KFC SuperCoach 2021: The Phantom answers the burning questions ahead of Round 10

He is averaging 129 KFC SuperCoach points in the past month, so why is no one picking Darcy Parish? The Phantom tackles this week’s big selection issues.

Is it bird?

Is it a plane?

Is it Tom Green’s second quarter against the Tigers?

No, it’s just the bye rounds ready to crash down on all of us.

There are only two more standard weeks of KFC SuperCoach before three six-game rounds hit.

And, trust me, they will hit.

Trade, plan, dream with them in mind.

Read Tim Michell’s splendid bye-round planner if you need some help getting sorted.

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Jack Steele is great buying in KFC SuperCoach. Picture: Michael Klein

So, Jack Steele isn’t a must then?

It all depends on your team.

At $569k - $89k less than his starting price – the St Kilda skipper, who is averaging 114 points per game, is the cheapest player in the KFC SuperCoach top 10.

He’s fallen away slightly after a big opening month but Steele has still posted KFC SuperCoach tons in four of his past five matches.

It’s great buying.

But Steele will be missing in Round 14, just like a number of other popular premiums.

When lockout lifted, I went from Tom Powell to Steele for less than $200k – hello! – but then I looked at my bye-round structure and cried.

So look at your Round 14 premium count before committing to the Saints star.

SC Plus tells me even if Steele scores three low-range KFC SuperCoach tons in the next four weeks, his price will drop to below $550k ahead of Round 15. Of course, a big score changes that.

Is it time to trade Powell?

In a pure stock market sense, now is the time.

The rookie ball magnet has added $222k to his starting price tag, after posting three scores of 96 or more in an impressive start to his career.

But, after finishing with just 10 disposals, his lowest tally so far, and 45 points – despite attending 13 centre bounces - Powell’s price dropped for the first time and, with a Round 10 breakeven of 106, it could happen again.

And, like I mentioned above, his $375k price tag makes it easy to upgrade.

One thing, though. The 19-year-old tallied 14 disposals – his second-fewest for the year – and 49 points in Round 3 against the Dogs. A week later he raised the bat for the first KFC SuperCoach ton of his career.

If he isn’t rested, Powell is unlikely to score in the 40s again - can you say that about your forward rookies?

TRADE GUIDE: ALL THE TOP ROUND 10 TARGETS TO CONSIDER

Tom Powell scored a season-low 45 points in Round 9. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos

What about Chad Warner?

The young Swan’s price has fallen for three consecutive weeks – but only by a total of $15k. And, with his breakeven remaining steady at 73, even if he can’t break the 60-point cycle – Warner has scored 61, 61 and 58 in the past three rounds – he may only lose another $5k in Round 10.

And, while Warner’s CBAs were down from 10 to four against Collingwood, the second-year midfielder is still a safe on-field option.

But, given his $322k price tag, have no hesitation in turning him into a forward premium this round.

Forward premium … there is such a thing?

I still can’t really answer that but the top-six picture is becoming more clear.

And by that, I mean Brisbane’s Dayne Zorko is another three-figure man we can be sure about.

His inconsistency is well known. Zorko posted eight KFC SuperCoach tons – two of them in excess of 158 – but also five scores of 74 or less to finish with an average of 98 last year.

It was a similar story in 2018, with the Lions star finishing with a season average of 96 after recording five scores of 120 more but also failing to reach the 70-point mark on five other occasions.

Zorko still posted scores of 76, 63, 76 and 61 in 2019 but 14 KFC SuperCoach tons saw him average 107 points per game.

Dayne Zorko has pushed his season average past three figures. Picture: Michael Klein

This year, you guessed it, has followed a similar path. The 32-year-old dropped scores of 70 and 64 in the opening four rounds but he already had six three-figure scores for the season.

And, after the horrible day down in Ballarat in Round 4, Zorko has posted scores of 101, 102, 92, 105 and 140. His role – in terms of his starting positions, anyway – hasn’t changed dramatically with Lachie Neale missing but his 14 CBAs against the Suns proves he’s still a big part of the midfield rotation. And, most importantly, still as effective going forward.

Anyway, short story, get on.

But what if I don’t have Dusty, Phantom?

Good question. Both have low breakevens – Martin 68 and Zorko 60 – so they won’t be at their current price for long.

Martin likes playing against Brisbane, with scores of 111, 108 and 141 in his past three minor-round meetings with the Lions, and was back to his dominant best with 28 disposals, four goals and 121 points last week.

But, if you’ve got your eyes on both – and you should – Zorko at $511k and Martin in the next two rounds – at still less than $500k – might be the way to go. If there’s no huge score from the three-time Norm Smith Medallist in Round 10, there’s a chance he’ll be around the $500k mark coming off the bye, too.

What about Isaac Heeney?

Let’s ask John Longmire.

“It’s only one game back,” the Sydney coach said when asked about Heeney’s fitness and performance on Monday.

“That’s the thing, it changes from week to week.

“He’s pulled up pretty well this week. He won’t do a lot (at training), he never does a lot early in the week anyway.

“Hopefully he’s able to train on Thursday and get some work under his belt.

Right.

Longmire isn’t even talking about the broken hand that Heeney had surgery on following the Round 6 clash with the Bombers.

Heeney missed in Round 8 after he felt soreness in the right ankle he needed surgery on last year.

The value is there, the scoring potential is there, and it’s only going to cost you $20k from teammate Warner.

But is he going to get through another 13 matches without being sore?

You can answer that one yourself.

Geelong star Patrick Dangerfield is eyeing a Round 13 return. Picture: Alison Wynd

Don’t forget about Danger, Phant

I’m not, don’t worry.

And you shouldn’t either.

Patrick Dangerfield is aiming for a return in Round 13, following Geelong’s Round 12 bye.

With a breakeven of 198, the star Cat’s price is set to plummet. Even if he reaches three figures in his first game back, Dangerfield will fall to around $570k. And he’s likely to have another big breakeven the following week.

But given how many popular premiums are missing in Round 14, going early on Dangerfield before he bottoms out is something we all must consider.

Of course, it all depends how he performs on return but planning is key, friends.

Is Caleb Daniel still worth a look?

I’m pushing my word count so we’ll keep it short.

Yes.

Or is Jordan Ridley better value?

I think so, yes. But, with breakeven of 98, you can probably wait another week or two on Ridley and monitor his form.

Could Clayton Oliver’s score have been bigger?

Yes. Oliver had 11 clangers – five of them free kicks against and all had a negative effect on his final score of 140. $605k is still very good buying.

What about Tom Mitchell’s?

No. His three contested possessions against North melbourne was the lowest non-injury-affected tally of his career. He had zero in 13% game-time against the Blues in 2013 but in every other one of his 135 matches, he’s had at least four.

After tallying a season-high 17 in Round 8, was it an instruction with the return of Jaeger O’Meara?

Riley Collier-Dawkins at Tigers training. Picture: Jake Nowakowski.

Is it too late for RCD?

Given the lack of downgrade options, there’s still plenty of merit in jumping on Riley Collier-Dawkins at $182k, following an 88-point performance against the Giants, ahead of Round 10. The tall-midfielder attended a team-high 24 centre bounces and scored 58 points in the second-half as the Tigers came storming home. Even if he scores 70 in the next three matches, he’ll add another $100k to his price tag before the Round 13 bye.

But if Port Adelaide’s Lachie Jones returns for Sunday’s clash with the Magpies – and he’s a chance – he will be the best downgrade option this round, given the draftee is on the bubble with a -47 breakeven.

Are we sleeping on Darcy Parish?

Yes. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who thought the young Bomber couldn’t maintain the numbers he produced on ANZAC Day. While he hasn’t posted another 162-point score, Parish has had more disposals than any other player in the past four rounds. He also ranks fourth for clearances and 11th for score involvements and is averaging 129 KFC SuperCoach points since Round 5, after assuming a long-awaited centre-bounce midfield role.

Then what’s the word for what we’re doing with Sam Docherty?

Great question.