KFC SuperCoach 2021: Round 3 trade guide

Lachie Neale is the most traded out player in KFC SuperCoach but Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako has reason for hope.

The most important trade period of the KFC SuperCoach season is upon us.

Player prices will begin to change after Round 3, meaning this will be the last chance you get to make any corrective trades before one of your players loses value or one you missed out on explodes.

Usually, KFC SuperCoaches use their two Round 3 trades to make sure they have all the right, money-making rookies, sometimes at the expense of a failed mid-pricer.

SCROLL DOWN FOR THE BEST ROUND 3 TRADE TARGETS

But there is often temptation to jump off a premium — even if they are a rolled-gold star - if they’ve underperformed in the opening two rounds.

And, with Lachie Neale and Patrick Cripps dishing up another sub-par score in Round 2, that temptation is going to be hard to resist for some.

So, is it the right call?

SUPERCOACH PLUS: 11 SECRET STATS TO SAVE YOUR TEAM

Lachie Neale has scored 76 and 77 in the opening two rounds. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/AFL Photos

FANTASY FREAKO’S FORMGUIDE

If you don’t need to make any correction trades ahead of Round 3, then you’re in a very unique position. Most SuperCoaches need to make at least one correction trade, if not two and this is the week to do it ahead of price changes.

First and foremost, jumping on the boom rookies you’ve missed is of utmost importance. They are essentially the stepping stone in terms of trading up to premiums, so acquiring them this round is crucial. But speaking of premiums, there have also been a quite a few that have underperformed across the opening two rounds and are set for a major price fall.

So, the question is, do you chase the rookies or punt the underperformers? Or do you mix it up and knab a rookie and drop an underperformer? There’s no right or wrong answer as it comes down to how much you value a trade.

Lachie Neale is the player most under the pump ahead of his clash against Collingwood on Thursday night after posting dismal returns of 77 and 75 points. You expect a lot more from the most expensive midfielder in the competition. To put that into context, he scored 157 and 171 in his opening two matches last season. Neale’s point average has plummeted by 58 per game, which is by far the biggest of any player in the league. He was blanketed by the Cats and had just three disposals and 13 points to his name at halftime – ranked 41st on the ground.

If you’re after silver lining, then his performance in the final term provides us with a glimmer of hope that he can recapture the form of 2020. Neale tallied eight disposals, six contested possessions, four clearances and 46 points – ranked second on the ground.

Lachie Neale arrives for Brisbane Lions training at North Port Oval, Port Melbourne. Picture: Michael Klein

Neale has the highest break even of any player in the AFL (257), so if you decide to keep him, then you need to see it out long-term. But if you are set on offloading him, then this is the round to do it.

Historically, Neale has dropped below 100 points in just one of his past seven games against Collingwood, however only one of these scores have exceeded 120. His numbers at Marvel Stadium are also strong, averaging 32 disposals, 13 contested possessions, one goal and 120 from five matches between 2018-19.

As we saw last week with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy, form can be recaptured and both bounced back after dropping below 100 points in the season opener.

As an owner of Neale, I’m still undecided as to what side on the fence I sit on. I also own Patrick Cripps who has also been well below his best, so this one could go right down to the wire!

Champion Data's top captain picks for Round 3.

LACHIE NEALE — TRADE OR HOLD?

- The Phantom

WHY YOU SHOULD TRADE

It’s all about money.

‘Shorting’ as the KFC SuperCoach investor, Dan Begala, puts it.

After scores of 77 and 76 in the opening two rounds — the latter thanks to a terrific tagging performance from Geelong’s Mark O’Conner on Friday night — Neale’s break even score in Round 3 is a terrifying 271.

Say he scores 100 this week, Neale will lose more than $70k off his $722k price tag. A third consecutive score of three figures or less against the Magpies — a team he’s scored 113, 91 and 104 against in the past three matches — will result in an even more dramatic fall.

And the numbers won’t be any more appealing the following week.

The idea is trading him before his price plunges, pick up another in-form big gun — say, Tom Mitchell — make $100k on that trade, and then target Neale as one of your first fallen premium upgrades for what you hope will be less than $600k.

That’s if he can begin dealing with the increased attention.

Ideally, for the trade to be deemed a success, you would need to make use of the immediate cash hit and improve your team elsewhere.

Then there’s Neale’s reported back issues, which were evident when he was on light duties at Brisbane training on Tuesday.

That might just be the tipping point for KFC SuperCoaches who were on the fence about trading.

Brownlow medalist Lachie Neale sore ahead of crunch clash against #Collingwood. Battling a back complaint and keeping it low key on the training track #afl @10NewsFirstMelbpic.twitter.com/v6LOaYTUUZ

— Caty Price (@caty_price) March 30, 2021

2021 #supercoach Price Projection-Lachie Neale
R1 77
R2 76
R3BE 264

Proj 100
R3 $722k->$648k($-74k)NewBE 201
R4 $648k->$603k($-46k)NewBE 152
R5 $603k->$579k($-23k)NewBE 139

Proj 120
R3 $722k->$657k($-65k)NewBE 187
R4 $657k->$627k($-30k)NewBE 126
R5 $627k->$624k($-3k)NewBE 126 https://t.co/0nyG7XLNwi

— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) March 26, 2021

If you are considering trading Neale then you must fix two problems not one, otherwise you are going backwards!

Also remember, you only lose cash if you trade him later, there is no losing cash if you hold.#supercoach

— General Soreness (@GenSorenessSC) March 26, 2021

WHY YOU SHOULD HOLD

A number of reasons. If Neale bounces back with a score of 120 or more against Collingwood — a side which conceded KFC SuperCoach tons to five Bulldogs midfielders in Round 1 — the chances of his price falling below $600k take a big hit.

And if that occurs, given it’s likely you will want the Brownlow Medallist, who averaged 130 points per game last season, in your finished side, the final savings after you trade him back in may not be all that much.

It comes down to what you think a trade is worth, money-wise.

Even if you believe you can justify the move in that sense, using a trade on Neale, along with another corrective one ahead of Round 3, if you’ve already used two, will make it harder for you to get a full premium side by the year’s end.

And, anyway, we don’t pick our premiums to make money so, arguably, their price is irrelevant if you’re going to back him in all year.

PHANTOM’S VERDICT:HOLD. Like I said above, we don’t pick premiums for their price and, Neale is still, in fact, that.

TIM’S VERDICT:HOLD. As much as it’s going to hurt to watch other coaches who faded Neale get him for $600k or less, you have to hold. By trading out a player who should still average 110+, you’re only hurting your chance of getting to full premium status. He needs to learn to shake a tag much better than he did against Sydney (R17 last year) and Geelong, but he won’t get that sort of attention every week — I hope.

Is Patrick Cripps still a KFC SuperCoach premium? Picture: Andrew Henshaw

PATRICK CRIPPS - TRADE OR HOLD?

- Tim Michell

WHY YOU SHOULD TRADE

So much for the Carlton co-captain being one of the biggest bargains of 2021 at $523k. At this rate, he’s going to lose value and dip below $500k in coming rounds. Cripps has had 28 and 21 disposals in his opening two games of the year, but only averaged 85 KFC SuperCoach points. That is in part to only recording eight kicks in both games - the last time his average was that low was in 2016.

If you tossed up between Sam Walsh and Cripps and went with Walsh, the opening two rounds have certainly vindicated your decision. It appears if either of Carlton’s big two is going to be a top-eight or top-10 midfielder this season, it’s going to be Walsh. In his last seven matches (including rounds 14-18 last year) Cripps only has one ton and has averaged 82.5 points - although that is dragged down by a score of 26 in Round 18.

He doesn’t seem to be suited to the speed the game is being played at this year and doesn’t have the same impact as players such as Dustin Martin, Nat Fyfe and Marcus Bontempelli when used in attack.

And now the Blues have revealed he was battling “soreness” in the opening two rounds.

Let’s assume Neale bounces back. Is Cripps going to eclipse Neale, Tom Mitchell, Jack Macrae, Clayton Oliver, Bontempelli, Zach Merrett, Christian Petracca, Fyfe and other premium midfielders? It’s a small sample size, but his 117 average from 2019 looks a long way off.

2021 #supercoach Price Projection*-Patrick Cripps
2020Av 97.5

R1Score 88
R2Score 82
R3BE 136

ProjScore 90
R3 $524k->$503k NewBE 123
R4 $503k->$488k NewBE 107
R5 $488k->$481k NewBE 104

ProjScore 100
R3 $524k->$508k NewBE 115
R4 $508k->$501k NewBE 94
R5 $501k->$503k NewBE 97 https://t.co/S6zi28V9lx

— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) March 25, 2021

Hey @Supercoach where’s the trade button? pic.twitter.com/DH6J22lj50

— Al Paton (@al_superfooty) March 25, 2021

WHY YOU SHOULD HOLD

Every trade is golden in KFC SuperCoach and by sideways trading a player you hoped would be a keeper this early in the season, you decrease your chances of getting to full premium status.

Say you went from Cripps to a premium you missed out on - maybe Clayton Oliver or Tom Mitchell. That’s going to cost you $90k for Mitchell, plus a trade, or $130k and a trade for Oliver. It’s a big price to pay, although those downgrading $200k players such as Paddy Dow or Joe Daniher will have the spare cash to at least consider it.

The other temptation will be to use Jordan Clark or Rory Laird’s DPP and trade him straight to a defender such as Jordan Ridley or Caleb Daniel.

Cripps has been the target of taggers in the past, but the form of Walsh means he will surely avoid those this year.

Cripps averages 105.5 (Fremantle), 112.1 (Gold Coast), 111.5 (Port Adelaide) and 104.4 (Brisbane Lions) against Carlton’s next four opponents. Those aren’t necessarily the uber-premium numbers we wanted, but if he starts posting triple figures you can at least hold with a plan to have him as your M7 or M8.

If you don’t have the right rookies, they must be your priority over punting an underperforming premium. After all, Cripps won’t lose much value anyway.

TIM’S VERDICT:ON THE FENCE - I’ve banked $70k by going Dangerfield to Dustin Martin so I have options, but the idea which appeals most is swinging Jordan Clark to midfield and bringing in Jordan Ridley, Caleb Daniel or Jayden Short - depending on which of this trio dominates in Round 2.

PHANTOM’S VERDICT:HOLD. Unless you didn’t use two trades last week and you have no other pressing issues - like all the wrong rookies.

ROUND 3 TRADE TARGETS

Note: Click here to see the rookies you need in your team this week

Taylor Walker $298,200 FWD

The Adelaide skipper was in just 584 starting teams (that jumped to bout 5000 after Round 1) and incredibly has the third lowest break-even of any player (-114). After scoring 146 and 143 in his first two games, another ton would see Tex’s price jump by almost $100k. Walker is reinvigorated, the new rules seem to favour key forwards and his upcoming draw is inviting — Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Hawthorn, GWS before running into Port Adelaide.

What a time to be alive #supercoachpic.twitter.com/hbT6lmJpIo

— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) March 28, 2021

Jarman Impey $212,800 FWD

Forget that pre-season talk about Impey being a safe selection for 70 points a week - he’s much better than that. Impey is thriving in a new role as a rebounding defender, posting scores of 64 and 123 in his first two games — well above the similarly-priced Joe Daniher and Paddy Dow. With a break-even of -62 and projected price rise of at least $50,000, he’s almost in must-have territory.

Jarman Impey is set for a huge price rise.

Changkuoth Jiath $266,500 DEF

Speaking of rebounding Hawthorn defenders, Jiath is also firmly on the radar after scoring 119 against Richmond — but then he should have been when Gilbert Gardiner listed him in his seven must-have selections back in January. Jiath made plenty of mistakes against the Tigers but expect Clarko to back him in.

Jordan Ridley $547,700 DEF

Ridley was a shining light in a tough year for the Bombers in 2020 and he is showing all signs of going to another level this year. He ranks fourth in the AFL for effective kicks and collected 32 disposals and seven marks against Port Adelaide. After scores of 125 and 136 he is set for a sharp price increase. If you don’t quite have the cash for Ridley, Jayden Short (100, 120) is also backing up the pre-season hype for about $28,000 less.

Clayton Oliver $656,700 MID

Hat tip to those KFC SuperCoach players who started Oliver instead of Lachie Neale as their No.1 midfielder — after two rounds he is more than 100 points ahead of the Brownlow medallist. On those numbers we couldn’t blame anyone for a sideways move but Oliver’s sky-high price means he has to score 130 next week (after 122 and 133 in the first two rounds) to avoid a price drop himself. But we will all want him at some stage.

Port Adelaide young gun Zak Butters.

Zak Butters $471,400 FWD

Butters looked good against North Melbourne in Round 1 (98), then looked absolutely incredible on his sway to 163 against the Bombers on the back of 36 disposals, six tackles and six clearances. Butters’ midfield time is up and his scoring is following. Can he keep it up or will he be the Connor Rozee of 2021 (av 135 for the first two rounds in 2020 then about 60 for the rest of the year)?

Dougal Howard $355,200 DEF

Mid-price full-backs come with a huge warning label in KFC SuperCoach but Howard has to be worth a look after scores of 99 and 133 in the opening rounds. Taking the kick-outs for the Saints is a big plus but the fact he averaged 66 over 17 games last year — and has never averaged more than 73 — probably counts him out.

Darcy Moore $430,200 DEF

Two years ago Moore was a great KFC SuperCoach pick, but back then we were just crossing our fingers he would get through games without getting hurt. Now he is a whole lot more (pardon the pun). Moore has taken 13 intercept marks this season — four more than the No.2 ranked Jake Lever — which is notable because this is one of the highest scoring stats in SuperCoach, which explains scores of 118 and 119 in the first two rounds. Mr Consistency?

Darcy Moore is in All-Australian form.

Jack Lukosius $430,800 DEF

The former No.2 draft pick showed signs as a key defender last season he could be a KFC SuperCoach star, and that development has been put into overdrive by a move to the wing in 2021. Lukosius has posted scores of 102 and 110 and faces Adelaide and Carlton in his next two matches.

Sam Walsh $543,300 MID

See everything we wrote last week about him being a prime Matt Rowell replacement. On a disappointing night overall for the Blues last Thursday Walsh was the team’s top-scorer, posting 105 against the Pies to back up 122 in Round 1. A 105-plus average looks on the cards but with a break-even of 91 in Round 3, you don’t have to drop everything to get him this week.