KFC SuperCoach 2023: Best rookies, trade targets and bye advice for round 11
Need a Clayton Oliver replacement or another star for your KFC SuperCoach team? Check the fixture first – or just use these tips from Champion Data guru Fantasy Freako. TRADE GUIDE
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The biggest dilemma facing SuperCoaches this week is what to do with Clayton Oliver.
There is no official timeline on his return, but the Demons have declared that they will be cautious with his recovery, as highlighted by Simon Goodwin’s comments on Wednesday: “It’s a minor (hamstring) strain. We’re going to build him through that process. How long that takes, we’re unsure. We’ll give him every chance in the next few weeks. We’re going to be very cautious.”
Let’s not kid ourselves – no one can adequately cover a player who is averaging 125 points with someone off the bench. Essentially, up are giving up close to 60 points if your replacement reaches 65.
The safe play would be to hold Oliver and use a player off your bench this week and just take a points hit for one week, because as of round 12 it’s best 18 for scoring regardless of position. If you were ever going to carry a premium on your bench, it would be during the byes.
Oliver aside, Josh Kelly is another player who must be offloaded this week as he too has succumbed to a hamstring injury. His prognosis is much clearer, with the Giants ruling him out for up to four weeks.
If you own both Oliver and Kelly, then you can count yourself to be extremely unfortunate.
In terms of replacements, there are plenty to choose from, but who sits atop of the tree?
Before making any decision it would be wise to look at the run home of all 18 teams and see who has the kindest, or conversely, toughest, run home to end the year.
If we look at the easiest run home based on fixtures, the Saints have a dream run with six matches remaining against bottom-four opponents, the most of any team. That’s ahead of Essendon and Western Bulldogs, who both have five. From a KFC SuperCoach perspective, that brings the likes of Jack Steele, Zach Merrett, Tom Liberatore and even Bailey Smith into the equation. Another player worth monitoring is Jack Macrae, who is on the cusp of earning DPP status.
Below are the remaining games against bottom-four teams:
St Kilda – 6
Essendon, Western Bulldogs – 5
Adelaide, Richmond, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Melbourne – 4
Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, Sydney, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Carlton, Hawthorn – 3
West Coast, Geelong – 2
At the other end of this spectrum are teams with the toughest run home. Adelaide and Geelong each have five games to come against top-four teams. This doesn’t necessarily rule out players from those teams, with Rory Laird one case in point – he averages 112 against top-eight teams and 111 against bottom-10 opponents. He gets scores on the board irrespective of the opponent.
Other teams with a tougher run home include Richmond, Fremantle, Carlton, and Hawthorn with four games remaining against top-four opposition.
Remaining games against top-four teams:
Adelaide, Geelong – 5
Richmond, Fremantle, Carlton, Hawthorn – 4
St Kilda, Collingwood, Gold Coast – 3
Essendon, Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne, Melbourne, Brisbane Lions, Sydney, GWS Giants, West Coast – 2
Port Adelaide – 1
FREAKO’S ROOKIE WATCH
It was a fruitful round for most of our on-field rookies in round 10 as the likes of Will Ashcroft (124), Josh Weddle (114), Harry Sheezel (112), Rory Atkins (102), Bailey Humphrey (101), Kade Chandler (86), Darcy Wilmot (83) and Seamus Mitchell (82) all scored well above expectation. Let’s hope they can also turn up during the all-important bye rounds when it will be all hands on deck.
I’m sure there would have been a few SuperCoaches that benched Reuben Ginbey’s 108 points in round 9 and then fielded him in round 10 for 35 points. Unfortunately, that’s how rookie roulette rolls.
As we look ahead to this round, there will still be SuperCoaches looking at Humphrey even after a combined price rise of over $100,000 in the last two rounds. With recent scored of 117 and 101 under his belt he still has a BE of -54, which suggests there is still plenty of room for growth.
Elsewhere, there are a couple of one-gamers who caught the eye in round 10 with both George Wardlaw (82) and Eddie Ford (102) posting solid first-up scores. Wardlaw looked at home at AFL level against Sydney, tallying 16 disposals, six clearances and a team-high nine tackles. He also attended 18 centre bounces – the equal third-most of any Kangaroos player.
Ford, on the other hand, booted one goal and had two score assists, finishing with 21 disposals and seven contested possessions. He scored 63 points after halftime and was a shining light for the side.
Both should keep their spot in the team for the coming weeks.
Cameron Fleeton is the only bubble boy worth considering this week, but even then, his scores of 47 and 44 are less than inspiring. Kaine Baldwin is also on the bubble after more solid returns of 76 and 60 points – but Jayden Laverde is nearing a return and Baldwin would be the one to make way, most likely.
Josh Fahey continues to knock down the door at GWS with another 43 disposals, 14 marks and seven intercept possessions in the VFL. He was an emergency again last round and after the injury to Josh Kelly he may be finally handed a run in the senior team.
Happy trading and best of luck for round 11!
How to defuse Clayton Oliver injury bomb
– Tim Michell, Al Paton, Dan Batten
The unthinkable has happened.
Clayton Oliver is injured, and his 104,000 owners in KFC SuperCoach have to deal with the loss of a player who has missed just one game in the past six seasons.
Is the No.2 scorer in KFC SuperCoach a must-trade? The answer to that isn’t totally straightforward.
For starters, it’s not entirely clear how long he will be out for after scans revealed a hamstring strain.
“At this early stage, we anticipate Clayton won’t be available in the short term,” Demons High Performance Manager Selwyn Griffith said late on Monday.
“His return to play will ultimately be guided by his ability to deal with increase loads and reconditioning. As such, we will have greater clarity as Clayton progresses through his program.”
The expected diagnosis was 3-4 weeks but given Oliver’s powers of recovery – he was at training on Monday – he could be back sooner than that.
Then there’s the upcoming fixture.
Round 11 is the last full round of matches before the byes begin. In round 12 four teams have the week off and in round 13 it’s just two – Geelong and Gold Coast. KFC SuperCoach adopts ‘best 18’ scoring for all four bye rounds so only your top 18 scores count towards your weekly total.
If you think you can get 18 or more scorers on the field during those rounds you might only really be missing Oliver this week, considering round 14 is Melbourne’s bye – when he wouldn’t have played anyway – and he should be back by round 15.
If you hold him you’ll need bench cover this week and for the following two weeks you’ll most likely have to take a lower score than what Oliver would have delivered as part of your best 18 total, but the damage is a lot lower than it would be at another time in the season. Plus you avoid the problem of not having Oliver – or finding the money to bring him back in – for the final 10 rounds of the year, when he’s again likely to be at the top of the KFC SuperCoach scoring tree.
Given he still scored 120 against the Power despite getting hurt during the game, he’s not going to get much cheaper than his current $658k price tag.
Having said all that, you could give your team an instant points injection by trading Oliver to another superstar like Rory Laird, who looks primed for a hot run after scoring 145 last round. You could even use Oliver’s value to trade him and a cashed up rookie like Samson Ryan or Oskar Baker to two cheaper premiums, solving two problems by replacing Clarry and getting another rookie score off the field.
Which way you go might come down to where your team is positioned and how much depth you have on the bench now, and during the byes. If you are looking to trade Oliver – a move more than 17,000 coaches have already made – here are the best replacements.
RORY LAIRD $597,600 MID
Bye: Round 14
It appears $595k was as cheap as Laird will get this year. His Break Even heading to Ballarat was 139 but those hoping to get the prolific Crow cheaper than $590k were left sorely disappointed when he pumped out a score of 145 from 34 disposals and 10 tackles against the Bulldogs. That was Laird’s first score of more than 120 since round 6 and a welcome return to the uber premium form he has displayed in recent years. Laird next takes on Brisbane Lions, a team he has scored 142 and 129 against in his last two outings. Perhaps the most pleasing factor about his performance on Saturday was there were no signs of the niggles which he has carried in the past month. If he’s returning to full fitness, look out. He’s got West Coast (round 13) and North Melbourne (round 16) either side of his bye, match-ups which will have Laird owners licking their lips. The Crows and Demons share a bye, so swapping him in for Oliver shouldn’t ruin any long-term plans.
MARCUS BONTEMPELLI $707,700 MID
Bye: Round 15
For the 51 per cent of coaches without Bontempelli in their team, this could be the only chance you get to grab the No.1 scorer in KFC SuperCoach. The Bont has taken his game to another level this season, averaging 128 points per game and dropping under 100 just once – an 89 in round 3 against the Lions. Since then his scores have included 182, 164 and 145, the types of scores than can doom you in a league match-up. Losing Oliver makes finding a reliable captain each week difficult, but you’ll sleep easy at night with the C on the Bulldogs skipper. With a Break Even of 181, he is likely to be under $700k next week, but can you afford to wait?
ZACH MERRETT $582,100 MID
Bye: Round 14
Most KFC SuperCoaches were expecting big things from the Essendon skipper during a run of successive games against Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne. Things could hardly have gone better for the 6286 coaches who traded in Merrett before the Dreamtime game. He was back at the coalface after spending time at half forward in recent games, tallying 39 disposals and 162 KFC SuperCoach points. So much for those who thought they were safe to wait a week due to Merrett’s 120 Break Even. Surely West Coast won’t give him the same latitude Richmond did and a date with stopper Xavier O’Neill beckons. But even then, who would put it past Merrett to score big again after the form he produced on Saturday night. The issue now for non-owners is if you wait until round 15 (post-bye) you are likely to be paying well in excess of $600k.
ZAK BUTTERS $620,700 MID/FWD
Bye: Round 15
The Port Adelaide dynamo has been one of the hottest players in KFC SuperCoach in the past three rounds, reeling off scores of 125, 139 and 184 to have a three-round average of 149.3. It seems crazy that Butters was still under $500k after round 5. He’ll now cost you more than $600k and is one of the most expensive forwards in KFC SuperCoach. Butters has been one of Port Adelaide’s main centre bounce midfielders in the past seven rounds and the extra time in the engine room has been the catalyst for his incredible run. The issue with grabbing him now is he’s near the peak of his price and has a round 15 bye, which is one of the bye rounds most coaches will be struggling to field 18 players. The best-case scenario for those eyeing Butters would be 1-2 quiet weeks in succession and his price getting back toward $550k. That’s when you could jump on as one of your last premium upgrades. He’s flying, but would you rather pick a fallen premium in midfield and bank $50-100k or pay premium dollars for Butters? History says the fallen premium, but if Butters maintains the sort of form he showed against Melbourne he’s going to be a player who will have a huge say in the overall rankings and league finals match-ups.
LACHIE NEALE $561,500 MID
Bye: Round 12
This might be the week Neale is at his lowest price for the season but he has the first of this year’s byes. There’s no doubt it’s tempting to trade him in this week, though, considering his recent record against Adelaide – scores of 115, 147 and 148. Although his average has dropped this season as he shares KFC SuperCoach points with Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft, Neale still has seven tons in 10 games and three scores of 124 or better. His run home features Hawthorn, a struggling Sydney, St Kilda and Richmond – which just leaked 162 points to Merrett – and West Coast. Only four teams have the round 12 bye and if you’re well placed for best 18 scoring, bringing in Neale this week would give you more freedom to plug other holes in rounds 14 and 15. Expect Neale to be one of the most traded-in premiums this week, regardless of the bye. His value is undeniable.
Premiums, rookies to bye-proof your SuperCoach team
What should your priority be in KFC SuperCoach?
The byes, cash generation or maximising scores now?
Ultimately, the answer is all three.
Realistically, the chances of catering your trades to all of them are very low.
The byes are a crucial factor that must be considered this week, especially with two of the standout rookies – George Wardlaw and Eddie Ford – having the tricky round 15 bye.
Trading in two rookies with a round 15 bye would help in the earlier bye rounds, but trading for more players with that bye could leave you struggling to field 18 players.
Beanpole Sydney ruckman Lachlan McAndrew is the other rookie coaches will be weighing up after an ankle injury to Peter Ladhams boosted his job security.
McAndrew has the advantage of being a RUC-FWD and having the round 12 bye, although his scoring in the state league as a ruckman has been low.
McAndrew won’t be on the bubble until after Sydney’s round 12 bye, so you can afford to have another look if you want to be convinced he’s worth the trade.
There’s no shortage of great premium options this week, but again, many have the round 14 or 15 bye.
Zach Merrett (round 14) is coming off a 162 and faces West Coast, James Sicily (round 14) has four tons in his past five and Rory Laird (round 14) bottomed out in round 10 at $595k.
You get the idea.
If you’re confident someone such as Merrett scores enough before his bye to justify jumping on, don’t hesitate. But before you do, use SuperCoach Plus to check out how many players you have for each bye round.
If there’s one or two byes you’re struggling to field 18 in, you might need to hold fire and get your desired targets after they have the week off.
Here are our top trade targets ahead of round 11.
TOM STEWART $583,600 DEF
Bye: Round 13
Stewart’s price is back under $600k after his 91 points against the Dockers, which makes this a good time to target him considering his lowest price for the season has been $572k and that was after scoring an injury-affected 18 points in round 1. Geelong’s round 13 bye is also a huge selling point for one of the most reliable scorers in the game; he will priceless in round 14 when popular defenders Nick Daicos, James Sicily, Will Day and Jordan Dawson are all missing. Stewart had just 17 disposals against the Dockers, well below his season average (amazingly, no Geelong player had more than 19), but six intercepts and a disposal efficiency of 82 per cent helped him to a respectable total.
BAILEY HUMPHREY $285,700 MID/FWD
Bye: Round 13
Humphrey’s price exploded after scoring the second KFC SuperCoach ton of his career against Brisbane on Saturday night. The Gold Coast Gun had a Break Even of -59 and scored 101 on the back of 26 disposals (most for the Suns), 11 contested possessions and a goal. This kid is something special. The 22,000 coaches who added him to their team last week are already laughing, the question for the rest will be is it too late to pick him up this week after a monster price rise. There’s a strong case to say yes – with a BE this week of -54 a lot more cash is on the way, and if he’s scoring like this you can safely put Humphrey on the field, replacing some very sketchy rookies coaches are currently relying on. And he’ll play in all of the round 12, 14 and 15 bye rounds. The tricky part is finding the cash since he’s well beyond a traditional rookie downgrade. You could go sideways from a player like Alex Cincotta or Oskar Baker, or even consider making money by cashing in an underwhelming starter who you might be looking to move on during the byes anyway.
CAMERON FLEETON $123,900 DEF
If you’re looking for a rookie on the bubble this week, the GWS defender is your best bet. He has looked solid down back in his two appearances so far, scoring 44 and 47 and grabbing two intercept marks against the Saints. His job security looks good, too, with Isaac Cumming out for four weeks with a calf injury and Sam Taylor’s return even further away. Playing as a key defender his scoring won’t blow you away and cash generation might be modest – with a -20 Break Even he is expected to make $23k this week – but he could be the avenue to a premium upgrade and the archetypal warm body on the bench and through the byes.
CHAD WARNER $520,900 MID
Bye: Round 12
Warner’s past month has flown under the radar and he might be one of the best value midfield options with the round 12 bye. After posting an equal season-high 137 against North Melbourne (he also scored 137 vs Port Adelaide in round 4), Warner has averaged 115.5 in his past four matches and shaken off a slow start to the year in which he managed only two tons to round 6. Trading in a player the week before their bye goes against most KFC SuperCoach logic, but this might be your only chance to get Warner before his price launches to $550k or above. Take a look at how your bye structure sits and if you can afford to be without him in round 12, jump on Warner and bolster your premium count for the two most difficult byes in round 14 and 15. That way you’ll be a trade and a premium ahead of other coaches and give yourself the best chance of making ground in the rankings or winning a league match in the last two weeks of the byes. Warner had a team-high 31 disposals and the Roos on Saturday.
LACHLAN McANDREW $123,900 FWD-RUC
Bye: Round 12
McAndrew has come a long way from the player who averaged just 31 points in 11 VFL games last year. The 209cm giant broke in for a debut against North Melbourne and finished with nine touches, 20 hitouts, five tackles and 52 points. He even started at the very first centre bounce over Peter Ladhams – who was stretchered off in the third term with what looked to be a serious ankle injury. The Swans are set to regain Tom Hickey after he missed the Roos win with delayed concussion, but the absence of Ladhams and Sydney’s key position injury crisis could see McAndrew get an extended run in the Swans side as a ruck/forward. He has the round 12 bye so will still be on the bubble ahead of his third game in round 13, but if you need the cash now he shapes as a solid downgrade option with handy RUC-FWD status.
GEORGE WARDLAW $193,800 MID
Bye: Round 15
Anyone who is likened to Clayton Oliver is going to catch the attention of KFC SuperCoaches. Wardlaw, who had been eased into things after repeated hamstring setbacks in the past 12 months, was a bull at a gate in his first senior game, attending 18 centre bounces and tallying 16 disposals, nine tackles, six clearances and 86 points. The Roos should give him more opportunities after his promising debut, but the issue is that the No.4 pick doesn’t come cheap and has the bye in round 15, where teams could be struggling to field 18 players. However, beggars can’t be choosers in the current rookie climate, and Wardlaw should keep pumping out reliable scores with his exceptional talent. It would be advised to wait until his second game before jumping on, though, considering his recent injury history.
ANDREW BRAYSHAW $572,400 MID
Bye: Round 12
We can safely declare now that Brayshaw is back. After a below-par start to the campaign (at least by his lofty standards) the star Docker has recorded 30 or more disposals in his past four matches and strung together KFC SuperCoach scores of 98, 149, 88 and 134. Caleb Serong has emerged as the No.1 Dockers onballer in KFC SuperCoach this year, but he’s projected to cost $620k or more after Fremantle’s bye. Brayshaw’s price is headed back toward $600k but you could still nab him at a discount if you’re prepared to jump on a week before the bye. Fremantle has Melbourne this week and the Demons have conceded big tons to midfielders in most games this year. Just look at the damage Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis did on Friday night.
JAMES SICILY $554,300 DEF
Bye: Round 14
The score of 63 from round 8 is now out of Sicily’s price cycle and he’s on the rise after exceeding his Break Even of 114 by 19 when he scored 133 against West Coast on Sunday. The Hawks captain now has scores of 128, 133 and 134 in his past four matches and is showing the type of form which made him one of the premier defenders of 2022. He tallied 30 disposals for the first time since round 1 in Launceston and took 11 marks. Not bad for a guy who said not long ago he “couldn’t imagine” living in Tasmania. It’s hard to know what to read into matches involving West Coast considering how bad the Eagles are going but Sicily’s form line is getting hard to ignore. Like many leading premium targets, he has the round 14 bye, though.
HUGH McCLUGGAGE $483,400 MID
Bye: Round 12
McCluggage scored his first ton for the year against Gold Coast on Saturday, recording 30 disposals, seven tackles and kicking a goal. It always seemed likely one of Brisbane’s midfielders would have a dip in KFC SuperCoach scoring and although Lachie Neale has dropped slightly it has been McCluggage – until the weekend at least – who has suffered the most from the arrival of Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft. Although his numbers haven’t been huge, McCluggage has scored under 91 only once in the past six weeks and his price is on the way up after a season-best showing in the Q Clash. He might not be in the same stratosphere as some of KFC SuperCoach’s top midfielders but if you need a player under $500k with the round 12 bye, he’s worth considering. McCluggage averaged 103.7 and 100 in the past two years.
RORY ATKINS $290,700 MID/DEF
Bye: Round 13
You couldn’t really pay close to $300k for Atkins, could you? If you missed out when he first came into the Suns team about a month ago, you have already given up about $100k in cash generation. But a trade this week for the former Crow would be more about bye coverage than cash. Atkins has scored 89, 68, 62 and 102 in his four games this year and feasted on the kick-ins against Brisbane with six (playing on from all of them). A large chunk of his points at the weekend came from kick-ins or handball receives as he pushed on from the kick-in to be the next player in the chain. His output is likely to drop once Lachie Weller returns but his return date remains uncertain as he recovers from swelling around his knee. Who knows? Maybe Atkins could end up being a player who covers you at D7/M9 once you have a full team. If you think that could be the case then paying $300k or thereabouts to boost your numbers during the byes isn’t a bad idea.
MASON REDMAN $471,200 DEF
Bye: Round 14
Your confidence in Redman as a KFC SuperCoach selection might come down to how many wins you think Essendon can manage in the run home. Redman has one of the biggest scoring disparities between wins and losses in the AFL – in the Bombers’ five victories this season he has averaged 105.8, in their five losses it’s 80.2. Last year the gap was even bigger, averaging 126.8 in wins and 78.2 in losses. In his favour are the fact Essendon faces West Coast and North Melbourne (a team he scored 176 against last year) in the next two rounds, and according to Champion Data has the easiest remaining fixture in the competition. That includes return matches against the Eagles and Roos in Rounds 21-22. He’s also extremely affordable. The one concern is he shares a bye with many popular defenders – check your team before committing.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2023: Best rookies, trade targets and bye advice for round 11
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