KFC SuperCoach trade guide: Best targets for Round 15
The AFL’s best tagger is back and some of the biggest names in KFC SuperCoach are in the crosshairs. Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako reveals who should be nervous. TRADE GUIDE
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As we say at this time every season – thankfully the bye rounds are done and dusted!
Round 14 was the toughest bye round of the year, and if you got through that with a win in your mini league and you were able to sustain your overall ranking, then you’ve done a good job.
Plenty of KFC SuperCoaches opted to upgrade in the midfield last round and two of the most popular acquisitions were Sam Walsh and Zach Merrett. As it turned out, both were underwhelming from a scoring point of view, with Walsh scoring a season-low 71, while Merrett dropped below 100 for just the third time this season. However, these sub-par returns had more to do with the opposition tactics than the players themselves.
Taggers were back to haunt SuperCoaches in Round 14 and the most effective player in that role, Matt de Boer, completely shut Walsh out of the game. The GWS stopper kept Walsh kickless for the first time in his career in a first half, with Walsh’s 20 disposals his lowest return for the season.
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The Hawks tag-teamed Merrett with Liam Shiels and James Cousins, but despite their efforts, Merrett was still able to collect 27 disposals and 93 points. It wasn’t the 120-plus score we were hoping for — especially those that put the big C on him — but it wasn’t disastrous one, either.
If we look ahead at De Boer’s upcoming opponents, it doesn’t make for good reading based on my team alone. He’s likely to tag one of my players in seven of the remaining nine rounds. The table below can be used as a trade/captain guide over the remaining weeks as we try and navigate our way past the clamp known as de Boer.
R15 v Hawthorn — likely opponent Tom Mitchell/Jaeger O’Meara
R16 v Melbourne — Clayton Oliver
R17 v Gold Coast — David Swallow
R18 v Sydney Swans — Jake Lloyd
R19 v Essendon — Zach Merrett
R20 v Port Adelaide —Travis Boak
R21 v Geelong — Patrick Dangerfield
R22 v Richmond — Dustin Martin
R23 v Carlton — Sam Walsh
Geelong’s Mark O’Connor is another player we need to be wary of in Round 15. O’Connor has had success as a tagger already this season, and based on that alone, we are likely to see him go straight to Lachie Neale on Thursday night. O’Connor kept him to just eight disposals in the 91 minutes they were matched up earlier this season in Round 2. Chris Scott is more ad hoc with the way he uses O’Connor, but in saying that, any one of Merrett, Dustin Martin and Clayton Oliver could be his potential targets in the run home.
ROOKIE WATCH
With most SuperCoaches looking to finish off their team by having a full team of 22 premiums on the field, this diminishes the need to generate cash via rookies, but in saying that you still need some reliable bench cover in the run home, especially as some SuperCoaches are running low on trades.
Unless there’s an injury, it seems Ned Reeves may have to bide his time in the VFL in the coming weeks as Ben McEvoy and Jonathan Ceglar once again led the Hawks’ ruck brigade in Round 14. Reeves played in the VFL last week, finishing with 12 disposals, seven hitouts-to-advantage and KFC SuperCoach 83 points.
Luke Edwards is one of several bubble boys on the horizon ahead of Round 15 – he scored 96 points from 27 disposals and two score assists against Richmond in Round 13. But the Eagles are likely to have several key players return to the team this week, one of which is gun midfielder Luke Shuey. Shuey hasn’t played since Round 3 and he returned through the WAFL last week. Although it’s not a like-for-like swap, someone needs to make way for Shuey.
Another Eagle, Luke Foley, is also poised for a price rise after his next match. But he could make way for Brad Sheppard, who is set to return from concussion.
Round 13 hero Jai Newcombe struggled on his way to just 24 points last round, but even with that poor score, if he keeps his place in the side and you’re looking to downgrade then he’s worth a move.
Kieren Briggs was a popular choice last week, but Shane Mumford is also set for a recall after a back injury and Briggs would then more than likely make way. If you don’t mind spending a little bit more, then Joel Amartey looms as another option. He hasn’t missed a beat in his Fwd/Ruck role and leads the Swans for contested marks from Rounds 12-13 with five. Amartey is also a DPP.
As always, trade wisely and best of luck ahead of Round 15!
TRADE GUIDE: IS DANGERFIELD A MUST-HAVE?
— Al Paton
The byes are dead and the blue dots have been banished for another year.
Now it’s time to pick up the pieces from a brutal three weeks and set our sights on the run home — six home-and-away rounds then a three-round KFC SuperCoach finals series.
The first step is to move your players back where you need them — Round 14 bye players off the bench and undo any one-week dual-position swaps.
You also need to take note of how many trades you have remaining. Ideally you want at least four to cover injuries and emergencies after finishing your team — remembering that each upgrade usually requires two trades.
Cash in bank — and on your bench (if you’ve got a few bench players worth about $300,000 you’re in a much stronger position than teams with a bench full of $102K rookies) is also another consideration in the mid-season stocktake.
For most of us, adding at least one more superstar will top off our teams nicely, and it just so happens there are two ideal trade targets this week.
With 2021 top scorers like Marcus Bontempelli and Clayton Oliver out of reach for many, the opportunity to pick up proven KFC SuperCoach stars at a discount price couldn’t have come at a better time.
NEALE OR DANGERFIELD?
Incredibly, Lachie Neale and Patrick Dangerfield could almost be point-of-difference picks for the final nine rounds.
Neale was the No.1 scorer in KFC SuperCoach in 2020 with an average of 134.4 points per game and has averaged 109 or better every season since 2017.
Dangerfield, meanwhile, has averaged at least 113 every year since 2012 except one — 2014, when he averaged 105.6.
Both have had underwhelming 2021 seasons so far and both have had two weeks back after lengthy injury lay-offs to find their feet — and drop substantially in price.
And off the back of vintage performances in Round 14, now is the time to strike.
Neale posted a season-high 159 points against the Kangaroos, racking up 30 disposals, 10 tackles, 10 clearances and a goal.
That means he is actually $1100 more expensive than last week despite his monster break even. But he is still terrific value at $576,300 — more than $145K down from his Round 1 price.
Dangerfield is different proposition. He had a break even of 191 entering Friday night’s clash against the Bulldogs and didn’t reach Neale’s level, but there were lots of signs he was close to his best especially in the frantic final minutes.
His price has dropped to $515,400 with a break even of 138 against the Lions next week.
He is in just 7 per cent of teams. Neale is in 8 per cent. Those numbers are set to change in a big way.
ROUND 15 ROOKIES
To grab a superstar like Neale or Dangerfield — or some of the other options below — most coaches will have to cash in a rookie who has jumped in value (hopefully we have some left) to a bottom-priced player on the bubble.
Hawk Ned Reeves ($123,900 RUC) remains a good option if he gets a game. Even if he doesn’t, you could consider cashing in Matt Flynn if he’s your R3 and Brodie Grundy returns, either replacing him with Reeves or moving Callum Coleman-Jones up from the forward line using his dual-position status.
Reeves’ teammate Jai Newcombe ($102,400 MID) is on the bubble this week but he is already in more than 62,000 teams, and might not keep his spot after scoring 24 against Essendon.
Fortunately, there are some other good options.
Luke Edwards $117,300 MID
Was fantastic in his first two AFL games, scoring 63 and 96, resulting in a break even of -89 against the Bulldogs this weekend. The only concern is the number of top Eagles set to return from injury, with Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly, Jeremy McGovern and Brad Sheppard all possible inclusions for Round 15.
Kieren Briggs $123,900 DEF/FWD
A younger version of Shane Mumford, the crash-and-bash GWS big man replaced his veteran teammate against the Blues and logged 15 hitouts, six tackles and a goal to register a very respectable 69 KFC SuperCoach points. He is set for a healthy price rise after his third game but if Mummy returns from a back injury, is there a role for him?
OTHER ROUND 15 TARGETS
Nick Haynes $366,800 DEF
Some coaches were brave enough to back the GWS interceptor after one good game — if you were one of them, well played. It appears (on a two-game sample size) he is back to the form and role that made him such a great pick in 2020. And he’ll still be super cheap even after a decent price rise after scoring 96 and 118 in his past two matches.
Luke Ryan $555,400 DEF
Remember those eight teams that didn’t play on the weekend? All those players are available again and (touch wood) will play every game from here. Ryan isn’t as cheap as Haynes but could be a smart defensive POD (8 per cent ownership) after returning to form with a five-round average of 110 including 133 and 128 in his past two.
Christian Petracca $546,100 MID
Players like Sam Walsh, Zach Merrett and Ollie Wines were popular targets last week around the $560-570K range and Petracca is a fair bit cheaper again. He hasn’t quite managed the consistent ballistic scoring he managed in 2020 but a season average of 105.6 (past five 109.6) isn’t too shabby and he’s bound to have one or two games when he absolutely torches his opposition.
Jack Steele $625,200 MID
The Saints co-captain dominated in his three matches before the Saints’ bye, scoring 150, 146 and 126 — which would have been much higher if not for six free kicks against. If you’re playing the money game he’s a better pick than Clayton Oliver, who is priced at $668,000 and has a break even of 199 next round.
Shai Bolton $524,400 FWD/MID
Finishing off the forward line is the final headache for many coaches and Bolton is a player who should come into consideration. He has scored under 100 only twice since Round 3 and they were a 99 and 96. And Richmond’s draw looks favourable with upcoming games against St Kilda, Gold Coast and Collingwood.
Callum Mills $563,500 DEF
The No.1 ranked defender this season is almost back to his starting price despite averaging 111.8 for the season and 108.8 over his past five. He has only scored above 130 three times but hasn’t gone under 100 in his past eight matches (and has a season-low of 84). Mills is $2k cheaper than teammate Jake Lloyd, who is another good option. Or you could just get Tom Stewart who will be a similar price after his incredible 10 intercept mark display against the Dogs.
Brodie Grundy $627,700 RUC
The almost 30,000 coaches who traded out Grundy after his neck injury in Round 11 are now in a very tricky position. Most will want Grundy back in their starting ruck combination but at that price it’s not an easy trade. He has a break even of 163 and faces rising Dockers ruckman Sean Darcy next round — if he’s cleared to play. That will likely result in a decent price drop before games against St Kilda (Paddy Ryder) and Richmond (Mabior Chol or Toby Nankervis). Get your calculators out ...
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