KFC SuperCoach 2023: 11 burning pre-season questions answered
Nat Fyfe is a future KFC SuperCoach hall-of-famer. But is he still relevant in 2023? Tim Michell runs the rule over the star’s remarkable price tag, injury history and new role.
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It’s the time of KFC SuperCoach pre-season where most coaches have most questions than answers.
The trade period, AFL Draft, pre-season bolters and more.
KFC SuperCoach throws plenty of curveballs – and importantly opportunities – during the pre-season.
We’ve answered 11 of the biggest burning questions for 2023, just in time for the full opening of KFC SuperCoach AFL.
Leave a comment below or head to our socials to let us know your thoughts on the biggest questions of the 2023 pre-season.
1. Is Nat Fyfe a bargain or an injury waiting to happen?
Can we say both? The Fremantle superstar is the 119th most-expensive forward in KFC SuperCoach this year after gaining MID-FWD status. To put his price into perspective, he’s $500 more than stopper Ryan Clarke and costs less than Liam Shiels who retired before being lured to North Melbourne. That’s definitely bargain territory, especially if he’s available Round 1. Fyfe has been to the US this off-season in a trip he hoped would make him more durable after only managing 36 games in the past three years. Expect him to be managed during pre-season and even miss games during the year if Fremantle has one eye on September. It will be worth starting Fyfe is he’s a popular selection – that way if he goes down, you’re in the same situation as thousands of other coaches. Just ensure you have an exit plan, even if it’s just to a rookie on the up.
2. How much more midfield time will Tom Mitchell get at Collingwood and who takes over at Hawthorn as top dog?
Mitchell revealed after joining Collingwood that a conversation with Craig Macrae about what he could add to the Pies’ midfield played into his decision. That should be music to the ears of KFC SuperCoaches. While Mitchell was pushed to half forward in the second half of 2022 as Hawthorn moved towards a younger midfield, he is set to be a key cog of the Collingwood engine room. Mitchell averaged 92.1 KFC SuperCoach points per 100 minutes forward last season and 102.2 as a midfielder. Those midfield numbers would have ranked Mitchell outside the top 20 for overall averages last year. But reinvigorated as a Magpie, and at only $528k, it’s understandable why so many KFC SuperCoaches are keen. In his absence at Hawthorn, expect Jai Newcombe to go to another level. James Worpel ($309k) could be the big beneficiary, while Dylan Moore ($521k) should get plenty of opportunity to build on his clearance average of two per game from 2022. Worpel averaged 97 in his second AFL season but has fallen out of favour in recent years, only featuring 11 times last season.
3. How much do Brodie Grundy/Max Gawn and Sean Darcy/Luke Jackson hurt each other’s scoring?
If you shook a magic eight ball, the result would likely be – outcome not so good. But honestly, who knows? There’s not much point going back and analysing when Gawn has previously played as one of two ruckmen as his new partnership with Grundy will be unlike anything we saw with Braydon Preuss, for example. The suggestion is that Grundy will start as the No.1 ruckman, or at least take a greater percentage of ruck duties early in the season. That will mean Gawn playing as a forward which will likely result in his average taking a hit. But the upside could be DPP as soon as Round 6. As for Darcy and Jackson, Jackson’s versatility will probably mean Darcy’s scoring doesn’t suffer significantly.
4. Will Ross Lyon play two ruckmen?
The new (?) Saints coach went for a one-ruckman and support set up for most of his last season in the AFL, when he led Fremantle in 2019. There were occasions where the Dockers played both Aaron Sandilands and Sean Darcy, but it was more often a Sandilands/Lobb or Darcy/Lobb combination. That bodes well for Rowan Marshall, as long as Lyon still prefers that same style four years on. Of course, the game has changed and it’s likely his tactical approach will to. But there’s at least some optimism the Saints might move away from playing two designated ruckmen as they did with Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall. Could we see a partnership involving Marshall and Jack Hayes (pending fitness)? That would likely mean Marshall playing 70+ per cent of matches in the middle and he has monstered teams when given the No.1 mantle. Back-up ruck Tom Campbell has been battling an achilles issue which might force Lyon’s hand.
5. Is Toby McLean really a steal?
Only Luke Beveridge can answer this at match committee in Round 1. It doesn’t feel all that long ago McLean was in the discussion of premium KFC SuperCoach forwards. It was in fact 2018, though, when the now 26-year-old averaged 94.7 points, posting eight tons in the opening 10 rounds. McLean has only played 16 games in the past three seasons but his elimination final against Fremantle left a big impression. McLean tallied 21 disposals and nine tackles against the Dockers and would have scored 100 KFC SuperCoach points. After his career was stymied by two knee reconstructions, McLean is available for a discount of more than $100k on his 2022 price – and by all reports he was flying in pre-season before undergoing hand surgery. You’ve got to pick him if he’s named Round 1, even if his job security is a bit flimsy. Over to you Bevo. Here’s your chance to win us back.
6. What will Will Ashcroft average?
I’ve asked our draft experts who guessed 83 and 85-90. So that’s good enough for me. Sam Walsh was lauded for his impact in a record-breaking debut season and averaged 86.9 KFC SuperCoach points. Nick Daicos managed 91.3 points a game but had a friendlier role than Walsh – and likely Ashcroft – playing across halfback for most of his debut campaign with Collingwood. Ashcroft’s junior – and VFL – numbers rightfully have KFC SuperCoaches excited. But maybe temper expectation on him bursting onto the scene with a 90+ average, especially when Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley will be the two big guns in the middle and are proven KFC SuperCoach studs. Just enjoy Ashcroft’s rise. Even if he averages 70, 80+ per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams will be in the same boat as yours if you start him.
Today's #SuperCoach thread...
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) January 15, 2023
What does Will Ashcroft average?
7. How many $600k defenders can you justify?
There are five $600k+ defenders this year and every one of their premium price tags in justified. Jack Sinclair and James Sicily are $626k and $624k respectively, while Tom Stewart ($604k), Sam Docherty ($603k) and Jordan Dawson ($602k) are also in the $600k club. Most coaches will find it difficult to start with more than two of these players, especially with the four premier KFC SuperCoach on-ballers priced at $660k or more. If you can somehow squeeze in a third $600k+ defender, you’ll be a step ahead of thousands of others. But if it comes at a significant cost like missing out on a top midfielder, you have to question if it’s worth it. For what it’s worth I have Stewart and Dawson locked in. Your other option is to look at potential breakouts such as Mason Redman and Hayden Young and spend up elsewhere.
8. Will Nick Daicos average 100 for the first time (of we presume many)?
Let’s take a look at some similar talents and how they fared in year two of KFC SuperCoach. Sam Walsh went from an 86.9 average to 101.1, Clayton Oliver lifted his output from 70.3 to 111.5 and Bailey Smith jumped from 76.6 to 92.1. Of course, those three are elite talents, but all signs suggest Daicos is in the same category – or at least will be very soon. If his role across halfback continues, he will arguably have a better role than Walsh, Oliver and Smith did in their second seasons to accumulate KFC SuperCoach points. Not many second-year players step straight into a midfield role and dominate. But of course, Daicos isn’t most players. The Rising Star winner of 2022 blitzed Collingwood’s time trial and has already been touted for extra time in the Magpies’ midfield in 2023. Daicos averaged 94 KFC SuperCoach points from Round 12 onwards and it would take a braver coach than me to suggest he won’t go at least six points better.
What does Nick Daicos average in #SuperCoach this year?
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) January 14, 2023
9. How good will Taranto and Hopper really be as Tigers?
Taranto was a victim of his own versatility at the Giants which is why he’s still available as FWD this year. Don’t expect that FWD-MID split to continue at the Tigers, who are stacked with mid-sized and small forwards. Richmond has touted it will unleash Taranto in a full-time midfield role, which is great news for KFC SuperCoach teams. We’re expecting a spike back close to his 2019 numbers of 102 points a game. Hopper has never averaged 100 so expecting triple figures might be a bit optimistic. But he averaged at least 90.9 from 2019-2021 and that’d be a great result for $332k.
10. How many kids make West Coast’s Round 1 side?
In a perfect world, Campbell Chesser, Elijah Hewett, Reuben Ginbey and Coby Burgiel. Chesser has reportedly been managed through pre-season after injury ruined his debut campaign, so a Round 1 appearance might be a long shot. Monitor his progress though. Hewett already has senior experience in the WAFL and could provide an immediate x-factor at half-forward. Ginbey surely won’t have to wait long to taste senior football and Burgiel should be a chance to debut in the first half of the campaign. Put this quartet on your watch list. It’s a bit early in pre-season to make a definitive call on how many/or if any make the cut for Round 1.
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11. Who will be the breakout midfielder of 2023?
The Phantom has office bragging rights after his sterling 2022 campaign so we’ll say Tom Green. Green blasted out of the blocks last season with scores of 164, 106 and 147. By Round 7, he had six tons and a 92 and it seemed certain he would join the elite bracket of KFC SuperCoach midfielders. But his scoring tailed off badly in the run home, posting 58 or less four times in the last six rounds as he finished with a season average of 97. The Giants have lost Tim Taranto, Tanner Bruhn and Jacob Hopper, giving Green the perfect opportunity to go from midfield rotation to on-ball leader. As Luke Davies-Uniacke averaged more than 100 last year (technically breakout territory), we’ll tip Green as the player to climb to new heights this year. Hope you’re happy Phantom.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2023: 11 burning pre-season questions answered
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