KFC SuperCoach Round 9 trade guide: Star midfielders available at discount prices
Tom Mitchell posted a huge KFC SuperCoach score, but is he really back? Champion Data guru Fantasy Freako takes a closer look at the numbers. TRADE GUIDE
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Value is the central theme this round as two blue-chip midfielders are available for less than $530,000.
One of them is KFC SuperCoach royalty – Tom Mitchell. After starting the season with 39 disposals and 135 points he hadn’t reached those heights again until last week against West Coast, when he tallied 41 disposals, 17 contested possessions and eight score involvements – all season-highs.
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It was Mitchell’s ball use that stood out the most, recording 34 effective disposals. Hitting targets always helps scoring. He also had two score assists and applied four tackles.
Across the season, Mitchell has produced solid numbers across several key areas, including ranking second in the competition for total disposals behind Jack Macrae. Mitchell leads the comp for handballs and uncontested possessions and ranks third overall for handball-receives.
However, he has been more effective at around-the-ground stoppages compared to centre bounces. He ranks seventh in the league for stoppage first possessions compared to equal 46th for centre bounce first possessions.
Mitchell has posted excellent numbers against his three next opponents as well – returning 143, 164 and 130 points respectively in his most recent match against the Kangaroos, Carlton and Gold Coast.
The other value midfield option is another left-footer – Josh Kelly. After playing out of position in the opening six rounds, he has returned to his customary role as a wing/centre bounce midfielder and his numbers have reflected the change in role – scoring 129 and 111 points in the past two rounds.
On the weekend against the Bombers, he attended a season-high 24 centre bounces and won eight pre-clearance disposals and seven pre-clearance contested possessions. His ball use in general play though could have been better, recording a disposal efficiency of 68 per cent. Kelly also had an impact on the scoreboard, recording one score assist and kicking two goals.
Like Mitchell, Kelly also boasts strong numbers against his next three opponents, scoring 195 points in his last match against this round’s opponent, Richmond. He also has 139 and 95 points against the two teams to follow, West Coast and Brisbane.
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Kelly’s teammate Tim Taranto is also under $530,000 and although he isn’t considered a blue-chip option, his numbers in recent weeks suggest he’s well on his way. After scoring 110-plus points in just one of his first six games, he has returned 139 and 126 points in the past two weeks. Against the Bombers, he hit he target with a season-high 65 per cent of kicks – while also kicking one goal and having three score assists.
If you’re looking at bringing in a midfielder this round, then Mitchell and Kelly are the standout value options, with Taranto a close third.
ROOKIE WATCH
SuperCoaches flocked to Martin Frederick last round until Ken Hinkley announced that the Power youngster was omitted from the team. In the end, Frederick was the medical sub in the Showdown and came onto the ground to score 18 points and rise in price by $46,900. An injury to Dan Houston could open the door for Frederick to return to the starting team, but his job security remains shaky at best with the imminent return of Lachie Jones.
Riley Collier-Dawkins looms at the go-to option this round ahead of his third AFL match. The injury-hit Tigers will once again be without Trent Cotchin and Dion Prestia for another week. But we can now add the names Shane Edwards and Shai Bolton to the growing injury list.
Collier-Dawkins wasn’t as heavily involved in the centre square last round compared to his AFL debut, attending nine centre bounces – ranked sixth at the club. Considering that Edwards and Bolton both attended more, we should expect Collier-Dawkins to climb up the centre bounce pecking order this round against the Giants. With a breakeven score of -45, he should enjoy a solid price rise.
Magpie Caleb Poulter is another player on the bubble this round on the back of 81 points last week against the Kangaroos. He hit the target with 83 per cent of kicks and won 18 disposals and 11 uncontested possessions.
Nathan Buckley has already dropped Oliver Henry, Finlay Macrae and Jay Rantall this season, so it does place a question mark over Poulter. In saying that, SuperCoaches with Macrae in their side will be pleased to learn he was the standout in the VFL last week as he racked up 31 disposals and he may not be far away from a senior return.
Another Magpie, Trent Bianco ($123,900 DEF/MID), played his first match at VFL level last week and was prominent throughout, finishing with 29 disposals, 22 uncontested possessions and 124 KFC SuperCoach points. With a dearth of defensive rookie options available, a Bianco debut will be much-appreciated by SuperCoaches.
As always, trade wisely and best of luck for the upcoming round!
TRADE GUIDE: BEST VALUE PREMIUMS
— Al Paton
This is the week to add some serious star power to your KFC SuperCoach midfield — without breaking the bank.
Last week the focus for most coaches was on the defence, with discounted premiums Steven May and Caleb Daniel dominating trade discussions along with Port Adelaide rookie Martin Frederick (who scrambled plans for thousands of coaches when he started as the medical sub in the Showdown).
And, like May and Daniel last week, they are almost exactly the same price, leaving coaches looking for a big upgrade with a tough dilemma over which way to go.
JOSH KELLY $511,600 MID
Discount from Round 1 price: $104,000 | Current ownership: 5 per cent
Kelly looked back to his best a week ago when he piled on 129 points against the Crows, but many coaches wanted another look to make sure it was the real deal.
They got confirmation on Saturday with a 111-point return in a thriller against Essendon, with Kelly gathering 30 disposals and booting two goals.
Kelly has averaging 113 points a game or more every season from 2017-20. The concern is durability — he has missed 20 games in past four seasons, mostly through soft-tissue complaints. We are also relying on Leon Cameron keeping Kelly on a wing after he played the first five rounds at half-forward (averaging 95).
On the positive side, Kelly faces the depleted and tagger-free Tigers midfield next round. And his Round 12 bye will be friendly for most teams.
TOM MITCHELL $525,800 MID
Discount from Round 1 price: 84,200 | Current ownership: 14 per cent
Most of the above description could apply to the 2018 Brownlow medallist, but potentially with a bit less risk.
Mitchell flew under the radar after missing most of the pre-season following shoulder surgery, but was added to 13,000 teams after a huge 135-point game in Round 1.
He hit the KFC SuperCoach ton in three of his next six matches but failed to pass the 110-point mark. The positive was he wasn’t having any trouble getting his hands on the footy — averaging 32 disposals over that stretch — it was just a matter of turning the touches into SuperCoach points.
There were signs the wheel was turning when he posted 105 points from 38 touches against St Kilda and on Sunday he was back to his best, tallying 41 disposals and 147 SuperCoach points.
Mitchell averaged 113.5 points a game last year after a year off following knee surgery, so the only way is up from here.
AL’ VERDICT
Both are bona fide stars at a great price, so there is really no wrong answer. Kelly is a bit cheaper, the Giants are likely to win more matches and he plays a more eye-catching style, but he has greater risk in terms of injury and the whims of coach Leon Cameron. Mitchell might be a less exciting selection but two weeks ago I took a gamble by selecting Christian Petracca over Clayton Oliver, seduced by his star power over Oliver’s consistent excellence. Since them Oliver has averaged 120.5 and Petracca 82.5. Mitchell for me.
MORE TRADE TARGETS
JORDAN RIDLEY $488,200 DEF
The top-scoring player of the first four rounds available for $60k under his starting price? Yes, please! Well, maybe not so fast. Ridley presents as an obvious bargain but his scoring profile since returning from concussion is a slight cause for concern — 87 and 84, with Jayden Laverde and Mason Redman taking over some of his intercepting and kick-out numbers. Ridley is still likely to be one of the top-scoring defenders this season but with a break even of 119 we can afford to wait at least one more week before pouncing.
DARCY MOORE $365,900 DEF
Short on cash? Moore could be the answer after he returned to defence in Collingwood’s win against the Kangaroos and grabbed a crazy 19 marks and 28 disposals to rack up 130 KFC SuperCoach points — after managing 24 the week before playing as a forward. It wasn’t a total outlier, either, after Moore put up 119 and 118 in the first two rounds at centre-half back. Surely Nathan Buckley has put the forward line experiment to bed, right?
JAMES HARMES $344,700 DEF
Speaking of budget-priced defenders, Harmes is back on the radar after returning from a six-week injury break and starring in the Demons midfield with 132 points. Harmes was trialled in other roles in 2020 but has scored well as a midfielder in the past, averaging 95.1 points a game in 2019. With a break even of just 9 his price is heading up and games against Carlton and Adelaide in the next two weeks could offer more scoring opportunities, but there are a lot of guns in that Demons side all eating from the same pie.
DUSTIN MARTIN $442,800 MID/FWD
Almost 60 per cent of teams already have Dusty — most paying $541,600 for him before Round 1 — but if you don’t you’re about to get him for a steal. Martin shed $39,000 after his concussion-affected game against Melbourne and another $40k after he could manage only 65 points against the Cats in his return game. He is projected to lose a similar amount this week unless he can score 159 against the Giants and the Tigers have Brisbane at the Gabba after that. Then comes Adelaide and Essendon at the G — by that stage he could be under $400k.
AARON HALL $419,500 FWD
How do you feel about having two defenders from the bottom-placed team as your F1 and F2 this year? The bizarre scenario could actually play out with Hall matching Jack Ziebell for scoring power in recent weeks after being shifted to defence. His past month has included scores of 133, 106 and 113 plus an injury-affected 37 against Geelong which has kept his price low, for a couple of weeks at least (break even 30 this week). His selection comes with a large element of risk given his injury history, the possibility his role could change again or he attracts opposition attention, but at that price it could be worth it.
ROUND 9 ROOKIE RACE
To obtain the cash to trade a rookie up to one of the midfield guns above, most coaches will need to cash in another cheapie for a player on the bubble — about to play his third game and rise in value.
And the good news is there are several excellent candidates this week.
RILEY COLLIER-DAWKINS $123,900 MID
SCORES: 76, 43 | BREAK EVEN: -45
“RCD” had a case of the second-game blues as the Richmond midfield was comprehensively beaten by the Cats on Friday night.
Collier-Dawkins was the Tigers’ No.1 centre bounce attendee on debut against the Bulldogs but attended far fewer in game two, with Marlion Pickett’s new role as an inside mid seemingly coming at the youngster’s expense.
His 63 per cent time on ground was the lowest of any Richmond player apart from sub Patrick Naish, and the flip side of being a centre bounce specialist is a lack of flexibility to play in other positions.
But Dimma is a fan, he had some nice moments late in the game and a medium-term injury to Shane Edwards — on top of the continued absence of Trent Cotchin and Dion Prestia — should ensure he keeps his spot in the side for a few more weeks at least.
ULTIMATE ROOKIE GUIDE: WHO TO BUY, HOLD AND SELL
CALEB POULTER $117,300 MID/FWD
SCORES: 52, 81 | BREAK EVEN: -63
The long-haired Magpie put his name firmly on the rookie radar with an 81-point second game against the Kangaroos off the back of 18 disposals and four marks.
That followed a debut game that featured 15 disposals but four clangers (he had zero against North Melbourne).
Poulter’s SANFL numbers last year are enticing reading — averaging 25.2 disposals, 10.6 contested possessions and almost a goal a game to go with 130 SuperCoach points.
Nathan Buckley is playing the kids and you wouldn’t expect any changes to a winning line-up.
Dual-position could be handy, too.
MATTHEW OWIES $123,900 FWD
SCORES 67, 49 | BREAK EVEN -42
It’s not that unusual any more to see footballers recruited after a stint as an American college basketballer, but Owies might be the first small forward to do it.
Owies has kicked five goals in his first two games after being recruited by Carlton in 2018 as a category B rookie (despite standing 179cm he played junior basketball for Australia and spent time at Seattle University before returning to footy).
He hasn’t done much wrong in his first two games but relying on goals to score is fraught with danger and his job security could be iffy.
RYAN BYRNES $123,900 MID
SCORES: 52, 62 | BREAK EVEN: -40
The most low profile of this week’s rookie options deserves more attention.
His stat line reads better than you might expect from his KFC SuperCoach scores, gathering 18 disposals and nine marks against Hawthorn in Round 7 and 16 touches and five marks against the Suns on Saturday.
Byrnes, who averaged 120 KFC SuperCoach points as Sandringham’s captain in the NAB League in 2019, made his senior debut last year but his lone score of 22 didn’t bump up his starting price this year.
He has performed an important role as a hard-running outside midfielder the past two weeks and it won’t have escaped Brett Ratten’s attention that the Saints won both those games to get their season back on track.
Watch the teams, though — Seb Ross will return this week, Daniel McKenzie is available after suspension and Luke Dunstan is putting up huge disposal numbers in the VFL.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Round 9 trade guide: Star midfielders available at discount prices
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