Mills Mid 110 pts

This made it four scores of 110 or more in the last five weeks for the star Swan. Mills is still enjoying greater freedom without Josh Kennedy and Isaac Heeney in the side.

Clayton Oliver Mid 177 pts

With all the talk around Christian Petracca and Jack Viney, it is Clayton Oliver who has largely slipped under the radar. He has had three games over 100 in a row. His price was at its lowest point prior to this week, but it won’t be this low for a while now with a 177 in his price cycle.

Josh Kelly was back to his absolute best in GWS Giants’ win over Richmond.
Josh Kelly was back to his absolute best in GWS Giants’ win over Richmond.

Top Scorers of the Round!

How many did you have in your side?

195 – Josh Kelly

177 – Clayton Oliver

169 – Jack Macrae

166 – Toby Greene

164 – James Sicily

Captain Scorecard

Who were the best captain choices for this week? Here we don’t look at the top scorers but the guys that were in consideration for the captain role this week.

A+: Josh Kelly 195, Jack Macrae 169, Max Gawn 157, Lachie Neale 152

A:

B: Lachie Whitfield 116, Dustin Martin 108, Tom Mitchell 104

C: Patrick Dangerfield 88, Marcus Bontempelli 87, Patrick Cripps 75, Todd Goldstein 69, Brodie Grundy 61

Roos youngster Kyron Hayden was a shining light against Carlton.
Roos youngster Kyron Hayden was a shining light against Carlton.

Rookie Watch

For this section we classify a rookie as anyone cheaper than $250k to start the season.

You may want to trade these guys in if you don’t have them yet

Caleb Serong 118 – Great score from Caleb in the wet. Look for him to now rise in value for

a few weeks on the back of this score.

Kyron Hayden 107 – Hayden has had a very up and down season, but made up for a concussion-affected seven last week with a ton against Carlton.

Will Hamill 96, Andrew McPherson 90, Mitchell Georgiades 86, Lachie Fogarty 76, Brad Close 74, Aiden Corr 74, Will Day 63, Elijah Taylor 60, Kane Farrell 61, Luke Jackson 56, James Bell 54, Tobe Watson 49

These guys are OK to hold as they made their BE and can still make more money

Darcy Cameron 92, Tyson Stengle 83, Shane McAdam 68, Lachlan Young 63, Brett Bewley 63, Noah Anderson 63, Jye Caldwell 62, Marlion Pickett 60, Keegan Brooksby 55, Izak Rankine 53, Jack Mahony 51, Sam Simpson 49, Lachlan Ash 47, Matthew Ling 47, Jake Aarts 46, Dylan Stephens 46, John Noble 46, Derek Eggmolesse-Smith 45, Ned Cahill 44, Harley Bennell 42, Darren Minchington 41, Sam Mayes 39, Brayden Ham 39, Callum Porter 39, Josh Morris 22, Kysaiah Kropinyeri-Pickett 22, Cody Weightman 14, Minairo Frederick 14, Atu Bosenavulagi 12

These guys need to be traded out after missing break evens this week

Dan Butler 87 (his BE was 155), Marc Pittonet 53, Max King 52, Brandon Starcevich 48, Lachlan Schultz 47, Curtis Taylor 37, Fischer Mcasey 31, Laitham Vandermeer 30, Tom Berry 29, Tom Williamson 28, Archie Smith 24, Chayce Jones 22, Ben King 20, Callum Moore 19

ROUND 8 REVIEW: KELLY, MACRAE HEADLINE HITS AND MISSES

Taggers are wreaking havoc in KFC SuperCoach, with popular picks Sam Docherty and Jy Simpkin feeling the pinch in Round 8.

Docherty was closely monitored by Jasper Pittard, posting 66 KFC SuperCoach points — his fourth consecutive score below 90.

Since a monster 185 in Round 4 against Essendon, the Carlton co-captain has posted 89, 49, 89 and 66, dropping from $577,600 to about $475,000.

Simpkin had Ed Curnow for company on Saturday and could only manage a season-low 35 points, 98 less than his break even and 22 less than he recorded when injured last round.

The star Roo, who could get attention from Ben Keays next round, had a season-low 11 disposals and four tackles against Carlton.

It hasn’t been a round of negatives, with big guns Josh Kelly (195), Jack Macrae (169), James Sicily (164), Jake Lloyd (157) and Nick Haynes (129) firing.

These are the hits and misses of Round 8:

Josh Kelly dominated against Richmond, scoring 195 KFC SuperCoach points.
Josh Kelly dominated against Richmond, scoring 195 KFC SuperCoach points.

HITS

— Josh Kelly (195): Talk about a return to your absolute best. Kelly’s best score of the campaign was 122 before he monstered Richmond with 26 disposals and eight tackles. His score was another sign the dominant players will be handsomely rewarded in games of few highlights.

— Jack Macrae (169): KFC SuperCoach's No. 1 midfielder of recent seasons has found the formula to dominate shorter quarters. That’s three consecutive scores of 122 or better from Macrae and he’s surged back above $600,000.

— Toby Greene (166): Hard to rely on Greene week-to-week, but when he’s on, look out. This was his first score of more than 108 this year and came from five goals and 18 disposals. At about $500k he’s worth consideration, especially with more midfield time a possibility due to short turnarounds.

Jake Lloyd scored 119 points after halftime against Hawthorn on Saturday.
Jake Lloyd scored 119 points after halftime against Hawthorn on Saturday.

— James Sicily (164): That score of 44 in Round 5 seems a lifetime ago. Either side of that the star Hawk has posted 128, 114, 132, 149 and 164. Those are monumental numbers and suggest he’ll challenge Jake Lloyd to be the year’s No. 1 defender.

— Rowan Marshall (160): So much for the school of thought Marshall and Paddy Ryder can’t play together. The Saints ruck duo combined for 302 points against Port Adelaide with Marshall edging Ryder’s score of 142. Marshall only had 11 hit outs but laid five tackles and recorded 15 disposals.

— Jake Lloyd (157): Quite incredible that Lloyd was on 18 points with five minutes left in the first half. He scored 119 points in the second half against Hawthorn, 83 of which came in a dominant third term.

— Tim Kelly (150): The star Eagles recruit got as low as $483,600 but is rocketing up in price after scores of 140, 105 and 150 in the past three rounds. His break even was only 59 ahead of Sunday’s demolition of Collingwood and if you liked what you saw, you’ll soon have to pay closer to $550,000. Kelly had 30 possessions and kicked a goal against the Magpies.

— Zach Merrett (135): The star Bomber was the dominant player on the ground against Adelaide, coming close to his break even of 153. About $530k is as cheap as he will get now and his price is about to start rising after having 33 possessions and nine marks despite close attention from Ben Keays at times.

Jy Simpkin was restricted to 35 KFC SuperCoach points by Ed Curnow.
Jy Simpkin was restricted to 35 KFC SuperCoach points by Ed Curnow.

MISSES

— Jy Simpkin (35): Heavily tagged by Ed Curnow after overcoming an ankle injury to play, Simpkin finished with 11 possessions against the Blues. His value has dropped to under $500k and will be closer to $450k after Round 10.

— Connor Rozee (39): Rozee was 41 points at halftime but only had two possessions after the main break. Incredible to think that after reaching $470k he will bottom out at about $280k. With best 18 coming, he could be worth a punt at that price, although you would want to see his form turnaround. His best score is 54 since Round 3.

— Travis Boak (54): What a bargain Boak will be in a few weeks’ time. He got to $628,700 in Round 6 but is dropping after scores of 70, 98 and 54. Hard to predict when his bye will be but if it’s favourable he will need to be considered.

Sam Docherty hasn’t reached 90 in his past four games.
Sam Docherty hasn’t reached 90 in his past four games.

— Sam Docherty (66): Two tough deliberate decisions went against Docherty and didn’t help his KFC SuperCoach scoring. Could you entertain trading him after four scores under 90? With Tom Stewart waiting in the wings, it has to at least be considered.

— Tom Doedee (31): The stand-in Crows captain hardly feature after halftime due to a hamstring injury. It was a blow for those who traded him in this week, although the silver lining was his break even is 28. You’ll be able to make $10k or so by trading him to Shannon Hurn if the Eagle had been in your sights.

— Devon Smith (49): The time has arrived to trade Smith, whose value is getting dangerously close to his starting price of $335k. That was his lowest score of the season and you might as well field a rookie if he’s going to be averaging 60 a week.

— Brodie Grundy (61): Grundy’s 61 was his first game under 100 for the season and lowest total since Round 7, 2017. No need to consider trading, but it seems certain he’ll get a rest at some point after Darcy Cameron’s impressive reintroduction. Just hope it’s in a week of best 18 scoring if you don’t have cover, otherwise you’ll be in real trouble and need to consider trading.

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Originally published as Champion Data examines the key KFC SuperCoach stats ahead of Round 9

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