KFC SuperCoach 2020: All the Round 5 late mail and The Phantom’s trade advice
More than 23,000 KFC SuperCoaches have traded Docker Nathan O’Driscoll into their side. But will he even play on Sunday? Here’s all the latest team news and trade advice.
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KFC SuperCoaches are sweating on Fremantle’s final 22, after popular trade target Nathan O’Driscoll was named on an extended bench for the clash with the Bombers.
Being named on the interchange wouldn’t normally sound alarm bells, but Dockers Caleb Serong, Alex Pearce and Darcy Tucker are in line to return.
To make things worse, only Lachie Schultz is out after entering the AFL’s Covid protocols, and last week’s sub Bailey Banfield has all-but been confirmed to take his place.
More than 23,000 KFC SuperCoaches had traded O’Driscoll in ahead of Thursday night’s first bounce.
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Sure, the on-field 22 could still change before the final team is named at 5pm (aest) on Friday but, if not, who misses out from this extended bench?
G.Logue, C.Serong, N.O’Driscoll, H.Chapman, D.Tucker, N.Erasmus, N.Wilson, S.Switkowski.
The first one might be Logue, given Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir’s reluctance to play three tall defenders.
“Likely,” Longmuir answered when probed about playing two of Logue, Pearce and Brennan Cox on Thursday.
“I probably thought earlier in the year we were a bit top-heavy with three talls and Luke Ryan and Chappy, who both play as that third tall.
“We felt we were vulnerable against a smaller type forward line and feel like that mix is better for us the past couple of weeks.”
Draftee Neil Eramus could be one of the unlucky ones to miss out, while Nathan Wilson could work his way back from injury through the WAFL.
So could it come down to Tucker v O’Driscoll?
For many, the first part of the trade fell in to place with injured Crow Mitch Hinge out of Matthew Nicks’ side for the clash with the Tigers.
But he’s been listed as omitted on the team sheet, and has been named as the first emergency – I’m still not sure what to think there.
For others, it was Josh Gibcus being rested for the same game.
Unless you were using the money from the O’Driscoll trade to, say, bring in Aaron Hall – like me – all you need to do is hold off on pulling the trigger until we get the final Dockers’ team on Friday afternoon.
With all of those names returning at once, however, it does throw some doubt over O’Driscoll’s long-term cash generation, even if he does hold his place this week.
But he was very impressive against the Giants and it could still be his spot to lose.
In other team news, Jack Hayes will return for the Saints in the absence of Paddy Ryder, in a big boost for the owners of Braydon Preuss, who will miss through suspension.
Have the luxury of choosing between Hayes and Hugh Dixon?
I am leaning towards going with the Eagles’ SSP signing, given his 96 points in Round 4 and Nic Naitanui’s injury. Bailey Williams has been named to lead the ruck, but Dixon’s role should still increase on last week.
Carlton also confirmed Patrick Cripps will sit out this weekend’s game against the Power, despite scans confirming there was no significant damage to his hamstring.
Every KFC SuperCoach is asking themselves one question, is there such thing as a one-week hamstring?
But if I did have Cripps, I’d take the Blues on their word for now, and hold him.
If you’re doing that, try to give yourself two goes at his bench cover replacement, by putting the E on a someone playing earlier in the round.
Burning questions: Keepers, Cripps and trading Zak
Patrick Cripps has just about been the difference to a good KFC SuperCoach score and a bad one every week this season.
In Round 4, however, after averaging 138 in the first three matches, this time it was for all the wrong reasons.
The Carlton skipper was subbed out early in the second term against the Suns, finishing with just 38 KFC SuperCoach points.
Those who didn’t jump – yours truly – got lucky, while those who had him captain had an otherwise solid round ruined in the final game.
The question of what to do now is the one being asked across the KFC SuperCoach community this week.
But there are a few others, too…
So there is luck involved in KFC SuperCoach?
C’mon, everyone knows that. Some will say they didn’t trade Cripps in because of the injury risk. Others – like me – just didn’t have anyone suitable to trade out.
I held Jack Steele instead. The Saints skipper scoring back-to-back 120s isn’t luck, we know how good he is, but Cripps hurting his hamstring and scoring just 38 is basically just bad luck for most others.
Continue to mitigate risk where possible, but we’ll all probably cop some terrible KFC SuperCoach luck along the way.
Like Braydon Preuss scoring two tons then getting suspended?
Hmm. It’s unlucky for you, sure, but more just stupid from the man himself, who did also miss the opening round through suspension.
Thankfully, it’s Hugh Dixon szn.
Hang on, what?
Eagles ruckman Nic Naitanui is out for an extended period with a knee injury, so it’s Hugh Dixon’s time.
The young big man, a SSP signing, scored 96 KFC SuperCoach points, on the back of 18 disposals, 10 contested possessions and six marks, against the Magpies, and is a near certainty to now hold his spot, despite the pending return of Oscar Allen.
Given Dixon’s impressive showing forward of centre, Bailey Williams is the one likely to replace Naitanui as the lead ruckman but, regardless, it’s the next Preuss owners wanted to hear ahead of Round 5.
The suspension of Paddy Ryder at St Kilda means Jack Hayes is also chance to play.
Even if you don’t need the cover, with breakevens of -60 (Dixon) and -15 (Hayes), we all need the cash.
Back to Cripps, what should we do with him?
With extra trades this season, if he was out for two or more, I’d be trading.
But the damage is less than first thought, and he’s only just going to miss one - well that’s what Carlton are saying.
For what it’s worth, I would probably be holding.
In terms of replacements, though, if you think it will be more, Tom Green – predictable I know – is the straight swap at $524k. He only had 17 disposals, after averaging 31 in the opening three rounds, but he spent plenty of time forward in the second half given the Giants’ scoring issues and his two-goal second-quarter blitz. He still scored 92 points.
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Another point-of-difference, Callum Mills is in reach at $586k. He might fall slightly again with a breakeven of 145 this week but that 70-point score will soon drop out of his rolling average. And he’s already reminded KFC SuperCoaches of his scoring power, posting 147 and 130 already this year, despite a very limited pre-season.
Jack Steele is $50k down on his starting price but scores of 121 and 125 in the past two weeks means that figure should remain steady. You’re going to use the trade anyway so, if you have the money, don’t be afraid to make that reverse trade.
It’s not too late for Docker Will Brodie, either, if you want to make some money off the move. Either swing a forward rookie into the midfield or just play Brodie in the middle for the time being.
After a huge 37-disposal, 135-point performance against the Giants, Brodie’s breakeven is -16, so there’s still plenty of money to be made.
In this form, you probably won’t be looking to trade him out anytime soon, anyway.
I also like the Tim English move, if you don’t trust the rookie rucks as cover for Preuss. Or, if you just want to use the Cripps injury to jump on a top-six certainty in the forward line.
The Bulldogs big man is averaging 117 points per game, but is still reasonable buying at $539k.
Did you just say Will Brodie is a keeper?
Did you?
He’s currently the sixth-ranked KFC SuperCoach forward and the only time he’s scored less than 90 was in Round 1 when he was stuck on the bench for 20 minutes in the last quarter.
To be fair, he played even less game-time (61 per cent) a week later, but still scored a KFC SuperCoach ton.
That time-on-ground has risen to 83 and 73 in the past two rounds but, as I’ve been saying in this column since Round 1, he doesn’t need to be an 85 per cent man to score well.
What about George Hewett?
Yep. Just get him in – that’s four KFC SuperCoach tons on-the-trot now. Six* if you include the pre-season matches. Eight if you include the final two games of last year.
*He scored 99 in the practice match against the Saints, but close enough.
Bigger question, though, Phant…Matt Rowell?
A good question indeed. He was the best player on the ground in Round 1 against the Eagles, tallying 33 disposals and 151 points.
But in the past three weeks, Rowell has failed to have more than 19 touches.
Is it form? Role? Opposition? Maybe a bit of all three.
He still had 13 tackles and scored 103, despite finishing with just 18 disposals, in Round 3, so I’m not giving up hope just yet. His breakeven of 68 is very manageable anyway. Ask me again next week.
I’ve given up hope on Zak Butters, should I trade?
No.
Are you sure?
Yes.
But…
No buts. The kid scored 114 and 136 in the opening two rounds before being on the receiving end of a big accident hit from teammate Sam Powell-Pepper in the Showdown.
The collision was the same week he spent a little bit more time forward in the absence of Robbie Gray - and Charlie Dixon and Orazio Fantasia - to help try and address Port’s scoring issues.
It happened again in the loss to the Dees, too, with Butters starting inside-50 and attending just eight centre bounces for the match.
In comparison, the young star was at the restart of play 14 times in Round 1 and 17 times in Round 2.
He had 15 second-half disposals last week, too, but the match was well-and-truly over by then.
And the good news is Gray is a good chance to return for the clash with Carlton on Sunday.
Remember, I told you not to trade out Josh Rachele early last week so just listen, OK?
Speaking of rookies, is Docker Nathan O’Driscoll a must?
He’s close.
Forget that he’s already had a price rise – a $167k rookie who’s coming off a KFC SuperCoach ton and has a breakeven of -54, the third-lowest in the competition, is great buying.
But he’s not just that.
The second-year midfielder has impressed on the outside so far this season, as he did in the reserves during his first year on the Dockers list.
But he won 62 per cent of his possession in a contest at WAFL League level during his draft year.
That type of contested-ball game, coupled with rapidly-developing outside skills and we’ve got big KFC SuperCoach scoring potential.
And I didn’t even mentioning the penetrating left-foot and 89 points in the pre-season practice match against the Eagles.
You didn’t mention Clayton Oliver as a Cripps replacement?
Patience is key, my friends.
After scoring just 68 points against the Power, Oliver’s price took another $24k hit.
Another sub-100 score this week and he’ll be down near $600k with a breakeven of close to 200.
And the Giants, in particular Matt de Boer and Lachie Ash, are waiting.
The Demons star averages just 84 points in seven career games against GWS. In Round 3 last year, de Boer – who came off the ground injured – held Oliver to 67.
Sure, Ash might be the go-to tagger this season and Christian Petracca is a target now, too. But why wouldn’t Leon Cameron revert to a tactic that has worked so well?
If something similar happens, we’re talking $560k.
Did I tell you how much I love, Leon?
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